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How long can Lexus remain #1?

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Old 07-12-07, 09:07 AM
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Default How long can Lexus remain #1?

I got to thinking yesterday about the onslaught of new models coming from the German car companies- 1 series, X6, new C Class, GL, GLK, R, coming A4, A5, R4, Q7, Q5, and others. These are models that will certainly be game-changing for their respective brands, and I wonder how this will affect Lexus.

Sales success has been great for Lexus, but traditionally we have only been fighting the 3-5-7series or C-E-S-CLK-SL and lower priced models have led the way for Lexus, over their more expensive bavarian competition. Case in point: RX and ES, now the second generation IS...the cars that when combined account for a clear majority of sales. These cars under-cut the price of their competition by thousands of dollars and undoubtedly, that has had a lot to do with their sales success. Reliability and quality too? Of course, but there is no denying that Lexus has a price-and effectively a sales- advantage. X5 and ML arrived a few years ago but the RX was first and had won over thousands of loyalists by the time they arrived, and was still priced less than either of it's German competitors.

This got me to thinking, what will happen when the tables turn and BMW's start from $25,000? And Mercedes new C300 is priced from just $31,000. Not to mention the Audi A3 which has not necessarily been a run away success, but will likely be up for a redesign shortly and Audi is gaining popularity ever faster.

Things are not stagnant at Lexus though. The new LS has been selling in record numbers, the second generation IS has been a smash hit and slam dunk in every manor possible, the RX is still selling beautifully into it's fourth year on the market, and the new LX 570 is just around the corner. The ES, despite it's quality problems, has also been selling wonderfully. Also consider the forthcoming IS coupes and hard-top convertibles, and the IS-F.

...amidst $20K BMWs and $30K Mercedes and Audis, is this really enough to retain the number one sales spot though? Considering the lower production numbers of more expensive cars like LX and LS, and the limited production of IS-F, my bet is going to be no. Simply put, more people can buy cars that cost less. When the German companies dive deeper into the entry level market, and even create products that are less expensive than Lexus models, I think that it will be inevitable that BMW, or even in the long term, Audi, will supercede Lexus as the number one luxury brand in sales.

All of that considered though, such a "dilution" of the German brands could only be good for Lexus when you think about it. Not so long ago, Jaguar was somewhat of a unique icon in the luxury car world...held in a slightly higher esteem than BMW and Mercedes because of their exclusive status and rarity. Not to the point of a Rolls Royce, but they piqued the interest a bit more when you saw one. As Lexus continues to move up market with cars like the new LS and LX, LF-A, hybrids, and "F" performance division, I also think that it is not impossible for them to surpass BMW and Mercedes in prestige, not unlike the former glory of Jaguar. Sounds like a bit of a long shot, but the upper management at Lexus has already noted that they will not go below the IS or RX, meaning that the price of admission for a Lexus will always be at least $32,000 or so...whereas that for a Mercedes, BMW, or Audi will/could be considerably less. Once the LF-A debuts, we will indeed have a higher priced product than BMW, succeeded only by AMG and V12 Mercedes models. I would expect that in the coming years, Lexus will aim to match these models from Mercedes on a performance, and effectively, a price basis. Mercedes enjoys an international status as the pinnacle of luxury, heritage, and the ultimate cache. BMW is held in a somewhat less esteemed light, but is certainly still very admirable. The downmarket ventures of both of these companies will in effect, leave open the spot of their former glory and prestige. Considering Lexus' up-market aspirations, growth, technology, increasingly affluent customer base, and product line, I do not think that it is intagible for Lexus to assume such a position.
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Old 07-12-07, 09:27 AM
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Great thread. Lexus has stated in press releases they are NOT chasing sales but if they are/remain #1, they welcome that title.

Lexus has continued to make products that people want and their prices continue to rise. It shows people want the product and think it is indeed worth the money.

Also of note, Lexus leases are not the best. People lease TONS of BMWs for instance. It counts as a "sale" but its really being rented. So for Lexus to be #1 in sales in America is even more commendable.

