Toyota and Lexus May Soon Admit The Current EV Plan Was a Major Mistake
EVs are not going away, but the current EV plan Toyota has is inefficient and short-sighted. A dramatic shift in their approach is coming.
EV automobiles are a topic that is sure to stir up a lively debate. Some folks have dug in their heels and swear they will never give up their internal combustion engines. Other folks can’t wait to get their hands on EVs and will never go back to traditional vehicles. And still other people are taking a bit of a wait and see approach and will maybe consider an EV when the technology improves. But the way you feel might not even matter because governments and therefore manufacturers are mandating EVs so here they come. Toyota has already committed massive resources to EV platforms. The problem is that Toyota is now realizing that their current EV plan may need to be scrapped if they hope to remain competitive with the likes of Tesla.
Let’s be clear. Toyota is not abandoning the idea of building EVs. They are not shifting from that plan to a new plan to develop nothing but gasoline powered V8 engines. The EV is still the path forward. But the way they are manufactured and the current e-TNGA platform is not going to allow Toyota to reach their goals. An informative video regarding this was recently posted on the Kirk Kreifels YouTube channel. In this video he describes the problem with the current EV plan and what Toyota might do to change course. Additionally, he references an article from Automotive News that discusses how the current mining process is woefully unprepared to produce enough minerals for all the batteries that will be needed in EVs. Let’s discuss.
Quick Recap
The video is posted below, and we highly suggest you give it a watch if you are at all interested in EVs or just the future of Toyota in general. It is informative and contains a lot of detail. We are not going to restate everything said in the video line by line. But a quick recap is in order. At a high level the problem is this. Toyota has the e-TNGA platform for its battery electric vehicles. The idea was to use that platform for the foreseeable EV future. But Toyota is realizing that the platform has limitations. The way it is produced is not allowing Toyota to be profitable enough. Also, EVs are taking off faster than predicted and Toyota will not be able to meet projected sales volume with that platform. So, they are looking at Tesla as the benchmark for EV production.
While Toyota has a major rethink going on they have halted work on some of the 30 EV projects that were announced last December. That includes the Toyota Compact Cruiser and the EV Toyota Crown. The current thinking is that Toyota needs to develop a new architecture from the ground up for EV products to be as efficient and profitable as needed. This approach could take up to five years before models are ready for the market.
Stopgap
It seems that Toyota is realizing that e-TNGA was only a stopgap measure to get some EVs out. But the company may have not realized until recently the significant push that would come from governments and the public for more EVs. And now with that push Toyota is in a bit of a bind. They look at Tesla because of their experience with EV manufacturing. However, they need to use a bit of caution here. A Toyota is known for being well built and reliable. A Tesla, not so much. We are sure Toyota can learn a thing or two from Tesla but there are some traits we hope they don’t adopt.
Not Enough Batteries
This is not specific to Toyota but a general EV plan concern. According to Automotive News mining activities for lithium, nickel and cobalt are going to need a major boost to meet demand. According to the report we will need 50 more lithium mines, 60 more nickel mines, and 17 more cobalt mines. Getting a single new mine up and running in the U.S. can take as long as a decade. And of course, none of these mines are friendly to the planet that we are trying to save by moving forward with EVs. Something has to change. Battery technology is constantly improving, and we may come to a point where we don’t need these minerals for the batteries in our electric vehicles. But we are not there yet, and with government mandates looming this could become a major issue in the next few years.
Back to Toyota
The EV plan shift at Toyota has not been officially announced by the company. At this point it is based on reports from people close with the company. But it is possible that an official announcement could come in the next couple months. We will keep a close eye on this story and report on any future developments.
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