Self-Driving Vehicles
12-02-18, 07:14 PM
#826
Marshall, I agree with all of those things. The sum of those problems is exactly why full autonomous will never happen for the larger public. Im glad you and I get along because you see things objectively, as things should be seen.
And im just loling at some peoples' knowledge on AI. Yall do know that the best AI systems in place are in video games, right? And they can't even get that right. And these developers are some of the brightest folks you can hire. To add insult to injury, video game AI have been in development for the past 20 years. Autonomous vehicles? 6ish.
And im just loling at some peoples' knowledge on AI. Yall do know that the best AI systems in place are in video games, right? And they can't even get that right. And these developers are some of the brightest folks you can hire. To add insult to injury, video game AI have been in development for the past 20 years. Autonomous vehicles? 6ish.
And mmarshall Och's responses are all based that Autonomous cars won't happen in NYC which I do agree is one of the most unique and challenging places to drive. Self driving car technology isn't just going to go away especially when the government is helping with research and efforts. https://www.transportation.gov/av/3
12-02-18, 07:32 PM
#827
Lexus Fanatic
And mmarshall Och's responses are all based that Autonomous cars won't happen in NYC which I do agree is one of the most unique and challenging places to drive. Self driving car technology isn't just going to go away especially when the government is helping with research and efforts. https://www.transportation.gov/av/3
I'm not saying that the chances are absolute zero that reasonably-competent self-driving cars will arrive (and I don't think that theory816 or Och are, either). Just that the problems are far more complex and widespread (and will continue to be) than a lot of people realize. Tesla and Google have already found that out, with accidents and fatalities.
12-02-18, 07:51 PM
#828
I'm not saying that the chances are absolute zero that reasonably-competent self-driving cars will arrive (and I don't think that theory816 or Och are, either). Just that the problems are far more complex and widespread (and will continue to be) than a lot of people realize. Tesla and Google have already found that out, with accidents and fatalities.
12-03-18, 11:14 AM
#829
12-03-18, 11:25 AM
#831
Pole Position
And im just loling at some peoples' knowledge on AI. Yall do know that the best AI systems in place are in video games, right? And they can't even get that right. And these developers are some of the brightest folks you can hire. To add insult to injury, video game AI have been in development for the past 20 years. Autonomous vehicles? 6ish.
12-03-18, 12:59 PM
#832
In programming, just one little feature can have 100 to million of lines of code. The U.S. military drone uses 3.5 million lines of code. All that thing has to do is take off, land, and fly through the air and not account for anyone else in sight. And if you know anything about military research and development, it aint cheap.
An autonomous drone is programmed to do 3-10 things autonomously. A publicly used autonomous car has to be programmed to do 30-50 things autonomously. That is why SuperCruise only works on a straight line highway. So yea, full autonomy is not going to happen. Maybe in 200 years.
I want to be chauffeured by a car also, but its not going to happen. And I can LOL all I want because, as of now, there's no full autonomous car on public roads. Maybe you'll get the last laugh, but we'd all be dead by then.
An autonomous drone is programmed to do 3-10 things autonomously. A publicly used autonomous car has to be programmed to do 30-50 things autonomously. That is why SuperCruise only works on a straight line highway. So yea, full autonomy is not going to happen. Maybe in 200 years.
LOL all you want, but you're wrong (and I'm not even referencing your video game comment which is absurd). I'm deep on knowledge in AI, neural networks, natural language processing, and machine learning so with all due respect, I know what I'm talking about and can spot people who don't. If a computer can read through MRI and CT scans to diagnose you with cancer (happening now), I have confidence in ultimately letting the computer drive me to the hospital.
Last edited by theory816; 12-03-18 at 01:14 PM.
12-03-18, 01:09 PM
#833
Lexus Fanatic
In programming, just one little feature can have 100 to million of lines of code. The U.S. military drone uses 3.5 million lines of code. All that thing has to do is take off, land, and fly through the air and not account for anyone else in sight. And if you know anything about military research and development, it aint cheap.
An autonomous drone is programmed to do 3-10 things autonomously. An autonomous car has to be programmed to do 30-50 things autonomously. That is why SuperCruise only works on a straight line highway. So yea, full autonomy is not going to happen. Maybe in 200 years.
I want to be chauffeured by a car also, but its not going to happen.
An autonomous drone is programmed to do 3-10 things autonomously. An autonomous car has to be programmed to do 30-50 things autonomously. That is why SuperCruise only works on a straight line highway. So yea, full autonomy is not going to happen. Maybe in 200 years.
I want to be chauffeured by a car also, but its not going to happen.
12-03-18, 01:45 PM
#834
Just because something can be imagined does not mean it is practical or even possible. As a kid I mocked the "Star Trek" TV show because they so casually whizzed around the universe at Warp3 or whatever. Yeah, let's just get around that pesky Speed of Light limitation, shall we? Fine, it was in the writer's imagination, but in reality--nope. Not gonna happen.