From the begining, Lexus/Toyota has stated and tried their best to have
-Toyota end where Lexus starts in price.
There is some product overlap but for the most part, Lexus products cost more than Toyotas.

IMO, Germans have always been diluted, just NOT in America. They have been selling Ford/Toyota etc competition cars for decades now. They still sell 4 cylinder 3/C/A4s and 6 cylinder 7/S classes etc.

Just this month, Top Gear tested a
Ford Modeo
Alpha Romeo 159
New Benz C-class
in a comparison.

The Germans have done a GREAT job in AMERICA fooling people into thinking they only sell premium cars. This is not the case. They have had very entry level cars for years now. They have done a great job protecting their prestige and image here.

Remember the 318ti? It was a fluke and the American market laughed.

10 years later, here comes the 1-series. Though its been sold in Europe for a couple years.

Audi has sold the A3 with no success here the last couple years.

The Mercedes Benz C230 hatchback was a failure here.

On the other hand, the Germans have cars priced that Lexus cannot touch. We finally have the $100,000 Lexus.

And it is selling past expectations.

However, the Germans have many cars over $100,000. Not volume sellers but they are HUGE HALO cars for each brand. They are superb in every way and showcase the BEST of that company.

With Hyundai going to RWD and V-8s and Buick getting better and Accords and Camry's etc getting better, if a luxury car company does not really differentiate themselves, they will fall in more in image. Acura, Infiniti, Saab, Volvo, etc are in trouble. Non luxury brands are getting on their territory. Then they continue to go downscale with new products, instead of up.


In just 18 years, Lexus is a tier I luxury brand. Their management has proven they have what it takes to continue their amazing run for this company. Even in EVO, CAR etc, Lexus is mentioned more and more.

The Germans will be okay as well. WORLDWIDE they have the sales advantage
Audi, BMW, Benz all sell over 1,000,000 cars.
Lexus is fourth with nearly 500,000.

What is amazing is Lexus has done it in not all the markets the Germans are in and without compact cars and sub entry level cars.
 
Old 07-12-07, 11:00 AM
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Aside from North America, Australia is another market where Lexus has done surprisingly well but their "success" in Europe really remains to be seen. Sure the IS220d and RX 400h are steps in the right direction, but I don't know that I would consider those to be necessary "success". Japan is another emerging market that started off a little rough for the company, but seems to be doing quite well now.

Personally, I would like to see Lexus focus on their product and their image more than sales. Even if Lexus sells a quarter of the cars that Mercedes and BMW do in Europe, if they don't sell any smaller than the RX and IS and sell them with premium Lexus features (like our American cars) and not as stripper models for taxi cabs and Mondeo-competitors, then they will be the only true global luxury brand short of a Bentley or Rolls Royce. One in which it's vehicles are standardized, not varied for markets like BMW and Mercedes do for Europe and then the U.S.A. Grow your brand, grow your product, and your customer base will grow itself, IMO, even if you are "growing up" whereas Mercedes and BMW seem to be "growing down" in North America.

Also interesting is the fact that the Japanese luxury companies came on the scene with something to prove to their German rivals, so naturally, they started at the bottom and have had to work their way up. Going more down market would almost be a regression of sorts. The Germans started out at the top and now have aspirations for the "bottom" level of their markets. Interesting how each has different goals. In my opinion though, if Mercedes, Audi, and BMW continue this tradition of cheaper models in larger quantities...their American image will not be unlike the European one.
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Old 07-12-07, 11:27 AM
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Looking at the entry-luxury market sales, the IS/ES is a winning combination, outselling the 3-series and TL/TSX at times, or just among them. Plus the RX is a runaway hit; the three of these vehicles give Lexus Top 10 best luxury vehicle sales in the U.S., more than any other make (I think Cadillac is second).

The core strength of those 3 vehicles keeps Lexus #1, and cheaper German luxury cars will not make the difference IMO. They lack the image, and size, to be a top 10 sales mover. I remember reading speculation that an S350 would provide serious competition for the LS 460, by being potentially much closer in price...but then again remember back in the day of the W126 and W140 S-Class there was also an I6-powered version in the U.S., it sold but not in huge numbers.

