Date posted: 01-19-2007

ANN ARBOR, Mich. — A new survey of automakers, suppliers and industry pundits predicts that by 2020, gas is headed for $5 per gallon, fuel economy requirements will rise about 40 percent and alt-fuel vehicles will account for more than half of new-vehicle sales.

Not surprisingly, the survey by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute warns that automakers may not be moving fast enough to prepare for massive changes in the industry.

Among the prognostications by the auto experts:

* Clean diesel and hybrid vehicles will be the leading alternatives. Cars powered by gas engines will ignite through compression rather than a spark. Engines powered by alt-fuels will make up 42 percent of vehicles sold in North America in 2015 and 55 percent by 2020. These vehicles now comprise less than 2 percent of all sales.


* Truck CAFE standards will rise to 27 mpg in 2015 and 31 mpg in 2020. They are now pegged at 21.6 mpg.


* Car standards will increase to 33 mpg in 2015 and 38 mpg in 2020. They are now pegged at 27.5 mpg.


* Gas prices will spike to $4 per gallon by 2015 and $5 per gallon by 2020.


What this means to you: Gas may be on its way into the stratosphere, but you're also more likely to buy a fuel-efficient alt-fuel vehicle in the future.

Source: http://www.edmunds.com/insideline/do...ticleId=119292

 

Perhaps..............

Right now, name-brand regular in my neighborhood is $2.19.............and dropping.
So much for the doomsdayers and oil-company bashers that predicted a massive price rise after the election last November.

Does this thread really belong in CAR CHAT? Usually, gas-price threads are posted in CLUBHOUSE.

 

Good question. Cars run on gas, so I'd thought I'd put it here. If it shouldn't be here, I'll move it.

 

Umm intesting little read there. I could see my self with a hybrid car in the year 2015...............with my 67 Camaro SS or my 09 Camaro sitting in the garage drinking up all the gas

 

I plan to keep my RX300 for a long time, however I would think in the future about buying an IS-hybrid should prices tick up.

 

This sounds low to me....I was thinking about $7

 

psh thats probably inflation alone

 

That's a hard thing to predict but probably reasonable.

So to fill an 18 gallon tank will set us back $90.

Many other parts of the globe have been spending more than this for a while now. We actually have it pretty good even at $3 a gallon.

 

^^^ +1 - maybe more than $7.

In 13 yrs China could be at 2billion people.

Oh and there will be 5 Mexicans left in Mexico.

Everyone in Washington and Oregon states will have moved to Canada.

And Castro will have been stuffed by a taxidermist and still in power.

 

$5 by 2020 seems reasonable and kind of low. Heck, just last year we were already paying near $4.00 a gallon and in certain ares in my state over $4.00 a gallon. I figure one more tragedy like Katrina or 911 and we could see $5 a gallon before 2010 at least in my state.

 

market is too volatile to make these predictions

 

They said gas in my area would hit 4.50 a gallon. It was at an all season low that summer. I'm not buying it.

 

Do you really think gas will remain at about the same price levels as today?

There is only an estimated 30 years of oil left. 2020 brings us almost half way to that point. The less and less there is, the more and more it will cost.
Simple economics.

I dread the day if we are still dependent on oil and it is dwindling to it's last drops. It will be quite a mssed up world when that happens. People will be killing each other for it.

 

I wont buy into it. If it gets up to 100 bucks a barrel, there will be renewed interest in oil shale, which isnt entirely feasible with current low prices and smaller scale "mod in situ" extraction. When they get that machine running again and find the cost/extract equilibrium, the only cost increases will be because of taxes and inflation.

Just more FUD to get people to switch over to alt-fuels. Never to been to clear why... current batteries aren't all that efficient an hydrogen isn't long term viable.

If you believe in the whole "peak oil" is soon, care to explain the 3 million million (yes, a million squared) tons of shale sitting under North America (a huuuuge chunk is under US soil actually)? That's just the recoverable amounts. I am far from worried about oil.

 

Sources? Every decade there's another prediction of when oil's going to run out and each time it has been completely wrong.

Oil under the gulf of Mexico alone could be gigantic.