asj2024

Toyota's argument that people want hybrids (HEV and PHEV) seems to be correct as hybrids led the pack of good news for them this quarter in North America.

Toyota jumps 21%, Lexus up 15% in Q1 hybrid boom
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...302105962.html

Even the aging Prius got a huge 138% boost thanks to the new looks and hybrid surge
https://carbuzz.com/strong-toyota-prius-sales/

Toyota has thus started to push hybrid only models, including the 2025 Camry. And since this is the best selling car in the USA, it's a big bet that people will be ok with this.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/15/busin...nly/index.html

Is this a good move?
Will it alienate some buyers or will people take it in stride?
Is this its strategy to slowly move people to an all-electric in future?

Personally, I think it's a good idea, and the way they slowly implement the move seems to be the right way of doing things. I've driven a hybrid for a long time now. There are still fears about the traction hybrid battery as the car ages, but the cost of replacement nowadays has decreased quite a bit, and given Toyota reliability this usually does not happen until well into the car's 2nd decade.

asj2024

This new CNBC vid kinda summarizes why Toyota is staying fast and bearing down on hybrids.

During the last quarter hybrids took up 10% of new sales, and Toyota dominates that market, with Toyota going up to 50% share of that market vs only 40% last year


Hybrid sales are growing very fast (50% growth year over year), and they are flying off the lots fastest among any car type (I def can see this with the Prius, where it took me a while to even see one on the lot)

mmarshall

For many people, a hybrid makes more sense than a pure BEV. I wish GM, particulary Buick would offer hybrids. Buick currently offers only gas engines in the American market, and plans to switch to all-BEV by 2030, skipping hybrids altogether.

asj2024

I remember GM just rolled back plans to go all BEV by that time, and instead focus on hybrids.

https://insideevs.com/news/706727/gm-hybrid-phev-news/

Not sure whether that would include Buicks, but I assume so.

Fizzboy7

The popularity of hybrids and electrics is directly tied to gas pump prices. Everytime gas prices spike, hybrid and EV sales spike. Everytime gas prices drop, hybrid and EV sales slumber. This has been the case for years, but the media has never caught onto the connection. Instead, the headline, "no one is buying EV's" sells much better and our feeble society gobbles up the hype news.

So the point here is there will be ups and downs for gas/hybrid/EV car sales based on gas prices. No one particular answer or trend to what type of cars should be built for the future.

mmarshall

Thanks....great Post. I hope that story is accurate. I thought the Buick All-BEV-by-2030 change was one of the dumbest decisions the company ever made.

Anyhow, back to Toyota. I wouldn't be surprised if they went to an all-hybrid policy. It would at least make some sense, considering that, almost a quarter-century ago, in August of 2000, Toyota introduced the first true (Parallel) hybrid vehicle in the U.S.....the Prius. Yes, the original Honda Insight preceded it in January of that year (I got to test-drive one of the first Insights to reach the Washington D.C. area)...but the 1Gen Insight was actually more of a tiny toy than a real car, and had a simpler Series-Hybrid system (Honda's Integrated Motor Assist). The IMA was basically just a small electric motor that boosted the gas engine when needed and acted as a starter for the idle-stop....the two motors could not run separately from one another like with the Prius.

SW17LS

I’m not a fan, personally. I don’t like Toyota’s hybrid system, especially with 4 cyls. I don’t like CVTs and find them droning and not enjoyable to drive. The 4cyl hybrid powertrain in the Sienna for instance immediately took it out of the running for us.

mmarshall

CVTs have come a long way since the earliest ones used by Toyota....and the early ones used by Nissan that were unreliable junk. In fact, just a few years ago, Toyota itself introduced a CVT with a built-in conventional first-gear that starts the unit off from rest like a traditional automatic, and, once the vehicle gets rolling, switches to the belt-drive system in the CVT. That eliminates a lot of the motorboating/rubber-banding sensations you typically get with CVTs accelerating froma lower speeds. I sampled one of those newer Toyota CVTs in an upper-trim version of the Corolla few years ago, and noticed the difference.

703

Hybrids are much of muchness. Not new, it’s just an evolution of a full ICE drivetrain.

i have owned more than 3 Lexus hybrids in the last 13 years and would not go back to any conventional ICE. It’s either hybrid or BEV.

The only thing different today is that it’s offered by Toyota and Lexus consistently across all models and you no longer have to drive a Prius.

JDR76

I'm pretty impartial. My wife and kids are out of town for spring break, so I have been driving my wife's Highlander Hybrid this week and I do fully admit that it's a very pleasing drivetrain. Super smooth, quiet, and powerful, yet delivers solid fuel economy. Would my next car HAVE to be a hybrid? No, not at all, but I wouldn't be against it if it were.

sorptd

Toyota has played it very smartly. By having a more calibrated approach towards electrification they have put themselves in a very strong position. If they could produce more hybrids thier sales figures would be even better. Just a fantastic example of excellent product planing and strategy.

asj2024

I think everyone pretty much knows this correlation, but as you say, that does not make sexy headlines.

However, there might be new factors in play here.

There might be a general sense among the public that we are slowly (and inevitably) moving away from pure ICE, especially with all the headlines and the upcoming mandates bombarding people all the time.

The fact that BEVs are now the "extreme" choice also makes hybrids the "sensible middle choice". Many people who would not consider a hybrid 10 years ago are now jumping in, especially as Toyota has shown over decades that the technology is a proven, mainstream and reliable one.

So, even though gas prices have come down and BEV sales are slowing, this is not the case for hybrid electric.

LeX2K

What this horrible strategy is actually doing is cementing Toyota into a technology that is going to be replaced by true zero emissions vehicles. Toyota is doing the opposite of what they did with hybrids 25 years ago, think long term. This is a short term play that will have disastrous consequences.

For me personally this ensures I will never buy a Toyota again.

Sodbuster1

Results speak louder than words.

peteharvey

I think TMC is going in the right direction with hybrids.
Once they achieve a breakthrough in alternative battery chemistries like solid state batteries - only then can TMC really make a transition from hybrids to BEV's.

Right now, it is okay to have lithium powered BEV's on a small scale niche market which the Chinese control.
However, right now it is most foolish for the world to move into ageing 1991 Sony lithium ion technology in a big way.