http://www2.nysun.com/article/75363

"Get ready for another economic shock of major proportions — a virtual doubling of prices at the gas pump to as much as $10 a gallon.

That's the message from a couple of analytical energy industry trackers, both of whom, based on the surging oil prices, see considerably more pain at the pump than most drivers realize.

Gasoline nationally is in an accelerated upswing, having jumped to $3.58 a gallon from $3.50 in just the past week. In some parts of the country, including New York City and the West Coast, gas is already sporting a price tag above $4 a gallon. There was a pray-in at a Chevron station in San Francisco on Friday led by a minister asking God for cheaper gas, and an Arco gas station in San Mateo, Calif., has already raised its price to a sky-high $4.62.

In Manhattan, at a Mobil gas station at York Avenue and East 61st Street, premium gas is now $4.03 a gallon. Two days ago, it was $3.96. Why such a high price? "Blame the people at STOPEC (he meant OPEC) and the oil companies," an attendant there told me.

These increases are taking place before the all-important summer driving season, signaling even higher prices ahead.

That's also the outlook of the Automobile Association of America. "As long as the price of crude oil stays above $100 a barrel, drivers will be forced to pay more and more at the gas pump," a AAA spokesman, Troy Green, said.

Oil recently hit an all-time high of nearly $120 a barrel, more than double its early 2007 price of about $50 a barrel. It closed Friday at $118.52.

The forecasts calling for a jump to between $7 and $10 a gallon are based on the view that the price of crude is on its way to $200 in two to three years.

Translating this price into dollars and cents at the gas pump, one of our forecasters, the chairman of Houston-based Dune Energy, Alan Gaines, sees gas rising to $7-$8 a gallon. The other, a commodities tracker at Weiss Research in Jupiter, Fla., Sean Brodrick, projects a range of $8 to $10 a gallon.

While $7-$10 a gallon would be ground-breaking in America, these prices would not be trendsetting internationally. For example, European drivers are already shelling out $9 a gallon (which includes a $2-a-gallon tax).

Canadians are also being hit with rising gas prices. They are paying the American-dollar equivalent of $4.92 a gallon, and they're being told to brace themselves for prices above $5.65 a gallon this summer.

Early last year, with a barrel of oil trading in the low $50s and gasoline nationally selling in a range of $2.30 to $2.50 a gallon, Mr. Gaines — in an impressive display of crystal ball gazing — accurately predicted oil was $100-bound and that gasoline would follow suit by reaching $4 a gallon.

His latest prediction of $200 oil is open to question, since it would undoubtedly create considerable global economic distress. Further, just about every energy expert I talk to cautions me to expect a sizable pullback in oil prices, maybe to between $50 and $70 a barrel, especially if there's a global economic slowdown.

While Mr. Gaines thinks there could be a temporary decline in the oil price, he's convinced an overall uptrend is unstoppable. In fact, he thinks his $200 forecast could be conservative, and that perhaps $250 could be reached. His reasoning: a combination of shrinking supply and increasing demand, especially from China, India, and America.

Mr. Brodrick's $200 oil forecast is largely predicated on a combination of pretty flat supply and rip-roaring demand. Other key catalysts include surging demand in China and India, where auto sales are booming, and major supply disruptions in Nigeria and also in Mexico, our second-largest source of oil imports, where oil production has fallen off a cliff.

More factors include the ever-present danger of additional supply disruptions from volatile countries in the Middle East that are not our allies, and the unwillingness of SUV-loving Americans to trim their unquenchable thirst for foreign oil. Likewise, for the first time, emerging markets this year will use more oil than America.

To Mr. Brodrick, it all adds up to an ongoing energy bull market. His favorite plays are the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ; United States Natural Gas Fund LP; Apache Corp.; Occidental Petroleum; Anadarko Petroleum, and Schlumberger."

I was about to post that earlier. IMO if gas hit betwen $6-$8 a gallon something bad will happen.
The question I have is if Canada has more oil reserves than any country but Saudia Arabia why come is not cheap like it is in the MiddleEast?

$10 would be murder for alot of people. I personally would find it outrageous to be paying over $200 a tank since Ive been filling my tank up ever 3-4 days.

Because the large part of that Canadian reserve is in the form of tar sands. Not the drill a hole in the ground and svck it out variety of middle east. It requires more money/time/equipment/capital spending/etc to bring that tar sands oil to the market.

I was about to post that earlier. IMO if gas hit betwen $6-$8 a gallon something bad will happen.
The question I have is if Canada has more oil reserves than any country but Saudia Arabia why come is not cheap like it is in the MiddleEast?

