Gas prices to fall? A companion thread to Gas prices - what r u doing about it?
I came across this article that puts things in perspcetive ... and provides some hope. Mods, if you wish to move or delete this please do. I was just trying to provide some hope.
The FORTUNE article is titled "Why oil prices will tank". An especially revealing excerpt reads:
"The story is much the same with oil, with a twist. A big swath of the market isn't really paying that $125 a barrel number you hear about seemingly every hour. In China, India and the Middle East, governments are heavily subsidizing oil for their consumers and corporations, leading to rampant over-consumption - and driving up prices even more.
But sooner or later the world won't keep paying those prices: Eventually, the price must fall back to the cost of that last barrel to clear the market.
So what does that barrel cost today? According to Stephen Brown, an economist at the Dallas Federal Reserve, that final barrel costs just $50 to produce. And when the price is $125, the incentive to pour out more oil, like homebuilders' incentive to build more two years ago, is irresistible."
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/06/news...=ib_topstories
Last edited by lexdud; Jun 6, 2008 at 06:57 AM.
Last edited by 19psi; Jun 6, 2008 at 07:31 AM.
that's why I drive the litte Honda Insight...I try to screw the oil companies as much as I can + saves me money....if EV were readily available, I'd have one of those too --- to screw them even more.
Last edited by bagwell; Jun 6, 2008 at 07:58 AM.
Trending Topics
Oil surges $11 day to record $138
Crude skyrockets on a sliding dollar, geopolitics and a Wall Street report predicting $150-a-barrel oil.
By Catherine Clifford and Ben Rooney, CNNMoney.com staff writers
Last Updated: June 6, 2008: 3:05 PM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices shot up nearly $11 a barrel and settled Friday at a record $138.54 - driven by geopolitical jitters, a dollar decline stemming from a weak jobs report and a forecast that oil would hit $150 by July 4.
Friday's spike in the July contract for light crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange marks the largest singe-day increase in oil prices on record. It it an intraday record of $139.12, breaking the previous trading record of $135.09.
"The bulls are running rampant and the bears have panicked," said oil industry analyst Stephen Schork, editor of the Schork Report. "It's pure hysteria, absolute panic," he added.
Trading of heating oil futures was briefly suspend earlier Friday morning after the contract reached a "circuit breaker limit."
Comments by an Israeli Deputy Prime Minister, Shaul Mofaz , revived concerns that instability in the Middle East could cause supply disruptions.
"If Iran continues its program to develop nuclear weapons, we will attack it," Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz told Yediot Ahronot, Israel's largest mass-circulation daily.
Mofaz's comments mean the return of the "Iran risk premium," said Antoine Halff in a research report released Friday.
Though the market's reaction "seems overplayed" and is "likely to prove short-lived," the minister's remarks "bring home the point that the dispute over Iran's nuclear program remains unresolved and that the risks of military confrontation are indeed increasing," Halff said.
"This will likely be a growing source of market volatility until a solution to the dispute is found," he added.
Meanwhile, the euro rallied to $1.5659 from $1.5593 late Thursday, after the Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate rose to 5.5% in May from 5% in April, the biggest monthly jump in more than two decades. The economy lost 49,000 jobs in May, marking the fifth straight month of job losses.
The dollar rose to ¥105.96 from ¥105.64 late Thursday.
Also contributing to the surge: Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) analyst Ole Slorer released a report saying that he expected a "short-term spike in oil prices," as high as $150 a barrel by July 4.
ECB puts pressure on the dollar
The dollar began its slide Thursday after European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet said the bank might raise interest rates, which would strengthening the value of the euro. If the euro gains, oil becomes cheaper, European investors buy more oil, raising the price of oil in U.S. dollars, according to Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Alaron Trading.
The "European Central Bank pulled the rug out from under us," said Flynn.
Trichet's comments came the day after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he wanted to try to support the dollar to bring energy prices into check. "The two central banks are out of step with each other," he said.
Global demand, especially for gas and distillates in emerging markets, supported the record build in crude prices.
However, the governments of a number of countries, such as India and Malaysia, have started lifting their government fuel subsidies, prompting gas prices to rise in those nations.
Israel said an attack on Iranian nuclear sites is unavoidable, and according to Flynn, geopolitical tensions in the region also pushed the price of oil higher.
Retail gas prices
Gas prices have risen to record levels in the past year on the back of record oil prices. The price of crude has more than doubled in the past year.
AAA reported Friday that the national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline fell to $3.986, down 0.3 cent from the previous day's record high of $3.989. Prices at the pump had hit records for 28 of the past 29 days before Friday.
Consumers should expect gas prices to stay at high levels, adding as much as a nickel or a dime in the next couple of weeks, if oil prices continue to march higher, said Flynn.
The AAA survey shows gas prices are up more than 10% from a month ago and more than 27% higher from year-ago levels.
A government supply report released Wednesday said that gasoline demand slackened over the week including Memorial Day, showing that consumers have cut back on their driving in the face of record high gas prices.
The average price for gas has passed the $4 a gallon mark in 12 states, as well as in Washington, D.C. Those states where gas has already passed the $4 include Alaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Michigan, Nevada, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington, and West Virginia.
The most expensive state for buying gas is California, where a gallon of regular unleaded costs an average of $4.398 according to AAA. The second most expensive state is Alaska, where a gallon of gas costs $4.299.
The least expensive state for purchasing gas is South Carolina, where a gallon costs $3.787 a gallon on average. The second least expensive state for gas is Missouri, where a gallon runs $3.788 a gallon.
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But in the end something has got to give, dollar will end up going back up and oil will drop, but not to the 1-2$ prices we had.
What we CAN complain about here in America, though, is that we brought at least part of this on ourselves because of our political refusal to allow more drilling, oil shale extraxction, and refinery construction. Congress COULD allow these things, but simply won't. The environmentalists have got us into a position where we simply cannot get enough supply to meet demand, and we are paying a hefty price for it..
What we CAN complain about here in America, though, is that we brought at least part of this on ourselves because of our political refusal to allow more drilling, oil shale extraxction, and refinery construction. Congress COULD allow these things, but simply won't. The environmentalists have got us into a position where we simply cannot get enough supply to meet demand, and we are paying a hefty price for it..
Also, adding to the fact distances traveled there are MUCH less than overhear, because everything is more compact other there, so if you look at it, how often must they fill up? If Raph TT would please explain his commute and how often he fills up I would appreciate it.











