By Michael Hastings

NewsweekSept. 20 issue - Richard Pearce has turned out his old love, a 1989 Dodge pickup truck. In 2002 the 50-year-old retired soldier and his wife decided to bring a Toyota Prius hybrid back to their Virginia home. They "fell in love with the technology," which uses an electric motor at low speeds and a small engine at high speeds to power the car with a lot less gas. Now a new, 2004 Prius sits in the garage alongside the older model, and the pickup languishes in the driveway, used sparingly to haul garbage to the landfill. Pearce says he'd never think of taking the truck on his 26-mile commute. It gets less than 20 miles a gallon, while the Prius gets 60, so he wouldn't be able to use the special lane Virginia has set up for fuel-efficient cars. "We'll never have anything but a hybrid again," he says.

Pearce's extreme embrace of the Prius was once the stuff of wild dreams for the Toyota engineers who developed the brand. They had hoped the gas-electric hybrid, introduced in Japan in 1997, would become nothing less than a new Corolla or Camry—sedans that made the company's reputation in America. Last year sales of those two models helped push Toyota past Ford to become the world's second largest carmaker, laying huge tire tracks for the unproven Prius to fill. The first hybrids sold at such a high premium over regular sedans that buyers couldn't save enough on fuel to come out ahead—yet were so expensive to make, Toyota took a big loss on each one. While Toyota's engineers made grand statements about the car of the future, its bean counters wondered whether there would ever be a mainstream market for these things.

The answer has caught Toyota off guard. Since October, Toyota has had to increase production of the Prius three times, most dramatically in August when it announced a 50 percent boost for next year to 15,000 vehicles a month worldwide. That's a fraction of its Corolla output, but enough to raise serious questions about whether Toyota innovations are once again leading a major revolution in the American market. While the automaker plans to send most of the new production run to the United States, there are still 22,000 customers on waiting lists for the car. "We didn't know how the consumers would react to this technology," says Don Esmond, a senior vice president and general manager at Toyota. "They've voted for it, they've voted with their dollars."

To be sure, the hybrid phenomenon is still only a ripple in the pool of American gas guzzlers. The highest estimates for the United States predict annual sales of 500,000 hybrid cars by 2009—about 3 percent of the 16.7 million car market. Analysts think that the price of fuel would have to hit $3 a gallon to see bigger sales sooner. Yet already the Prius is the first significant departure from the combustion engine to make any major inroads in the auto industry since Henry Ford invented the Model T in 1908. And major carmakers have learned never to ignore the ambitions of Toyota, arguably the best-run big automobile company in the world, with a reported stock-market value of $107 billion, almost four times more than GM or Ford. "For Toyota," says prominent Japanese car critic and environmental-technology specialist Tadashi Tateuchi, the hybrid car "may well be the key to world domination."


The key to the Prius story is rapidly advancing technology. The original project was launched in 1993 under the code name G21, for 21st Century Generation, with strong backing from Toyota chairman Shoichirou Toyoda, an heir of the founder. When the first Prius was unveiled seven years ago, it was an undersized, underpowered and overpriced experimental box of a car, which competitors felt free to ignore. Most rivals said they would concentrate on fuel cells and other fuel-efficient technology that wouldn't be widely available until 2010. When Toyota introduced the Prius to North America in 2000, it sold only 15,000 cars its first year—a minor hit, but mainly with environmentalists and Hollywood liberals like Leonardo DiCaprio and Cameron Diaz.

Toyota's napping rivals had given it a five- to 10-year technological lead by the time the new Prius came out last October, says Tateuchi. The new model's electric motor was 50 percent more powerful, its interior was almost twice as roomy and its body was designed to look like a futuristic sedan rather than an ecological-science project. The redesign cost Toyota untold millions, and putting that much into a product that "consumers didn't even know they wanted yet," says Esmond, was "a bit of a crapshoot."

The new Prius appears to be moving rapidly out of its green niche. Sales in the United States shot up by 153 percent in the first half of this year, by a whopping 874 percent in Europe; in Japan they increased tenfold. According to Esmond, once skeptical rivals are now jumping on the bandwagon. "I don't want to say they're scrambling, but they are trying to quickly put together their own hybrids," he says.

