Dave Hermance, executive engineer of Environmental Engineering, Toyota Technical Center U.S.A., says the automaker is on track to hit its sales goal of 100,000 gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles in 2005. Toyota Motor Corp. is launching hybrid versions of the Lexus GS and Toyota Camry in the 2007 model year to go with several other models, including the new Lexus RX 400h and Toyota Prius.

Toyota is working to develop fuel-cell vehicles, based in part on what it has learned from hybrids.

Last week, Hermance, 57, took questions from the Automotive News staff.

Is Toyota's work with hybrids helping the company develop fuel cell vehicles?

Our fuel cell vehicle uses the same battery that's in the Prius. All the learning you do today, all the parts you develop today, except for the gasoline engine, will directly be used on future fuel cell vehicles.

Hybrids are a very valuable transition. The manufacturer that knows how to do hybrids -- at this future point in time, whenever it is, that fuel cells are ready -- will have a significant cost and learning advantage over manufacturers that have been working on fuel cells only.

Has General Motors been on the wrong track spending so much time and money on fuel cells?

If GM thinks that's going to be their salvation in the next decade, I think that's a high-risk strategy. Fuel cells may be the endgame, but there are a couple of significant breakthroughs that are required to get there. And then there's the whole infrastructure issue that is required to get there.

GM has put a lot of their eggs in the fuel cell basket, and in the long-term they may be successful at it. We've put a lot of our eggs in the hybrid basket, with full knowledge that we still have to work on fuel cells.

Do you have to be a leader on any of these technologies, or can you be a fast follower?

With something like hybrid technology, there is a distinct advantage to being on the leading edge. By being first, you get to write this book of patents. When the guys following you start to develop their systems, many of the ideas are already going to have been thought of. And so you are either going to create an income stream by your book of patents or from cross-licensing opportunities.

What's the downside of being first?

There's a phrase they use in the engineering community: There's a fine line between being on the leading edge and being on the bleeding edge. When you get caught making a mistake, you can lose the company a lot of money. You have to be careful on picking your battles. You can't lead on every technology.


http://www.autoweek.com/news.cms?newsId=102675

 

I think it's inevitable that the endgame for the power source of cars of the future is electrical in nature, including fuel cells. The sooner manufacturers develop & refine the requisite technology, the better off they will be.