Then our economy would go flat...
and we will run out of cheap oil and resort to lower grade petroleum sources until those run out.....
Then we are all screwed:(

Ok, time to kill the polar bears and caribou. Alaska, here we come.

Hmmm an oil exec and and a commodity trader/analyst pumping oil/gas prices. What a surprise. Certainly anything's possible. Dumbass Bush could bomb Iran tomorrow and crude might pop to $200. Or not. Any thing short of that sort of thing, crude and gasoline will stay up or go up some thru summer driving season but it's not gonna hit $200 anytime soon. And if dollar's stops tanking, crude can easily go back down to $50-60.

The WORLD economy would collapse if it does.

Lots of people will fail to go to work, make less money, default on credit cards and loans, destroy their credit, destroy the housing market, destroy businesses, and put entire governments into bankruptcy.

May sound dramatic, but it's quite a possibility...

The WORLD economy would collapse if it does.

Lots of people will fail to go to work, make less money, default on credit cards and loans, destroy their credit, destroy the housing market, destroy businesses, and put entire governments into bankruptcy.

May sound dramatic, but it's quite a possibility...

You're right. There would be a serious depression. If it reaches $5/gallon, there will be a major recession. This is no joke, people. If the working class can't get gas to get to work, afford to go out, go to restaurants, go see movies, the economy will collapse.

Maybe then the government will step in and do something about this crap. Maybe not.

The world is not going to end. We will just use less gas and find some alternative to cope with the price hike.

time to start walking to work :sad:

ugh all i wish is for anything to be cheaper alt gas or reg gas!

The world is not going to end. We will just use less gas and find some alternative to cope with the price hike.
Not in the U.S, where transportation is key to our survival.

And not just for commuters in metropolitan areas.

Farmers and truckers will have to quadruple the costs of shipped items. Those big trucks do not sip gas; they guzzle it between trips from the Midwest to California, New York, and Florida.

Are you willing to pay for $3 tomatoes? $5 corn? $20 for a 5 lb sack of potatoes? Can you imagine going to McDonald's and ordering a $10 salad? :eek2:

i was talking to my boss and he analyzed it saying he expects oil to go up to 200 bucks a barrel before it levels off.

personally i think it's going to be hard to hit 10 bucks a gallon, but i think 7 bucks a gallon is possible, maybe as soon as mid of next year.

life will still go on even with that price. things will just be very slow and economy will be bad. but i am not sure if it will go from recession to depression yet

Time to bring my bicycle out from storage. I hope my boss will understand if I'm late because of my 4 hr commute. :sad:

Relating this to the car industry, you don't just make a car in 6 months. Those with fuel efficient offerings will immediately do well. Those that have ignored the signed and continued to ignore the signs will suffer.

Farmers and truckers will have to quadruple the costs of shipped items. Those big trucks do not sip gas; they guzzle it between trips from the Midwest to California, New York, and Florida.



Locomotive can move inventories around the country.

Commuter can use public transportations.

We are just wasting too much gas at the current rate. I see only one drive in a huge SUV all the time. That's just non sense.

now everyone in the world will have to drive a prius.

I got dibs on black.

If gas prices go above 5-6 dollars im am defiantly trading in my car, hands down. Hope they invent something.

As we all know fuel prices have a dramatic impact on every aspect of our everyday lives from the airlines to food prices to shipping costs, etc..

The near term outlook is bleak as the world is already in the midst of vast food shortage and with fuel prices escalating this will only increase demand for biofuel which in turn will even further diminish the food supply as farmers find corn for biofuel more profitable than food.

I read that it takes 528 POUNDS of corn to fill up one Chevy Suburban. :eek2: That could feed an entire family for some time.

Not sure about $10.00 but $7.00 is a certainty in a few months and many Americans are just going to use their tax rebate to subsidize their fuel needs. The nations mass transit system is simply not a viable alternative for many in the suburbs to rely on so we must rely on our cars. Starting to miss NY,NY right about now. :p

That Prius sure is also looking good.

Hate to be a pessimist, but I fear that things are going to get very tough in the States for the next few years; the market will crash severely as confidence erodes, interest rate drops have done nothing, the retail sector is already in dire straights, bankruptcies are at an all time high, unemployment is on a huge upswing, continued snow balling effect of housing, fuel prices, food shortages, continued dramatic increase in crime, etc... It ain't gonna be pretty.

Of course then there are those that say the economy is just fine and going through an adjustment. Put off those mods and start saving your cash.

wow, time to bust out the alternative energy vehicles and DRILL IN UNITED STATES!