So far Honda has given Toyota the only competition for the hybrid market with the Civic and the Insight. But the first hybrid SUV, Ford's Escape, hits the streets in September. Nissan recently announced that its hybrid Altima sedan will arrive next year. Later this year Dodge plans to roll out a diesel-electric pickup. GM plans hybrid —models of the GMC Sierra and the Chevy Silverado. Honda plans to unveil a hybridized Accord in the fall. Hyundai says its hybrid will be ready in "the near future." According to CSM Worldwide, a Detroit-based research firm, by 2007 there will be some 22 hybrid options for popular models, including even Hummer's H2.

In America the lust for the largest gas guzzlers seems to be slowly waning. Though SUVs are still the top-selling vehicles, the mix of SUVs is tilting toward smaller models. And because big SUVs have driven the average gas mileage of the American fleet down to 20.4 miles per gallon, its lowest level in two decades, the Big Four automakers risk falling afoul of fuel-efficiency regulations. That's one reason many of the new American hybrid designs are for SUV models. But the bigger reason is Toyota. "We can't just sit here as a major corporation and say, 'Trust us, you'll get a fuel cell from us and in the meantime, we're not doing anything'," says GM vice chair-?man Bob Lutz. "With more and more of our competitors playing the hybrid card, there was just no way we could ignore that."

Europe has been slower to respond. It has already chosen diesel as its cleaner, more efficient fuel, and the diesel market is dominated by German carmakers. Indeed, one reason Toyota pursued hybrids was that it was so far behind in the diesel market. But growing sales of the new Prius could change all that. Lindsay Brooke, an analyst at CSM, says every big car company has to be thinking that "if the Japanese kick-start this thing, you've got to have this technology on the shelf, especially if the fuel price really rises."

The Prius faces two critical turning points before it can be called a true mass-market car. It needs to be profitable, and practical. When Toyota first introduced the Prius, it was reportedly losing $3,000 on each car. The company now says the line is profitable, but analysts aren't convinced. "I know engineers at rival carmakers who've done total teardowns of the Prius—comprehensive, bolt-by-bolt cost analysis," says Brooke. "Toyota is getting close to breaking even," probably within the next five years.

Reaching that point takes longer for the consumer. Most hybrids sell for $2, 000 to $3,000 more than comparable sedans, and drivers would need at least 10 years and 100,000 miles to recoup that much in gas savings, analysts say. But those who say hybrids must narrow that gap to boost sales ignore the power of instant gratification: Richard Pearce says he pays $10 a week in gas, compared with his neighbor's $60.

Last year Toyota launched a U.S. ad campaign pitching the Prius as a big, sexy "real car," not a green techno curiosity. One spot called Prius "the world's biggest hybrid," and showed the universe being sucked into the car's yawning rear hatch. The ad also noted that "you never plug it in"—an attempt to distance the Prius from old electric cars. A Toyota ad this summer billed "mpg" as more peaceful getaways, over a picture of a scantily clad couple on the beach.

It's also worth noting how much attention Toyota is focusing on hybrid technology. Toyota is posting record sales and building a cash reserve of more than $40 billion while other carmakers are struggling. "They could eat a number of other car manufacturers for lunch without even noticing it on their balance sheet," says auto analyst Ryan Tutak at Ducker Worldwide. Yet Toyota has avoided the recent frenzy of industry mergers and instead focused on key models, including hybrids. A hybrid luxury SUV will appear next year and a hybrid Camry in 2006. "Ford and GM have more brands than anyone, but Toyota is piling up the money," says Tutak. "Which horse are you going to bet on?" For Toyota at least, hybrids look like a winner.

With Keith Naughton in Detroit, Masato Kawaguchi


Source HERE (http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5963500/site/newsweek/)

Hybrids, in my opinion, are a fad that will be gone in 3-4 years. They are going to be popular until we get low-sulfur diesel fuel starting in 2006 and more good, low-polluting, small diesels being offered here in America. Then the public......just like I have been saying for months.......will see that diesels offer the same mileage as hybrids with a LOT less complexity and weight, and then hybrids won't be worth the space in the driveway they take up.

