Gojirra99

July 8, 2004


Irvine, California - Recent surveys by Autobytel show a strong shift toward smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles and away from larger vehicles. Autobytel is an online car purchase referal service available to US residents.

Overall, relatively small, fuel-efficient cars showed big gains in the second-quarter of 2004, with requests to buy the fuel-friendly Volkswagen Jetta and New Beetle up 30% and requests for the Honda Civic up 29%. The upswing in requests for the Civic moved the vehicle to the 2nd spot in Autobytel's year-to-date ranking of its most requested vehicles, just behind the popular Honda Accord. The Mazda6 and Hyundai Sonata (both up 23%) continued to be popular with online shoppers in the second quarter, while the Mazda3 made its debut among the most requested vehicles overall on the Autobytel network.

According to Autobytel's consumer data, hybrids are quickly entering the car-buying mainstream. Toyota has enjoyed the biggest increase in vehicle Purchase Requests of any vehicle on Autobytel's network this year -- generating a 41% increase in Purchase Requests in the second quarter alone. The once-flagging Honda Insight, meanwhile, is resurging with a 30% gain in Purchase Requests since Q1 2004.

According to a recent Autobytel survey of automobile dealers, thirty-three percent of dealers surveyed said fuel efficiency outweighed brand, styling, performance, safety and roominess as a consumer buying consideration. Eighty-two per cent of dealers, meanwhile, said their customers are more interested in fuel-efficiency and/or fuel- efficient vehicles than they were a year ago. The majority (52%) said they're now having a harder time selling SUVs or trucks than a year ago, despite hefty incentives on many of the larger domestics. While 51% said they would make no changes in their inventory mix, nearly half (45%) said that they are adding, or will soon add, more fuel-friendly vehicles to their inventory mix at the expense of larger trucks/SUVs.

Another recent Autobytel survey, which queried 3,000 shoppers on the company's car buying web sites, reflects the online buying trends illustrated above. Forty-four per cent of those surveyed indicated they would shop for a smaller vehicle with better fuel-efficiency, while 60% said they would sacrifice interior space and performance for better fuel-efficiency.

The flip side of the soaring popularity of smaller, more fuel-efficient cars is lower demand for trucks and SUVs. Purchase Requests were down for the most popular trucks and SUVs -- with the biggest drop-offs suffered by the biggest models. Requests for the Ford Expedition, for example, were off 25% versus Q1 2004, while requests for the Hummer H2 -- the one-time darling of the utility set -- fell 47%. The honeymoon for the new Nissan Armada, meanwhile, appears threatened, as requests fell nearly 18% in the second quarter. Other import SUVs did not fare much better than their domestic counterparts, with the Toyota Sequoia down 12%, the Toyota Land Cruiser 30% off the pace and the Volkswagen Touareg dropping 37% since the first quarter.

Minivans were an exception. The minivan category continues to defy the downward trajectory of its SUV/truck brethren. The Ford Freestar is leading the rebellion, with a 67% increase in requests in Q2 2004 vs. Q1 2004. The Chrysler Town and Country (up 16%), Mazda MPV (up 12%), Dodge Caravan (up 11%) and Dodge Grand Caravan (up 8%) are also bucking the smaller-is-better trend. Recent redesigns and upgrades appear to be popular with family car shoppers, such as the new Toyota Sienna and Chrysler's Stow 'n Go seating and storage configuration. All three DaimlerChrysler minivans -- the Chrysler Town & Country (+16%), Dodge Caravan (+11%) and Dodge Grand Caravan (+8%) posted solid gains in the second quarter. Combined, Dodge and Chrysler minivans are up 12 over the first quarter of 2004.




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mmarshall

I think the real future of fuel-efficient cars is going to be in small diesels......they offer basically the same mileage ( on cheaper fuel ) than hybrids do......and with MUCH less complexity in their drivetrains and a lower cost to manufacture.
What has traditionally held up the market here in America for the small European diesels has been the lack of good, low-sulfur diesel fuel here like that sold in Europe. The diesel fuel sold here is basically garbage.....blended for trucks and railroad locomotives that have no emission controls at all.
Diesels pollute less than gas engines in some areas but more in others....which explains why some of the VW diesels are not sold in CA or the Northeastern states with CA emissions.
Today's diesels are nothing at all like the ones of 20 and 25 years ago...they are virtually indistinguishable from gas engines. And with the clean urea injection systems that the engineers are working on today for diesels and the EPA-mandated low-sulfur fuel that we will start getting here in America in 2006, I think that hybrids are going to be passe.....you are going to see a lot of the European diesels start to be sold here.

Gojirra99

Passe? Fossil fuels won't last forever you know ....

mmarshall

True, but diesels in my opinion are a better way to stretch out what is left than hybrids....for the reasons I posted. I'd also like to see a conversion to alcohol as another option...it burns clean, has high octane, is safer than gasoline, and can be made from American corn. Its only drawback is low BTU resulting in low mileage and the need for bigger fuel tanks. The open-wheel racing leagues have already converted to it.
But it cannot be used in existing gas cars because it corrodes fuel lines.

Gojirra99

I see developing better & better electric motors for cars thru hybrids as the way to go in the longer term. Developing & refining any new technology is an uphill battle, but somebody needs to continue working on them.

VSsc400

iTrader: (1)

filling up $40+ on my SC is not fun.... especially when your round trip to work is 80+ miles a day.

talgrl626

so mmarshall, do u think for us california drivers, should we cancel the idea of buying a hybrid and just wait for a diesel in 2006? from what u describe above, CA won't get diesel cars and US doesn't offer qualitied diesel rite?

mmarshall

talgrl, we won't really know the complete answer to that question for another couple of years but the main reason CA doesn't get diesels now is because of the particulate emissions ( in other words...soot ) that diesels traditionally produce. CARB (the California Air Resources Board) won't approve existing V W diesels for sale in the state.....and no others are currently being offered, though Mercedes has plans to bring an E-class diesel back shortly. However, engineers are working on a urea-injection system for diesels that is similiar in effect to gas-engine catalysts that will address the particulate emissions. The EPA has also mandated clean low-sulfur diesel fuel by 2006, so the oil companies will no longer have any choice...they MUST produce it, period.
My opinion?....I think that the new efficient European diesels, when Americanized, will be worth the wait. By 2006 they should meet even the CA and Northeastern state emission regs, and do so without all the complexity and production expense of hybrids. I agree with SexySC that hybrid technology should be pursued in the meantime, but I disagree that gas-electric combinations are really the ultimate way to go, and the pure electric cars simply don't have the range for anything over 20-40 miles under high-load conditions.
So...I think the diesels will be worth the wait. Unless there are a LOT of unforseen problems, they should be available in CA by 2006 or 2007. Part of it will depend on whether Schwartznegger is still governor...he is seen as car-friendly. And todays diesels are nothing like those of 20-25 years ago. Today's diesels start right up, even in cold weather, are just as quiet as gas engines except for a little clatter at idle, have plenty of torque at low RPM's, and get 30-40% better mileage than gas engines...on sometimes cheaper fuel.

Gojirra99

Toyota and Shell do gas-to-liquid trial

Toyota and Shell are launching a trial of Shell's Gas to Liquids (GTL) fuel in a fleet of 10 Avensis diesel models. This research programme tests the new GTL fuel, a synthetic fuel derived from natural gas which burns more cleanly than conventional diesel with virtually no emissions of sulphur and significantly-reduced emissions of particulates and nitrous oxide. It can be used in modern diesel engines without the need for any conversions. Shell is to build the world's first GTL plant in Qatar to produce the fuel.

Source: www.channel4.com/4car