RON430

OK, now that the repairs that can easily be made in NO have been made, I have a notion to start this thread. Maybe it is too soon but I have two issues to put out there.

The first is what does everyone think will happen to gas prices? Some people have seen them decline already but many have not. Do you think the oil companies are going to keep them much higher than before? Please remember that this is a first for us Cali drivers. Most everywhere with the exception of Hawaii has had much lower prices for gas than us. Now everyone else is finding out what our gas prices are like.

The second issue is will this affect what and how you drive. I must admit that I have looked at what is available in the car guides and the new car issues and I am not that impressed. As a genuine old fart, I remember the early 70s. The lines and the price spike. And I am not particularly interested in hearing about inflation adjustments. I have a 1964 nickel and there isn't a bank in the country that is going to give me a quarter for it. In the 70s you had the arrival of the moped and I knew quite a few people that got motorcycles. There was also imported cars. Civics got great mileage and a lot were sold. Most foreign cars got very decent mileage and made a lot of sales. Now we have corrupted the foreigners (no, I don't consider selling 200,000 hybrids in a country that buys roughly 17 million vehicles a year to be significant - besides, I am not interested in going from a GS to a Prius). But I look at what's available and most everything decent stops in the mid 20s for mileage. I am not necessarily talking about the fantasy EPA numbers but the real world numbers. And, as part of this rant, there are some very nice high horsepower vehicles, domestic and import, that when driven enthusiastically, are going to give you mileage in the single digits. So what do you do if you are looking for a Lexus level of refinement and size and want say a real world 30 to 35 MPG? I don't see any such car out there now and we seem to be in the middle of the horsepower wars, not the refinement with efficiency wars. How long do you think it will be before vehicles that offer good size, luxury, high mpg, and non dangerous acceleration, handling, etc.? Or does the IS 250 with manual transmission or some other vehicle come close enough now (any real world feedback out there?) to fill the bill.

I guess the final point would be does anyone think that what just happened be a tipping point or are we just going to wait and see and hope gas goes back to 2.90 a gallon - that's where it was pre Katrina. So consider this a general automotive thread about cars, gas prices, and the future.

np20412

I've seen prices leveling off the last few days. I think by next week, the price will begin to fall as the price of wholesale falls. I think we may retreat to that 2.90-3 mark we were at before Katrina, but then slowly start the uphill climb back to over 3.25 a gallon as we were headed for before there were even any signs of Katrina. Just my .02 tho.

mmarshall

I agree with this assessment...gas may fall off some after the Katrina and panic-buying-caused shortages abate in the short run.....but in the long run, they are only headed up......the skyrocketing demand from China and India, which fueled (no pun intended) the inceases before Katrina will start to have an effect again.

Now...as to a nice Lexus-quality and refinement car that will get 30 MPG, I agree that the IS250 will merit a look.......but keep in mind that the low-profile 40 and 45-series tires on the new IS may ride rather harshly (55-series tires are no longer an option like in the past )

I know I've talked about it a lot, but the new Subaru Legacy / Outback ( 20-32K) is also worth a look. It is quite refined...especially compared to past noisy Subarus.....and the fit-and-finish on this car.....especially the interior......is nothing short of astounding for the price. The Outback's ride is noticibly softer than the Legacy's...especially the turbo Legacy GT. The non-turbo 4 gets reasonably good mileage on 87 octane....although the weight and drag of AWD slows it down a bit. The H6 and the turbo 4 have more power but use 93-octane and get a little less mileage.

(BTW, like you, I also grew up in the 60's and early 70's......so you can talk with me about those cars too.....and those gas lines.)

Inabj2

Id argue that the lack of handling some friction saving tires offer in a evasive manuever is well... dangerous. Ive had completely bald tires that still offer way more grip then these. Just look at what theyre designed to do reduce rolling friction resistance at expense of everyting else! Please dont force this upon higher model cars you will severely and totally destroy many engineering aspects built into said cars.

Offer the vehicles for those that are concerned about gas mileage, and offer the vehicles for those that want performance and even most of these still over decent gas mileage, there is a market for everyone. You wnat to save gas? they make cars just for you already, and if you want an extreme gas saver, well perhaps a flagship luxury vehicle is not for you?

Dangerous levels of accelaration?! Its called the accelarator it will accelarate as fast as you want it too. And you can never have dangerous level of accelaration (as long as the rest of the car is tuned proportionally) in case of a emergency it coudl really get you out of a jam.

Would you argue that a car that has very responsive brake system offers a dangerous level of braking as well? Im sure if in in my SC300 and were to slam on the brakes for that pedestrian and theres traffic behind me.. well... thatd be asking for trouble.

And what do you guys consider a harsh ride? I seriously fail to see how well any production vehicle I been thus far has anything id consider.. "harsh" The problem I have with cars that are consider smooth is traditionally have an extremely disconnected feel from the road with a steering that feels awkard at best and extremely light with a rather large amount of play built into it to make up for the lightness, in case you sneeze and move the wheel 30 degrees to the right doing so! Again many vehicles have the right feel for you. Perhaps a sport sedan like the IS350 is not the car for this? Move right along to the LS430? Different cars for different people. Although maybe they should consider getting a chauffer if they can afford it, not sure Im to comfortable with the idea of totally isolated drivers on the road.