Europe has been slower to respond. It has already chosen diesel as its cleaner, more efficient fuel, and the diesel market is dominated by German carmakers. Indeed, one reason Toyota pursued hybrids was that it was so far behind in the diesel market. But growing sales of the new Prius could change all that.

If Americans could somehow be sucked into this hybrid fad then surely they could also accept the much better alternative already found in Europe: diesels.

Also.....never mind the fact that it is a hybrid. I wouldn't own a Prius myself simply because of the awful styling and the ridiculous dash and controls. Honda and Ford, at least, make hybrids that are more or less like normal vehicles.

September 28, 2004

Opinion : Hybrid technology is here to stay. Remember the carburetor?


The 2004 Toyota Prius is a significant advance in gas-electric hybrid technology, a vehicle that eliminates many of the compromises found in the earlier model that, along with Honda's Insight, pioneered the technology.

The new Prius is spacious and refined, as powerful as most four-cylinder compacts, and elegant in its design, features and technological sophistication.

No, it is not in any way sporty. Handling is still below where it should be. And fuel consumption, though excellent, cannot match Transport Canada's published fuel economy rating. But it is way ahead, in terms of fuel consumption and emission reduction, of any four-wheeled vehicle that uses gasoline.


There is still an element of risk in buying a Prius. Long term owners may be faced with an expensive battery replacement 10 to 15 years down the road - but how expensive is impossible to determine. Much will depend on the popularity of the new Prius - in volume there is economy of scale.

The volumes, by the way, are growing. Toyota expects to sell 47,000 Prius in the US this year and took steps to increase production by 50 percent, from 10,000 units per month to 15,000 units, to meet demand that has left many consumers waiting months for a Prius.

Still the uncertainty about replacement costs for the nickel-metal hydride battery is an often cited reason not to purchase a gas-electric hybrid vehicle.

Other reasons to stick with a single-fuel gasoline engine - gas-electric hybrid systems are complex. Reliability is unknown. Only dealers will be able to fix them should a problem occur. Repair costs will outstrip any saving at the pump.

To me it sounds a bit like deja vu. Remember carburetors? When fuel injection (FI) began to replace carburetors as the principal method of metering fuel in the early 1980s, there was plenty of resistance.

Remember the arguments? FI is too complex, too finicky and too expensive to fix. No one can repair it except a dealer with expensive diagnostic equipment. FI will drive private service facilities out of business.

Although the technology wasn't new - GM had experimented with it in the fifties under the hood of a few Corvettes and Chevy sedans - its benefits couldn't be overlooked. Fuel injection promised better fuel economy, lower emissions and more power from smaller engines. But those early FI systems were troublesome - not to mention expensive - and with plenty of cheap fuel available, power-hungry consumers couldn't see the sense in paying a premium for a small fuel injected V8 when a far more powerful big block could be had for much less.

Fuel injection wouldn't catch on as mainstream technology for more than two decades. It would take two oil crises, a tripling of oil prices, pressure from regulators to reduce emissions, and significant advances in computing technology before FI became the norm rather than an engineering oddity.

Today we can thank the advent of FI and a host of other advanced engine technologies like variable valve timing and electronic controllers for 250 horsepower V6s and in-line four cylinder engines that produce as much power as a V8 did forty years ago.

And rather than finicky, FI has also proven reliable. Can you imagine taking your car to the garage twice a year for a tune-up?

Early critics of fuel injection turned out to be just plain wrong.

Advanced hybrid technology will replace single fuel vehicles just as surely as FI relegated the carburetor to the museum of automotive technology.

While the old Prius and Honda's Insight were pioneers, appealing mainly to early adopters and environmentally conscious consumers, this new Prius (and Honda's hybrid Civic) is a car for every consumer. And like the pioneers that opened the western part of this continent two hundred years ago, it will soon be joined by a wave of hybrid vehicles entering the market over the next few years - hybrid versions of the Lexus RX330, Toyota Highlander, Ford Escape, Honda Accord and Nissan Altima are a few that we know about.