Im seriously considering working to get a motorcycle license this summer just to be prepared.

If gas hits $5 or more, here is my personal solution

http://www.blalockcycle.com/07r6_red_2_a7843cd5.jpg

Im sure the road by then should be clear enough to make riding a little safer.

Personally, I don't care much for bikes but it is sure alot better than driving a Yaris, Prius, or taking a bus

Look at the bright side... less traffic :D

If it goes up to $10 in the rest of the world it wil be $20.
But few people would be very happy if it hits that high, heck even today they have huge record profits.

Pearlpower, I agree with you. The rise in gas prices at this alarming rate with little signs of leveling off is such a shock to me, and probably to most of the American people. It's raising the price of EVERYTHING! Currently, there seems to be no increase in the American people's salaries (at least not at the rate of the fuel increase), yet the price of essential neccesities are increasing drastically. That, to me, spells doom.

Here are some personal calculations when/if it levels off at $8.00 a gallon for a 25 mpg vehicle. Keep in mind that this JUST filling up a vehicle (direct costs). NOT how it affects us when a farmer is filling up his tractor. When a truck driver fills up his big-rig. When an airline fills up their airplane. When a cop is filling up his patrol car:

Let's say a person drives 60 miles a day (work roundtrip, grocery store, etc.). Very common distance for me. I live in the Midwest.

60 miles x 7 days = 420 miles/week.

The car averages 25 mpg.

420miles/week divided by 25 miles/gallon = car uses 16.8 gallons of gas/week.

About a tank of gas in my GS400. Except I don't get 25 mpg!!!

14 gallons of gas/week x $8.00/gallon = $134.40 for gas per week. So it would cost you that much to fill up one tank!

$134.40 x 4 weeks = $537.60 a month for gas

So over $500 a month. And that is for a car that gets 25 miles per gallon commuting only 60 miles a day. That's a big bite out of most American salaries just for the fill-up of one small(er) daily commuter (not their best-selling Ford trucks and SUVs). What if they have 2-3 cars in their household?

My personal solution will be carpooling with as many people as possible in a Civic then splitting the fuel costs. I'll still be broke!!!

On the up side : new cars will hold their values a lot better since there will be a lot less made and less people trading it every couple years. But the current cars you own won't do so well tho...

The high gas prices will also force auto makers to be more efficient. Looking at the truck/semi trucks on the road today they are not very aerodynamic nor are they very well designed.

There will clearly be mass hysteria and panic if anything close to this happens. Remember, it was not very long ago that gas was under $2/gal (heck, I remember paying under $1 in NJ in '98 or '99). The price has ALREADY doubled in a relatively short time frame.

I just saw a story yesterday about a car break-in that included gas siphoning. Maybe it is something that has always happened on occasion but just gets press now because of gas prices, or maybe there's more to come of this. Wasn't it the late '70s or early '80s when car makers started offering locking gas caps??

I'm a cyclist and already bike fairly often. I'm a poor college student as is. If gas prices reach $6+ I will have to give up racing entirely because I wouldn't be able to afford to drive to bike races. I have already considered a motor cycle as a daily... Something needs to change. As things are heading right now we're in a downward spiral with no real end in sight.

The main problem here is a very difficult world market for oil, and some things beyond our control. You can thank the growing demand for oil in Asia....particularly China with its exploding economy......for pushing up world demand. You can also thank international oil speculators who bid the price of crude up for unjustifiable means....sometimes it borders on panic. You can also thank the fact that the environmantalist crowd, here in the U.S. is preventing new drilling and refinery construction. We also have delayed somewhat in our conversion from gasoline and diesel fuel to other non-petroleum fuels for cars and trucks. We can't do anything about the Asian economies, but we CAN control the other factors...and we better get moving, especially on new drilling and refineries. The American public is not going to put up with $10 a gallon....when that happens, the anti-drilling and anti-refinery politicians will be swept clean out of office. It will be a political blowout.

If you think gasoline is going to $8 or really anything beyond $5 at the pump, there are alot of ways to cap/hedge.

Most straight up method would be buying the gasoline futures at NYMEX if you can clear NYMEX margin requirement - I think slightly under $10k.

