bitkahuna

iTrader: (20)

scary graphs aside, lol, so if in 2023, 70% of 15.8% sales were BEVs that's 11%. so ice/hev were 'only' 89% of sales.

the EV market needs a battery, cost, or charging/availability breakthrough to go from 'early adopter' phase to 'mainstream'. when camry/rav4/f150 buyers decide to buy ev's instead, it's happened.

keep doing that confirmation bias 'research' with bogus 'studies'.

situman

I feel like sales of hybrids and EVs have decoupled from gas prices. Up until this quarter, Tesla had record deliveries every quarter, even while gas prices were down over the last year to year and a half. People just realized the benefits of hybrids and that its best of both worlds at this point. Plus the new Prius Prime can almost keep up with some hot hatches and returns 50mpg+ is a testament to how far it has come.

asj2024

Pretty much all studies show that mining and production of Lithium ion batteries produce more pollutants.

https://elements.visualcapitalist.co...gine-vehicles/

https://climate360news.lmu.edu/lithi...as-we-thought/

That is, I'm not talking about considering the entire lifecycle, where electrified vehicles win over pure ICE over the long lifecycle, just the initial production of the vehicles.

situman

Should they just dive head first into BEV and lose billions like Ford? Even Tesla is starting to struggle at this point. The battery tech is not ready, the charging infrastructure is not ready, consumers for the most part is not ready for the full transition. Even the government is smart enough to recognize those points. Why would Toyota, arguably, the smartest car company in the world dive head first into an empty pool?

situman

I dont think I agree with Toyota becoming risk adverse. Waiting on the sidelines in itself is a huge risk, where they can easily be left behind in this fast moving world. Everything that Toyota does is highly calculated and well thought out and people criticized and laughed at them for not jumping head first into the EV market. They said EVs are not ready for prime time and multiple power train options is the way to go and they were absolutely spot on. Sure, hydrogen is a dud, EV is the future and the bridge to get there are hybrids.

situman

What does the 2024 chart look like? You dont think the huge deceleration in growth from 2021 to 2023 is concerning?

geko29

No one expected growth to continue to double every year. If it did, this year EVs would make up 2/3 of all car sales, and next year they would be 133%.

asj2024

I think the problem is all plans expected significantly higher growth. One projection was 1.6 million vehicles in 2023 for the USA. It did not come close to that.

https://fortune.com/2024/01/08/us-ev...-will-johnson/

Such slow growth will not be good, given that total EVs in the USA are only less than 1% of all cars on the road.

The other problem for the automakers was the rise of Chinese EV automakers, who are now very good at making EV for low cost and thus controlling the largest auto market in the world, screwing not only Toyota but most other automakers, especially Tesla I would think.

situman

Why not? If the demand is there and the products are there, doubling of worldwide demand is child's play. Also, if the demand is truly there, there's no reason for the price cuts, especially here in the US. Yes China is trying to dump EVs and dominate the market with government subsidies, but if there's real demand, people would buy it at real prices.

geko29

So you think it's totally logical to expect that, on a global sales volume of say, 75 million vehicles of all types in 2025, that 100 million of those will be EVs? You took different math courses than I did.

situman

It's not about math. Its about trends. If EVs are expected to overtake ICE in the next 4 to 5 yrs, it has to grow at 50% or possibly yoy. It cant taper down to 25% growth and thats with price cuts and subsidies. You've captured the 10% of the market is are first movers and tech curious. The other 90% is going the sensible route with hybrids. Hyrbids are growing at the expense of EVs right now.

asj2024

BEVs are at 7% of new sales in the USA last I read. You won't take over anything at that rate anytime soon when 93% of new sales is hybrids and pure ICE, and you only make up less than 1% of the total cars on the road (and that includes PHEVs). Not unless there are large government mandates that last a couple or more decades.

situman

Well if your stats are accurate, then EVs should definitely have room to grow at a much higher rate than it is now and without price cuts. After all the early adopters and tech curious, most realize EVs are not for them yet. Take this article for what is worth.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla...134038780.html

peteharvey

TMC is betting on hybrids - as a stop gap - until alternative battery chemistries boom, possibly in the next decade.

There is a lot more to motor vehicles than just 0-60, smoothness and quietness.

Battery chemistries must be:
1) Naturally abundant.
2) Not monopolised by "warmongering" nations [which cannot be discussed further].
3) Minimal mining and environmental impact.
4) Rapid charging.
5) High energy density for compactness, lightweight and long range.
6) Robust underpans - can't just scrape the underpan and be in for $40,000 because not covered under warranty.
7) Safety with minimal volatility and explosiveness.
8) Long term longevity and durability.
9) Environmental recyclability.

The good news for Toyota Motor Corp and the whole world is that superior battery chemistries are on the horizon...

LeX2K

Very rarely does technology take an instant leap instead things iterate. Which is exactly what we're seeing with battery tech and EV's since the Model S was released batteries now have higher density, way cheaper and charge faster. This curve will continue for at least another 10 years.