And with oil prices heading toward $60 a barrel the timing couldn't be better.

source HERE (http://www.canadiandriver.com/roadtest/hybrids.htm)

Green Living: Toyota Prius vs VW Jetta Diesel
By Jamie Kitman
Photography: George Saitas .

http://automobilemag.com/reviews/0409_prius_jetta_comparo/index.html

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It's in the air. You can detect it in the popular press and celebrity media. There's a sense these days that in the sophisticated places-London, Hollywood, Ann Arbor-you're not really making the scene if you aren't green. In Europe, they've got the highly conspicuous Smart city car and a host of other micro-machines to prance around in to show that their hearts are in the right place. But here at home, there can be no better way to alert the world to the fact that you're green like money than with the new Toyota Prius gas-electric hybrid. Prius might almost rhyme with pious, but that's OK, brother, because you're religious in your zeal to conserve fuel and cut emissions, are you not? Or perhaps Your Righteous Dudeness would prefer to go green more subtly, facing down global warming with the sonorous turbo-diesel sounds of the extraordinarily abstemious Volkswagen Jetta TDI?

Fact is, home could be Graceland, and your other car might be a Hummer, but as far as the beautiful people are concerned, nothing says you're a dear old friend of Mother Earth more conspicuously than a car that can get 40 to 50 mpg or more. Any additional benefit from its thrift accruing to your selfish cheapskate side is a bonus-as is the underlying quality of these automobiles, which is considerable but more or less on top of the major environmental-status points they will win you. (Contrast this with the embarrassing, golf-cart-like GEM electric cars that some prominent Californians have let themselves be photographed in.)

We know all this, you see, because we got quite green ourselves recently, driving the Prius and the Jetta thousands of miles over the course of four months, commuting into, out of, and all around New York City, as well as on a series of road trips spanning the Middle Atlantic region of the Eastern Seaboard. The vehicles' mileage varied-and the hoped-for 50 mpg was attained only fleetingly-but social-impact-wise, we felt we stayed right on message, particularly with the Prius.

Let's face it. The Jetta diesel will never be as clean as a hybrid, because it's a diesel and because the hybrid spends a good part of its urban-running time in zero-emissions mode, driven by a mighty-mite electric motor fed by a hefty battery pack. That accounts for its stellar 60 mpg EPA city mileage figure, which many purchasers have mistaken for the mileage they might actually get around town, which, in our case, was far lower. Compared with the Prius, the Jetta is somewhat less stingy with a gallon of fuel and emits roughly twenty times more nitrous oxide, almost three times more hydrocarbons, and twice as much carbon monoxide, even though it's wildly clean by historic diesel standards. It helps to remember that the Prius, optimized to remain electric and hence emissions-free for a good portion of the EPA city-driving cycle, tests as one of the cleanest fossil-fueled cars in history. (Priuses certified for California and four Northeast states are cleaner yet.) The jury is still out on whether the diesel will survive in the U.S. market, though we're betting that the political muscle of diesel makers and other adherents will extend its life into a distant future. The question may be what form diesels take. There is nothing to suggest that they wouldn't offer similar benefits were they to be hybridized; indeed, the stated goal of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles, the federally underwritten program to build an 80-mpg family car that cost billions and turned up nothing, was to facilitate production of just such a vehicle. The reason? Diesels use less of a more energy-dense fuel and therefore tend to be naturally low in carbon dioxide emissions-the bugaboo of the global warming debate-which is good. Emissions, especially oxides of nitrogen and particulate matter, remain a major concern, however, even if you can't see diesel soot with the naked eye as well as you used to.

A noose of sorts is already tightening around the diesel engine's neck. None of them is clean enough to comply with 2004-model-year emissions standards applicable in California and four Northeast states (Maine, Massachusetts, New York, and Vermont). Come 2007, similar standards become the law of the land for the remaining forty-five states where you can currently purchase a VW or Mercedes-Benz diesel-powered automobile. The hope is that low-sulfur diesel fuel that's mandatory beginning in 2006 and advanced emissions control technology-especially particulate traps and urea injection-might save the day. Beyond the added cost of these new emissions controls, there is some concern that cleaner diesels won't be as fuel-efficient as today's oil burners.