If that's too much money to be tied up, you can do any of the following or dozen other ways I don't have to time to type up;

1) Buy USO or buy call option on USO - it's crude not gasoline and USO in it of itself doesn't track crude price "exactly" so it's not directly correlated but pretty close. If gasoline is $8 at the pump - double what it is now - you can bet your farm USO will have doubled more or less.
2) Short DUG or buy put options on DUG - DUG is oil and gas double short so it basically moves in opposite direction of oil/gas so if oil/gas doubles from here on out DUG will crash.
3) Buy refiners like VLO or TSO or buy call options on those - Again similar to USO but not as attractive of an play as they might have operational issues that can affect the stock - a hurricane destroys one of its refinery etc - but that works both ways also. It doesn't also track exactly to gasoline price at the pump. The stock prices more or less tracks the crack spread - price difference between crude and the refined products.

Pearlpower, I agree with you. The rise in gas prices at this alarming rate with little signs of leveling off is such a shock to me, and probably to most of the American people. It's raising the price of EVERYTHING! Currently, there seems to be no increase in the American people's salaries (at least not at the rate of the fuel increase), yet the price of essential neccesities are increasing drastically. That, to me, spells doom.

Here are some personal calculations when/if it levels off at $8.00 a gallon for a 25 mpg vehicle. Keep in mind that this JUST filling up a vehicle (direct costs). NOT how it affects us when a farmer is filling up his tractor. When a truck driver fills up his big-rig. When an airline fills up their airplane. When a cop is filling up his patrol car:

Let's say a person drives 60 miles a day (work roundtrip, grocery store, etc.). Very common distance for me. I live in the Midwest.

60 miles x 7 days = 420 miles/week.

The car averages 25 mpg.

420miles/week divided by 25 miles/gallon = car uses 16.8 gallons of gas/week.

About a tank of gas in my GS400. Except I don't get 25 mpg!!!

14 gallons of gas/week x $8.00/gallon = $134.40 for gas per week. So it would cost you that much to fill up one tank!

$134.40 x 4 weeks = $537.60 a month for gas

So over $500 a month. And that is for a car that gets 25 miles per gallon commuting only 60 miles a day. That's a big bite out of most American salaries just for the fill-up of one small(er) daily commuter (not their best-selling Ford trucks and SUVs). What if they have 2-3 cars in their household?

My personal solution will be carpooling with as many people as possible in a Civic then splitting the fuel costs. I'll still be broke!!!

If you think gasoline is going to $8 or really anything beyond $5 at the pump, there are alot of ways to cap/hedge.



I don't think we'll actually see $10 a gallon here in America, or even $8 like you theorize...I only said what I thought would happen IF it did.

Americans have been reluctant to cut back on the driving even with the current high prices, but sooner or later there will be no choice. You can't keep robbing from Peter to Paul....cutting back on other things to keep the tank full....forever. I'm also concerned that there will be an increase in gas-stealing and siphoning, especially in many domestic-nameplate vehicles that don't have locking gas caps.

I agree that gasoline will not be $10 at the pump anytime soon definitely not this year short of Bush bombing Iran but if people think it's going to see that kind of price, I'm saying there are ways to hedge/cap your fuel expense.

I don't think we'll actually see $10 a gallon here in America, or even $8 like you theorize...I only said what I thought would happen IF it did.

Americans have been reluctant to cut back on the driving even with the current high prices, but sooner or later there will be no choice. You can't keep robbing from Peter to Paul....cutting back on other things to keep the tank full....forever. I'm also concerned that there will be an increase in gas-stealing and siphoning, especially in many domestic-nameplate vehicles that don't have locking gas caps.

http://www2.nysun.com/article/75363


While $7-$10 a gallon would be ground-breaking in America, these prices would not be trendsetting internationally. For example, European drivers are already shelling out $9 a gallon (which includes a $2-a-gallon tax).



Actually, this is not correct and makes me doubt much of the rest of the article.
Yes, in Europe we pay $9 a gallon, however, 70-75% of this is tax and sales tax (yes, they charge sales tax on fuel tax - go figure). So of that $9 gallon, $6.75 is tax and the fuel is $2.25 a gallon i.e we pay pretty much the same as in the US once the tax component is taken out. The price of oil could go from $100 a barrel to $200 a barrel and double the cost of fuel but I can't see that resulting in much more than a hike to $5, possibly $6 a gallon. That's a significant increase but if hybrid technology improves only slightly and cars start averaging 40mpg consistently, some of the sting will be taken out.

Just as a footnote, all cars here have locking fuel caps because fuel thefts are not uncommon, whether it be petty crims out with a jerry can and a length of tube, or organised gangs siphoning off truckers' fuel tanks as they sleep. Filling stations use CCTV to log car numberplates as drive offs without paying are a problem when a tank of petrol can cost $120.

these damn oil brokers and speculator are going to ruin the world economy, gas prices can only increase so much before you plunge the world into a recession because it starts becoming too expensive to do simple business, much like how housing prices got out of control in some parts of the US. Look what happened there

Im seriously considering working to get a motorcycle license this summer just to be prepared.