RON430

I also think Subie's are maybe the best cars in their price point right now. But the six cylinder models that I have looked at get better mileage than my GS's but not enough better to do much to my gas bill. Especially when considering that on the room and luxury side, they are a big step down.

As for the gas prices, I fully agree. We tend to move to extremes but never carry through. Oil and gas took big jumps because of Katrina. But in all honesty, oil barely exceeded previous highs and is now down around pre-Katrina lows. The refineries that could be got on line are on line, or close. The pipeline that wasn't really damaged anyway is back up to capacity. But the platforms in the gulf that were severely damaged will take a long time to get back in operation. My understanding is that the two refineries that are not on line have serious damage and will not be on line anytime soon. Gas will fall somewhat, although here in Cali we haven't seen much even thought Katrina had no impact on our supply chain, but then should start slowly back up.

There continue to be talking heads piping in about oil falling to the 40 to 50 buck range and gas coming back down but my gut says that isn't likely. My energy related investments are on a tear this year and I just moved more into them. The auto industry does not move very fast and my guess is that they are watching like the rest of us to see what the impact of all this is. I still see a lot of pickups (gawd have Toyota and Nissan pickups gotten big) and SUVs (Suburbans and other full size sputes) and I shudder what those folks are paying to fill up. But the car companies will need to see problems moving those sputes and 400hp cars before they even think about developing higher mileage fleets. That means maybe there is a new breed of high mileage cars coming but probably not for five years. That is not based on any insights, just looking at the auto and oil industries for a lot of years. I was thinking of replacing my GS 430 with an LS 430 in a couple of years but that might be on hold now. And I am not really that interested in some LS XXXh that gets reasonable performance but is just going to be in the 25 to 28 mpg range if gas is going to be $4 a gallon by then.

Sometimes when you are at one of those tipping points, you don't know it until you can look back on it a few years later.

Lexusfreak

The price will level off & start to trickle downward......on a very slow pace mind you now that the last long weekend of summer is over. Prices will still be expensive all things considered so don't expect oil to go down to $40 a barrel anytime soon.

Gojirra99

AutoVIBES: Nearly 60 Percent of Vehicle Shoppers Say Gas Prices Have Either Changed Their Minds or Strongly Influenced Vehicle Purchase Decisions
Many Shoppers Seriously Considering More Fuel-Efficient Vehicles Due to Gas Prices

IRVINE, Calif., Sept. 7 -- Fifty-nine percent of U.S. in-market vehicle shoppers say that gas prices have either changed their minds or strongly influenced purchase decisions, according to the August 2005 AutoVIBES, a monthly automotive study from Harris Interactive(R) and Kelley Blue Book Marketing Research tracking consumer automotive buying intentions. This is an increase of 13 percentage points since last month and an all-time high since AutoVIBES began tracking the effect of gas prices on vehicle choice in April 2004.

In addition, 42 percent of vehicle shoppers indicate that they would seriously consider a more fuel-efficient vehicle if gas prices were to increase an additional $0.25 above the current national average (which was $2.61 per gallon on August 26, 2005). This is an increase of 12 percentage points since last month and an all-time high since tracking began in April 2004.

"With prices for gas now skyrocketing above the psychological threshold of $3 per gallon in many areas, consumers are more interested in fuel-efficient cars than at any time in the last two decades," said Jack R. Nerad, editorial director and executive market analyst for Kelley Blue Book. "Pump prices are not only pinching the pockets of today's SUV owners, but future owners as well, as we are seeing three and five year residual values on new SUVs begin to fall."

AutoVIBES is a monthly omnibus survey of approximately 2,000 U.S. adults ages 18 and over who plan to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next 12 months. This survey was conducted August 26 - 29 on Kelley Blue Book's Web site (www.kbb.com), the most visited Web site among in-market vehicle buyers. The study was designed and analyzed jointly by Harris Interactive and Kelley Blue Book Marketing Research.

The data was weighted by demographics and propensity to reflect the general U.S. adult population of in-market vehicle buyers. Though this online sample is not a probability sample, in theory, with probability samples of this size, one could say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population who plan to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next 12 months had been polled with complete accuracy.

For more information about this study, please contact Kelley Blue Book Marketing Research at 949-268-3074 or Harris Interactive at 877-919-4765.

source : theautochannel

RON430

Well I can say it is affecting my car buying future. If you watch the oil markets, having some investments in them is a great way to get interested, you see a lot of volatility. But we have that undeniable situation of virtually unlimited demand for a finite resource and the long term trend is up. Putting $50 of gas in a car at one stop is a sobering experience. I still think the shoppers are not going to be too impressed by the selection out there right now. The high mileage vehicles, lets say over 45 mpg, are not at all usable to replace a GS let alone a Suburban. The auto makers are going to watch but respond very slowly IMO.