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Still, today's Jetta makes a fine package. Its engine, 1896 cc of iron- blocked, aluminum-headed modern diesel combustion, exhibits momentary start-up clatter but settles down with each degree of engine temperature until it reaches a pleasant simmer. Performance is blunted by a conventional, Tiptronic five-speed automatic, but its 0-to-60-mph time of 11.7 seconds wouldn't have seemed slow for any car not too long ago, and, back when, it would have counted as rocket-ship-fast for a diesel.

Once under way, the TDI rolls the Jetta and its occupants down the road in comfort and reasonable silence, its 100 horsepower made infinitely more bearable by 177 pound-feet of torque available at an easily accessed 1800 rpm. Smoke, odor, and related diesel foulness are things of the past. Cruising at 90 mph, if one goes in for such things, is an option for the present. The Americanized Jetta's handling is not the last word in crisp, but the car is planted, unlike the Prius, which gets blown around in the wind. When full panic braking is called for, the Jetta pulls up in 172 feet from 70 mph, 20 feet less than the Prius, which feels jerky and slightly odd when binders are applied, and narrow-tread tires have their work cut out for them stopping 2960-plus pounds of payload.

Although you wouldn't want to make much of it, the Jetta is the more sporting drive of this pair. And compared with most, its environmental credentials are pretty good. With both green machines running together in city traffic, we measured 34 mpg in the Jetta and increased that mileage by 9 mpg on the highway, so you're a much smaller part of the problem than you used to be, even if you're not the solution. Like the Prius, the diesel Jetta makes you feel virtuous. Personally, I'm fine with its low-key public persona, but it may matter to you that hardly anyone knows you're giving it up to save the baby seals when you drive by. A handsome but ordinary-looking and much-seen Volkswagen sedan, built in Mexico and now in its last year of production, it doesn't stand out.

Only one of our test cars looked as if it were sent last week from outer space (actually, it comes from Toyota City, near Nagoya in Japan), and only one can take epochal, brand-making advantage of the general public's dim-to-nonexistent understanding of hybrid technology. "Where do you plug it in?" is a question you'll learn to hate as a Prius driver. (Polite answer: "You don't plug it in. The 1.5-liter four-cylinder gasoline engine and regenerative braking system recharge the battery pack.") Simple and straightforward it might be for you to understand, but for the tedious many, the technological talk is a bridge too far. After repeated explanatory misfires, you want to tell them, in no uncertain terms, where to go plug it in. They don't understand. But we feel quite certain that the Prius defines the automotive new wave for Americans, nevertheless. "Is it a robot?" someone asked. "That's the robot, right?'

"Why, yes, it is," we told them. "Stand back."

As we drove one of the first new Priuses in New York City, people treated us differently, as if we were the very sunshine supermen who'd invented recycling or solar energy or something worthwhile like that. Although this sensation diminished, the Jesus halo hadn't worn off by the time we said good-bye to the car, the whole thing of its newfound emotional strength having been put in stark relief a few weeks earlier when we were also driving the equally iconic Hummer H2 around the city. The Hummer attracted more discourtesy, rudeness, nasty looks, and obscene hand gestures from New York motorists and ped-estrians than we'd ever been witness to, and we hadn't even told anybody we were getting only 9 mpg. But it was thumbs-up for the hybrid-which scored 52 mpg in our city-driving run-and big smiles in the Big Apple.

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OK, you say, so that's New York, a town of taxi-riding gaylords and pinko swells who wouldn't know a spark-plug wrench if it hit them in the head. Now, we don't suppose for a moment a single one of the displays of affection we witnessed came from someone who actually knew what he was talking about. Some of the euphoria surely reflected as well on this particular hybrid's determinedly wacky demeanor. The Prius is hyper-modern chic viewed from some angles, clown-mobile gawky from others, but a full-time fashion statement above all else.