If gas hits $5 or more, here is my personal solution

http://www.blalockcycle.com/07r6_red_2_a7843cd5.jpg

Im sure the road by then should be clear enough to make riding a little safer.

Personally, I don't care much for bikes but it is sure alot better than driving a Yaris, Prius, or taking a bus

I with you. I might just buy a bike.

The main problem here is a very difficult world market for oil, and some things beyond our control. You can thank the growing demand for oil in Asia....particularly China with its exploding economy......for pushing up world demand. You can also thank international oil speculators who bid the price of crude up for unjustifiable means....sometimes it borders on panic. You can also thank the fact that the environmantalist crowd, here in the U.S. is preventing new drilling and refinery construction. We also have delayed somewhat in our conversion from gasoline and diesel fuel to other non-petroleum fuels for cars and trucks. We can't do anything about the Asian economies, but we CAN control the other factors...and we better get moving, especially on new drilling and refineries. The American public is not going to put up with $10 a gallon....when that happens, the anti-drilling and anti-refinery politicians will be swept clean out of office. It will be a political blowout.

the 'problem' is that the price of oil isnt truly set by the market. sure, the futures market can reprice oil temporarily but over any significant length of time that essentially will not hold. the suppliers are limited to the point where its essentially a monopoly. against that, the world needs oil, and when you look at it- $100/bl on crude is still cheap.

Time for cellulosic ethanol, plug-in hybrids, and/or pure electric cars to take over...!

$392 a month to fill the civic...

$98 a tank!!! im walkin.

as far as public trans goes, what about upstate NY, we dont even have any kind of buses here.

whatever, everybody needs to calm the **** down. gas will be cheap again. Our economy can't support much higher prices. its only gone up 60 cents and people are talking about 5-10 dollars a gallon? Are you kidding?? Speculators are just putting those numbers out there, so you won't be so surprised when they inflate prices. Gas got down to $1.96 in december 06. just drive less, drive easier, and ride out the storm.

whatever, everybody needs to calm the **** down. gas will be cheap again. Our economy can't support much higher prices. its only gone up 60 cents and people are talking about 5-10 dollars a gallon? Are you kidding?? Speculators are just putting those numbers out there, so you won't be so surprised when they inflate prices. Gas got down to $1.96 in december 06. just drive less, drive easier, and ride out the storm.

haha gas is not going to decline anytime soon... even the economy experts... say it will reach $5 by summer...

i guess gas is going to be one of those "back in the day" stories. I remember filling up my honda civic with 15 bucks. I remember when gas was 2.50 and i was a broke college kid. I wish prices were still 2.50. Its getting closer and closer to 4 bucks. :sad:

i guess gas is going to be one of those "back in the day" stories. I remember filling up my honda civic with 15 bucks. I remember when gas was 2.50 and i was a broke college kid. I wish prices were still 2.50. Its getting closer and closer to 4 bucks. :sad:

Gas was $2.50 (regular) as close as last november....

last November regular was around 3.10 here.

Have to keep in mind that gas prices do not react quickly to changing market conditions such as supply, demand, etc. It takes a while before increases in crude oil equate to higher fuel prices. That stated, gas will no doubt go up at least .60 in a couple of months as supply is still up while reserves are shrinking for all of the major suppliers. Where will it peak is the unknown but do not expect any $3.00 gas prices any time soon.

The near term outlook is bleak as the world is already in the midst of vast food shortage

Honestly hadn't heard the world is in a 'vast food shortage' - could you cite references? :uh:

Not sure about $10.00 but $7.00 is a certainty in a few months

Basis of that prediction? :D

That Prius sure is also looking good.

Nah it's still ugly - get your eyes checked. :D

Hate to be a pessimist,

I think you rather like it! :p

the retail sector is already in dire straights,

It is? Maybe cars are struggling some, but sales at places like Amazon, Apple, Best Buy, etc., are still doing great. I realize that's mostly electronics though.

Stuff like clothing retailers are hurting because the world is awash in over supply pressuring margins to nothing.

continued dramatic increase in crime, etc.

There is? Crime in NYC is lowest in decades.

Of course then there are those that say the economy is just fine and going through an adjustment.

Put me down as one of those. Things are MASSIVELY better than say, during the Carter administration.