Agreed that Lexus should continue on moving upmarket, being a global luxury brand. Remaining #1 in sales is a good side effect of their success, but definitely elevating the brand is key. Can they do it all at once? We'll see, but if anyone can do it, Lexus can.
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Old 07-12-07, 12:11 PM
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Originally Posted by enigma888
The core strength of those 3 vehicles keeps Lexus #1, and cheaper German luxury cars will not make the difference IMO. They lack the image, and size, to be a top 10 sales mover.
You say they lack "image" but quite literally, that is what will be selling these cars. This is BMW's in-house Scion, of sorts. If you can get a compact, 218HP 125i/128i for the same price as a 270HP midsize CamCordTima...you're going to be selling the BMW because it has a the blue and white roundel on the hood, certainly not because it is more car for your money. I predict high school and college parking lots being FULL of the 1 series because kids are going to want a BMW for the same price as their Camrys and Accords, despite being arguably less car for the money.

IMO, make no mistake about it. Midsize mainstream cars are so good now- Camry, Aura, Altima, Accord- that to buy a subcompact premium-branded car for the same price means you are buying name, and not much else.
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Old 07-12-07, 12:16 PM
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Lexus is #1?




I kid.
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Old 07-12-07, 12:44 PM
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If they continue to produce quality vehicles and don't get tempted to cut costs to cheaper materials, i think they will hold their ground pretty well.
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Old 07-12-07, 01:19 PM
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Originally Posted by MPLexus301
You say they lack "image" but quite literally, that is what will be selling these cars. This is BMW's in-house Scion, of sorts. If you can get a compact, 218HP 125i/128i for the same price as a 270HP midsize CamCordTima...you're going to be selling the BMW because it has a the blue and white roundel on the hood, certainly not because it is more car for your money. I predict high school and college parking lots being FULL of the 1 series because kids are going to want a BMW for the same price as their Camrys and Accords, despite being arguably less car for the money.

IMO, make no mistake about it. Midsize mainstream cars are so good now- Camry, Aura, Altima, Accord- that to buy a subcompact premium-branded car for the same price means you are buying name, and not much else.
Agreed on your reasoning...yes, image will sell those cars. However, to what extent is the question. BMW, Mercedes both have discontinued their hatchback sub entry-luxury models (3-series based, C220 etc.). Yes, now BMW is trying again with the 1-series. But you raise the compelling point that the midsize mainstream is getting so much better...

...that is where the college kids will be buying their cars. Only a certain # are fooled by the badge. Most will opt for a Scion or Honda before they get the 'Mercedes/BMW for those who can't afford the real one' sub-entry level vehicle.

The number of people who will buy these vehicles just for the badge is not as high as one would think, IMO. Those college kids will be seen as posers when the other mainstream choices are much more palatable. Furthermore, BMW's own in-house studies show 75% of luxury consumers don't even consider that brand. It has a strong loyal base, but it is polarizing. Not everyone wants that particular blend of driving feel and design.

The question ultimately is...will going downmarket really help BMW/Mercedes become #1? I think BMW has a greater chance of increasing sales via this tactic, simply because it is a bottom-up company with the 3-series dominating its sales more than any other company. However, I doubt the 1-series will approach the success of the 3-series.

Furthermore, Audi/BMW/Benz can produce all the coupes and convertibles they want, but coupes and convertibles are not the big volume sellers; sedans and SUVs are. Will BMW or Benz be able to retake the #1 position? Possibly, but I think such a move would come from the core strengths, namely sedans and SUVs (the latter moreso for Acura/Infiniti).

It is also precisely because of what ISICKLEX said, the image of the Germans in the US as upmarket only, which also decreases public appetite for their sub-entry level cars.
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Old 07-12-07, 06:53 PM
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You brought up some good points enigma

I feel like Lexus has enjoyed the lead for a few years now, but not necessarily by a comfortable margin. I believe that they had something like a 15-20K unit lead over BMW and Mercedes last year which is a good amount, but I also do not think its unrealistic for BMW to sell 25,000 1 series, or Mercedes to sell 8,000 GLs, 15,000 GLKs, and 60,000 C's a year. What I am saying is that while these models may or may not technically "flop" their production numbers could still push sales above Lexus.