Like its scuttling-beetle look or not, when you're driving the new Prius, the ability to generate endless good vibes outside the Starbucks is palpable. Optimal fuel efficiency is achieved with an attitude adjustment. Since the key mileage boosters-regenerative braking and engine shutdown-don't occur on the highway, stick to urban environments to rack up the most impressive mpg numbers. Caress the throttle just so, and you can maximize the number of blocks covered with pure electric propulsion. Working together, the tag team 76-horsepower gasoline engine and 67-horsepower electric motor will pull the Prius from 0 to 60 mph in 10.7 seconds, not enough to take your breath away but a full second quicker than the Jetta.

Think the hybrid is a fad? Consider that the 2004 Prius, the first of Toyota's second-generation gas-electric hybrids, is on pace to sell 47,000 units in this, its debut year, almost double what the first-generation Prius, introduced in 2000, managed in its final and bestselling year, 2003. For its part, Volkswagen hopes to sell a total of 34,000 diesels in America this year, across a diesel model range that includes the Golf, the Jetta, the New Beetle, the Passat, and the Touareg. Surely, VW could sell more, but then it would have to charge less (you pay a $1240 premium for the diesel Jetta), and that doesn't seem to be part of the master plan for VW, which has a long-standing bond with long-suffering American dieselers, dating back to the diesel Rabbits and Dashers of the 1970s and 1980s. Who can forget what fog machines they were?
The modern Toyota hybrid is an amazing technological feat. Lexus and Toyota SUVs are up next and are all but ensured commercial success. There are, to be certain, several drawbacks to the hybrid, chief among them that it uses two separate powerplants, which is duplicative and inelegant to the engineer's minimalist sensibility, not to mention expensive, complicated, and heavy. Batteries are costly to replace-though they're warranted for eight years or 100,000 miles-and pose significant, if not insurmountable, environmental issues in their manufacture and end-of-life disposal. On the bright side, with two power contributors, gasoline engines can be smaller and optimized for fuel efficiency instead of power output. Zero emissions are generated in electric mode, and propulsion is near silent. To make it all possible, the Prius must be a wonder of modern electronics, with exotic computer microprocessors harnessed in the name of significant energy savings, such as allowing momentum to be recouped continually in the form of electrical power during coasting and braking, energy that would be lost in nonhybrid vehicles. The Prius's planetary transmission and electronic controls keep its gasoline engine in the most efficient part of its operating range and permit smooth, stepless cruising and acceleration. Drivability is not an issue.

Which is why it's time to take a step back. There's a good reason for the Prius and this being its moment in time. Whether or not Toyota can build hybrids profitably, as Detroit sniffs it can't (nervously, it seems to us), the Prius is unassailable as a consumer proposition. From a clean-air perspective, it's the best thing ever, and, unlike hydrogen fuel cells, it's here right now. Although diesel engines are not without environmental merit, they're not in the same ballpark. So the scenesters of New York, London, Hollywood, and Ann Arbor have got something right. Hybrids aren't going away. Something has changed.

So far all the US diesels, Ive seen are force fed and probably very expensive. They have no weight advantage over the hybrids, and will pollute worse than ordinary cars (non-CO2) even w/low sulfar fuel.

There is also the issue once low sulfur fuels are implemented the diesels will lose performace, and w/o turbos they will be pretty unimpressive.

Backseat Driver
The Diesel Dilemma
Jerry Flint, 09.28.04, 6:00 AM ET

With gasoline in the U.S. likely to stay north of $2 per gallon, I am hearing more and more discussions about saving fuel. Such dialog always comes around to diesel motors. Practically everyone seems to like the idea, but diesels still aren't happening in this country. Yes, a few thousand German diesel cars are being imported, but that's it. Even the fuel-conscious Japanese don't sell diesels here. Instead, they are focusing on hybrids.

Diesels have both pluses and minuses.

Diesels burn fuel that's similar to the oil in a home furnace. The engines get about 30% more miles per gallon on average than gasoline engines. Diesel motors emit 15% to 20% less carbon dioxide per mile driven than gasoline motors. Many scientists believe that carbon dioxide contributes to global warming; if they are right, diesel engines are better in this respect than gasoline engines.