My first mortgage in 1985 was 12.75%. My first car loan in 1983 was 13.5%. Unemployment and inflation in the 70's was much higher.

I'm not saying there's no bad things - but a WHOLE BUNCH of it is based on 3 things:
1) MASSIVE overtaxing and overspending by govt at all levels causing diminished incentives and personal spending power,
2) we're in the hangover after a drunken orgy of irrational housing investing and unqualified buyers CAUSED by the govt's loosening of lending standards
3) the stranglehold of regulation and environmentalist pressure that has crippled our energy industry so we must rely instead on corrupt tyrants.

And we're going to look to the govt for solutions? They're the PROBLEM.

Wow, you went ahead and picked apart every little thing you could; surely you are watching the news. The riots, the crime, and not just in one city, the economy and not just in your neighborhood. Gas is guaranteed to climb to $5.00 very shortly (months?) says practically every economist minus Fox news. It may dip a bit as it always has but will climb further once consumers are used to the price. Food? Did you miss all of the rioting? Have you noticed the prices of groceries? Retail sector? Come on, perhaps the negative comp sales numbers were missed and not just a couple here and there. Sorry, but the world is facing a few problems and all is not rosy. This is not the 70's anymore. Of course many things eventually will get better-just not at this moment. Nothing wrong with being realistic about the problems we face as I would rather take a few steps now to be prepared vs following the herd if and when the message is very clear at a later time. ;)

There were many economists (plus a few on this board) as recently as early last year that said future housing issues were overblown and that the housing market would not be impacted. We know better now.

The United Nations Secretary-General, Ban Ki-Moon, says the world must act quickly to prevent food shortages - otherwise there'll be unrest on an unprecedented scale.

Leaders of the world's food agencies and the Food and Agriculture Organisation have met in Switzerland to set up a special food taskforce.

The UN wants extra money, on top of the recently pledge $755 million, to buy food for the needy.

Spokesman Alex Cherniglia says only dramatic action can make a difference.

"We need to look to the future and farming methods, and providing farmers with low cost feeds and fertiliser," he said.

"We also need to be looking at the issue of export tariffs, which create bottlenecks in the food system.

"There are many many issues to look at."

With thousands of people rioting in a dozen countries, including Bangladesh and Egypt, the UN secretary-general's spokesman Alex Cerniglia says only dramatic action can make a difference.

"The United Nations has that ability to bring all countries on board and provide that sort of world wide focus that would be difficult to get any other way," Mr Cerniglia said.

THE world is only ten weeks away from running out of wheat supplies after stocks fell to their lowest levels for 50 years.

The crisis has pushed prices to an all-time high and could lead to further hikes in the price of bread, beer, biscuits and other basic foods.

It could also exacerbate serious food shortages in developing countries especially in Africa.

The crisis comes after two successive years of disastrous wheat harvests, which saw production fall from 624m to 600m tonnes, according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).

Experts blame climate change as heatwaves caused a slump in harvests last year in eastern Europe, Canada, Morocco and Australia, all big wheat producers.

Booming populations and a switch to a meat-rich diet in the developing world also mean that about 110m tons of the world’s annual wheat crop is being diverted to feed livestock.

Crude oil prices are up 77 percent from a year ago, with crude oil for May delivery settling yesterday at $108.50 a bar rel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. I believe it has hit $118 since then with a strike overseas and plant problems.

OMAHA, Neb. — Billionaire Warren Buffett said Monday that the U.S. economy is essentially in a recession even if it hasn't met the technical definition of one yet.

Buffett said in an interview with cable network CNBC the reports he gets from the retail businesses his holding company owns show a significant slowdown in purchases.

(CEP News) - U.S. unemployment levels rose in 36 states and Washington, D.C. in March, while 5 states reported improving employment conditions and 2 registered no change, according data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Crude Oil Price by OIL-PRICE.NET ©

03:16 - $ 115.57

52 Wk Range
115.36 - 115.78

1 Year Forecast
$150.24 / Barrel

the 'problem' is that the price of oil isnt truly set by the market. sure, the futures market can reprice oil temporarily but over any significant length of time that essentially will not hold. the suppliers are limited to the point where its essentially a monopoly. against that, the world needs oil, and when you look at it- $100/bl on crude is still cheap.