So, sure, I can imagine myself hopping in an autonomous taxi and not giving the driving a second thought as it drives just like a human driver would around the city and country. But in reality, can you imagine the megamillion-dollar awards that would simply crush an automaker once folks start getting hurt or killed? So in reality--nope. Not gonna happen.
But, again, I can imagine an extremely-limited version of the above fantasy wherein an Interstate highway, modified to very precise standards, allows vehicles, also conforming to very precise standards, to drive completely hands-free while on that road. But we're a long ways from even that situation, in my humble opinion.
So, sure, I can imagine myself hopping in an autonomous taxi and not giving the driving a second thought as it drives just like a human driver would around the city and country. But in reality, can you imagine the megamillion-dollar awards that would simply crush an automaker once folks start getting hurt or killed? So in reality--nope. Not gonna happen.
But, again, I can imagine an extremely-limited version of the above fantasy wherein an Interstate highway, modified to very precise standards, allows vehicles, also conforming to very precise standards, to drive completely hands-free while on that road. But we're a long ways from even that situation, in my humble opinion.
12-03-18, 01:49 PM
#835
Dont tell them I told you that.
Last edited by theory816; 12-03-18 at 02:05 PM.
12-03-18, 02:59 PM
#836
Lexus Fanatic
12-03-18, 03:06 PM
#837
Lexus Champion
Just because something can be imagined does not mean it is practical or even possible. As a kid I mocked the "Star Trek" TV show because they so casually whizzed around the universe at Warp3 or whatever. Yeah, let's just get around that pesky Speed of Light limitation, shall we? Fine, it was in the writer's imagination, but in reality--nope. Not gonna happen.
Phasers on stun? Well law enforcement now uses Tasers on Stun
12-04-18, 03:31 AM
#838
Lexus Fanatic
iTrader: (20)
Looking at this as either 'everything will happen' or 'nothing will happen' isn't helpful or accurate.
self driving capability will come to more vehicles but people will still be able to drive them too so if the car can't figure something out and hopefully just stops rather than driving off a cliff
then the driver takes over to get through. So not an either or, it can be where the car, like an evolving super cruise can do some, more, or most of the driving. That alone will make a profound difference on the roads.
then the flipside is primarily self driving vehicles, starting out in special scenarios, not 'everything' like handling a blizzard in manhattan.
shuttle service is a good example, between cities on mostly highway. Goods movement between depots, ot delivery door to door as what happens at the recipient's home, the vehicle calls the customer to say come get your stuff which isn't so convenient if you're in the 10th floor of a high rise. There's access to gated communities, and many other issues. But a growing number of scnearios will be possible, with compromises.
so maybe people here, shouldn't look at things in such a binary, all or nothing, view.
self driving capability will come to more vehicles but people will still be able to drive them too so if the car can't figure something out and hopefully just stops rather than driving off a cliff
then the driver takes over to get through. So not an either or, it can be where the car, like an evolving super cruise can do some, more, or most of the driving. That alone will make a profound difference on the roads.then the flipside is primarily self driving vehicles, starting out in special scenarios, not 'everything' like handling a blizzard in manhattan.
shuttle service is a good example, between cities on mostly highway. Goods movement between depots, ot delivery door to door as what happens at the recipient's home, the vehicle calls the customer to say come get your stuff which isn't so convenient if you're in the 10th floor of a high rise. There's access to gated communities, and many other issues. But a growing number of scnearios will be possible, with compromises.so maybe people here, shouldn't look at things in such a binary, all or nothing, view.
12-04-18, 06:57 AM
#839
Lexus Fanatic
In some ways (though I'm not holding my breath, and there are very great difficulties), I hope that self-driving cars are perfected someday. I'm still, even at my age, a pretty sharp driver, in good health except for weak knees, and, though no one has a crystal ball, I don't foresee having to hang up the key/fob any time soon. Barring anything unexpected, I'll be driving safely for decades yet....yes, in big cushy sedans if possible LOL. But, let's face it, all of us, sooner or later, will get to the point where we will have to hang it up...and I'm no exception. Self-drivers, if perfected, will help make it possible for those too old or unable to drive any more to keep living a relatively normal life...along with organizations like Uber. Even with self-drivers, though, someone will still have to know how to program them so that they know where to take their occupant (s).
12-04-18, 07:40 AM
#840
In some ways (though I'm not holding my breath, and there are very great difficulties), I hope that self-driving cars are perfected someday. I'm still, even at my age, a pretty sharp driver, in good health except for weak knees, and, though no one has a crystal ball, I don't foresee having to hang up the key/fob any time soon. Barring anything unexpected, I'll be driving safely for decades yet....yes, in big cushy sedans if possible LOL. But, let's face it, all of us, sooner or later, will get to the point where we will have to hang it up...and I'm no exception. Self-drivers, if perfected, will help make it possible for those too old or unable to drive any more to keep living a relatively normal life...along with organizations like Uber. Even with self-drivers, though, someone will still have to know how to program them so that they know where to take their occupant (s).
By the time I have to hang up the keys I will have millions in my account. If I have to get around or buy miscellaneous items, I would just hire someone to do all my biddings.
Not only did I create a job but a person will be better than any computer.