Half the new cars bought in Europe today carry diesels, and this percentage will probably grow as manufacturers expand production capacity. Due to higher taxes, gasoline costs around $5 a gallon in Europe. But the taxes on diesel fuel are much lower over there, so diesel is sort of a bargain.

Diesel engines have become much better than they used to be. They aren't as noisy or smelly, they are easier to start and they have lots of low-end torque so they deliver acceptable acceleration. Diesels have been used in big over-the-road trucks for decades. Many car companies such as Volkswagen, Mercedes, BMW, Peugeot, Renault and Fiat have plenty of experience in building diesels.

Those are the advantages. Now here are some drawbacks:

Diesels cost more to build. These motors need to be heavier and stronger than gasoline engines because they operate at greater compression ratios. I figure that even the smallest diesels for passenger cars cost $1,000 to $2,000 more to manufacture.

Ford Motor (nyse: F - news - people ) had a program with Navistar International (nyse: NAV - news - people ) to create a diesel for the best-selling Ford F-150 pickup. I hear that the project was killed before production began because the diesel cost an extra $4,000 to $5,000 and Ford didn't think the market would tolerate this expense. The head of a German luxury car builder told me that his company knocks $1,000 to $2,000 off the price of their car diesels sold in Germany. This means that they charge a smaller than normal premium for the diesel.

Despite the recent refinements, diesel motors are still are noisier than gasoline engines and the smell hasn't been completely eliminated. That's my opinion.

The newest and best diesels in Europe run on clean diesel fuel from which most of the sulfur has been removed. The American oil companies have resisted this change, but are now under a government mandate to remove sulfur starting in 2006. So we've got to wait until then to be able to run the cleanest diesels here. Diesel fuel sold in the U.S. needs other improvements to be as good as the fuel sold in Europe. The shortage of refining capacity in the U.S. only adds to this problem.

While diesels come out slightly ahead on some gaseous emissions, they aren't as clean when it comes to oxides of nitrogen and particulate emissions. Our 2007 standards are tougher than the European regulations. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency says that long-term exposure to diesel fumes is likely to pose a lung cancer hazard, and that the particulate emissions from diesels are associated with increased risk of heart and respiratory problems. In fact, California, New York and a few other states bar even the latest diesel cars from VW and Mercedes.

The top engine executives at General Motors (nyse: GM - news - people ) and Ford say they are not sure if they will be able to meet the future tailpipe standards for diesels. It is worth pointing out that automakers must not only meet pollution regulations when a car comes out of the factory, they must also warranty pollution-control equipment for 100,000 miles. U.S. car companies haven't completely ruled out diesels, but it's tough to authorize a $1 billion investment if you aren't absolutely sure you can meet the standards.

I think the biggest reason why diesels haven't caught on here is that old Detroit really doesn't know much about diesels. Most of the U.S. auto executives I've met don't like diesels and they have discouraged their European subsidiaries from pushing diesels over there, even as the diesel boom started. Thus Ford and GM fell behind everybody else in Europe. Now Ford is getting help from Peugeot, and GM from Fiat and Isuzu.

Right now Americans can buy a diesel in Volkswagen's New Beetle, Golf, Jetta, Passat and even in the Touareg sport utility vehicle. Mercedes is putting some into the E Class car. And Chrysler, which, like Mercedes, is part of DaimlerChrysler (nyse: DCX - news - people ), will import diesels next year for 5,000 Jeep Liberty SUVs. But add them all together and I figure fewer than 50,000 diesels will be sold here in 2004 against 200,000 hybrid vehicles.

So what's going to happen? I think that the domestics will put diesels into their standard-size pickups (diesels are already offered in the super-big pickups). We'll also see diesels in the biggest, thirstiest SUVs. Suppliers--International, Isuzu and Cummins (nyse: CMI - news - people )--make the diesel engines for Detroit. In 2006, when the diesel fuel is cleaner, I think that some diesels will find their way into some U.S. light trucks.

But I don't think Detroit will ever participate in a meaningful way in the U.S. passenger car diesel market.