If gas prices are 2x what they were less than 5 years ago, are we using twice as much gas? Sales of SUVs may have jumped, cars may have much more hp than they used to, but that's an enormous price jump. I can't believe its all supply/demand. If gas use doubled in 5 years, how would production keep up without shortages?

i'im about to trade my jeep for a dodge cummins turbo diesel. it will tow better than my jeep and i can run vegetable oil as fuel. no damn prius or other tiny junk for me, i'll be commuting in a 3/4 ton truck with almost free fuel that gets 20mpg. screw the hybrids and all that crap, it's just a way to keep taking our money. wvo conversion's are the way to go. no more dependence on foreign oil for me except when i want ot drive on weekends.

i'im about to trade my jeep for a dodge cummins turbo diesel. it will tow better than my jeep and i can run vegetable oil as fuel. no damn prius or other tiny junk for me, i'll be commuting in a 3/4 ton truck with almost free fuel that gets 20mpg. screw the hybrids and all that crap, it's just a way to keep taking our money. wvo conversion's are the way to go. no more dependence on foreign oil for me except when i want ot drive on weekends.

Yep, this is what i'm thinking too. diesel truck = my friend. :thumbup:

I have a few friends who own small restaurants and enough spare time to make the fuel but it seems like a pretty serious investment to buy all the materials needed to make the fuel and i'd hate to pay $4 a gallon for diesel if I can't refill at my house. :(

Wow, you went ahead and picked apart every little thing you could; surely you are watching the news.

The news is negative even when things are great. To channels like NBC the sky is always falling.

The riots, the crime, and not just in one city, the economy and not just in your neighborhood.

I don't know what riots you're talking about. As for crime - I don't know what stats you're looking at, but violent crime for example has declined dramatically in the past 15 years.
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/cv2.htm

If you're just judging by news stories, that's meaningless. The 24x7 media must have stories to fill the time and there's plenty of police blotters to find gruesome stores making people think everything has gotten so much worse (when it hasn't). And the police are getting BETTER at their jobs. Studies have shown that so much crime went unreported or not handled in the past compared to today. Part of this progress is increased empowerment of women, a wonderful thing.

Gas is guaranteed to climb to $5.00 very shortly (months?) says practically every economist minus Fox news.

OK, but that's not the $7 you said is a 'certainty in a few months'. I grant you it's possible or even likely at some point but I highly doubt it in '08, especially since it's an election year. ;)

Food? Did you miss all of the rioting?

I guess so! I think I saw something about riots for tortilla prices in Mexico... big deal. And this whole panic on rice is stupid, there is NO shortage. Yes I shop for food, and yes, I know prices have gone up quite a bit this year. The media will continue to scare the crap out of people, which will cause hoarding, which will make prices rise, which will...

Sorry, but the world is facing a few problems and all is not rosy.

The world has always faced problems and all has NEVER been rosy so this is news? It's news because the newsmakers make it news.

As I said before, we have an alignment of a burst housing bubble (to quote Greenspan, irrational exuberance!), increased global oil demand with no credible U.S. energy policy, and massive govt overspending and taxing - ALL CAUSED BY THE U.S. GOVERNMENT. And guys like Obama and Clinton want to make it WORSE by MORE regulation and MORE overspending and taxation. "We're the govt and we're here to help..." :rolleyes:

These are causing real hardships for many, I realize. People putting off buying new rims for their Lexus though does not qualify. :p

Of course many things eventually will get better-just not at this moment. Nothing wrong with being realistic about the problems we face as I would rather take a few steps now to be prepared vs following the herd if and when the message is very clear at a later time. ;)

I agree! Can we find examples of people REALLY HURTING right now? Sure! But we could also do so at any time during the so-called boom times of the 'dot com' Clinton years. Remember welfare reform and all the bleeding hearts saying how awful it would be? Best thing that happened under Clinton. Working beats complaining...

There were many economists (plus a few on this board) as recently as early last year that said future housing issues were overblown and that the housing market would not be impacted. We know better now.

We do? I work with builders and the 2 big problems are over supply in SOME PARTS of the country due to massive speculation in the past few years (building homes no real customers asked to have built) and now a credit squeeze due to mortgage rules being tighter now. This doesn't mean people don't want houses, it just means builders will hurt until the inventory goes down and maybe the lenders relax a BIT (not to the depraved levels a year or two ago). In California there's additional problems of unrealistic home prices combined with heavy taxation but since the taxation isn't likely to change that just means home sellers are going to get shafted selling.

Oh and Lee I forgot to comment on some of those quotes you added...

The UN comments about riots and food shortages, well I guess we can thank Al Gore and his pals for that trying to stop growth, encouraging using food for energy and other irrational screeds.

About wheat shortages... your quote says this was due to bad harvests but it says production fell from 624 to 600 - gee that's a 3.8% drop - hardly a catastrophe??? Again, newsmakers saying the sky is falling.

But ah, the real reason:

Booming populations and a switch to a meat-rich diet in the developing world also mean that about 110m tons of the world’s annual wheat crop is being diverted to feed livestock.

Al Gore, being the bloated carnivorous tick that he is, would do so much better trying to convince the world to eat less meat than yammering about cars and light bulbs. :egads:

Regardless, this problem isn't the fault of the U.S.! Much of the rest of the world is actually becoming more prosperous and wants to eat/live like the West which increases demands on all kinds of things. This is ultimately GOOD for trade, but of course can cause temporary shortages. But again, of course, newsmakers can only report the bad, and the UN predictably uses it as a reason to demand more money... :rolleyes:

Just as 'global warming' was changed to 'climate change' so the media and interested parties could scream every time ANYTHING happens with the weather, we could call the current period "economic change" and its 'disastrous' effects.

If gas prices are 2x what they were less than 5 years ago, are we using twice as much gas? Sales of SUVs may have jumped, cars may have much more hp than they used to, but that's an enormous price jump. I can't believe its all supply/demand. If gas use doubled in 5 years, how would production keep up without shortages?

It's a GLOBAL market for oil/gasoline so increase in U.S. demand is only a small part of the picture. China's increase in oil/gasoline demand each year is vast.

As for supply, OPEC has regulated supply in their own interests. They COULD easily supply more oil than they do which would ease prices, but they don't. They have the world held for ransom.

... I can't believe its all supply/demand. If gas use doubled in 5 years, how would production keep up without shortages?

...well thats not how it works, despite what a lot of people say it's not a supply/demand market. in your example the price is just reset. the futures market can do what it wants but the futures market does not determine the price of oil over any major term

i guess gas is going to be one of those "back in the day" stories. I remember filling up my honda civic with 15 bucks. I remember when gas was 2.50 and i was a broke college kid. I wish prices were still 2.50. Its getting closer and closer to 4 bucks. :sad:

when i was a broke college kid gas was 0.55. geez i'm old :cry:

Paul

Housing issues were only slightly caused by over speculation, most were were caused by Greenspans policies or lack of . Not Clinton, not Bush, but the runaway banking system which wiggled a lollipop in front of every American in offering them a $500,000 loan with no docs.

Point is as you pick apart every single line of my posts, it that there is nothing wrong with people getting prepared for a long recession which many already believe we are in whether you want to believe anyone else other than yourself is irrelevant. If you choose to ignore all of signs because your source for the news counters every economic indicator (would you like examples of that too?) is of course your choice. Do you really believe the economy is fine?

Bringing up links to old crime statistics means little to this discussion as many of the increased issues we now face have reared itself just in the last few days because we have an administration that is completely out of touch with the American people and continues it's arrogant policies of ignoring the needs of the people to pursue it's own agenda-mainly Iraq.

A nation cannot spend a trillion dollars on a war and not expect there to be some economic consequence to the people of that nation and yet at the same time blame a person (Gore ) on the state of not only this country but for others when he was never even elected. Sound like a scapegoat excuse to me.

Did it ever cross your mind that perhaps there are other intelligent people in this world that believe equally in their opinions on how we reached this point? If Americans and other nations want to believe in Gore then that is certainly their choice to do and if a great many people choose this course then perhaps a nation would wake up and understand the needs of the people instead of blaming the media for everything.

Putting people to work as you put it is much more complicated than that, and living off of $8.00 an hour in California is simply going to take the economy far. I would think that it applies to Florida as well where housing is just as bad as it is in California.

Yep, this is what i'm thinking too. diesel truck = my friend. :thumbup:

I have a few friends who own small restaurants and enough spare time to make the fuel but it seems like a pretty serious investment to buy all the materials needed to make the fuel and i'd hate to pay $4 a gallon for diesel if I can't refill at my house. :(

i don't want to stray too far off topic, but one could actually run the vegetable oil straight into the fuel tank, as well as used (filtered) ATf, and motor oil. of course, the wvo could only be used in hot summer months straight into th tank or it would gel in teh lines and injectors. a seperate fuel system for the wvo could be installed using solenoids and lines to be able to start the truck on diesel, then switch to wvo after it's warmed by the system, and then run on that until the destination is reached, at that point, you switch to diesel, run for a few seconds, and shut off the engine.

boom, no more dependence on foreign oil, no more being held ransom by stock traders and oil companies, no more being worried about having to drive a pos little pod to work every day. i'll be cruisng to work in a 3/4 ton dodge, burning wvo and still getting 20 mpg!