Lexus at the entry level is pretty maxed out. Lexus sells every RX, IS, and ES that they make and it would be difficult to extract any more sales than what they are already getting. The new IS coupe/convertible will be here next year but that will account for what...maybe 10 or 15K additional units a year at most? It is the upper part of the Lexus lineup that is seeing growth with the LS 460L, LS 600hL, GS 450h, and LX 570...models that don't necessarily accumulate much volume. BMW and Mercedes focusing more on volume sales could essentially knock Lexus out of the top spot just considering that these brands are focusing their resources and energy in different places. The current C is a bit if a "has been" and doesn't sell greatly, but the new car looks sure to change that. Add in those sales, plus a few thousand GL's and GLK's like mentioned above, and they could clearly make up for the gap between themselves and Lexus. And like I said, I think it's very realistic for BMW to sell at least 25K (likely around double that) of 1 series models for the first year.

This is all really hypothetical, though I don't think it's that far off base. We will just have to see how things shake out, but as long as Lexus continues to adhere to its business philosophy and produce some of the finest cars in the world, I think we will be fine regardless of sales.
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Old 07-12-07, 07:44 PM
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You make a compelling case...I will just add on the numbers; the sales difference is greater in recent years.

Lexus 2006 sales 322,434 units
BMW 2006 sales 274,432 units
Benz 2006 sales 248,080 units

via https://www.clublexus.com/forums/sho...d.php?t=256998

These numbers are the ones used by virtually all auto/press publications. I saw one article last year which added MINI sales to BMW, which was still not enough to surpass Lexus. In any case, the margin between BMW and Lexus was approximately 50,000. There was a period in the past years where for a few months BMW Group (BMW + MINI) was ahead, but Lexus pulled ahead in the end. Mercedes remains third with about 70,000 units difference.

The question then comes whether sales increases for the Germans will push them ahead of the others in the luxury market or not. I wonder whether 1-series sales will take a bit out of 3-series sales. The new C-Class may take a larger chunk out of 3-series, IS, TL sales...or not.

Believe it or not, Bob Carter actually was interviewed stating that he thought the 300,000+ figure was not a ceiling for Lexus volume, and that 400,000 was possible. We'll see whether that is the case. Mr. Carter also looked down on the X3/RDX/EX/GLK market as not very sustainable, or low-volume.

Next year also a new RX may come out, and if it builds solidly upon the winning attributes of the past generations it sould do very well for Lexus. If the IS convertible/coupe comes out that would be a potent weapon for that niche market. These could help Lexus better combat the Germans.

Another aspect is value. Lexus leads in sales but runs mid-pack when it comes to $$$ sold. The German price premium hinders their reach for volume sales and value, but allows them to collect more revenue. Profits however are another story. For both, Lexus is probably looking upmarket for a reason--LF-A included.

In any case I would approach things with a more equal opportunity view, in that the luxury market is growing but it's not all of a sudden going to shoot up, especially with gas prices and other concerns. Growth will come with internal effects and one's gain does not necessarily come at the expense of the other, but it could. In any case it is an interesting time to watch the luxury market. I expect Lexus to continue to perform strongly, and I expect its top competition to perform well also.

Last edited by encore888; 07-12-07 at 08:39 PM.
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Old 07-12-07, 08:14 PM
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I did not know that Lexus had that healthy of a margin. For some reason, I thought BMW was at about 300,000 units and MB was just behind them.

Thanks for the numbers, and good post
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Old 06-15-09, 01:47 PM
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It's looking like the tides are turning, as BMW is about 4,000 units ahead at the half-year mark.

BMW on track to outsell Lexus
06/03/2009, 12:49 PMBy Andrew Ganz

BMW’s year-to-date sales, for the first five months of the year, have exceeded rival Lexus‘ sales for the first time this decade, meaning the German automaker is on track to be the best-selling premium import brand in the United States. BMW’s sales are down 30.5 percent, but that’s still better than the 37.5 percent drop Lexus has seen.

BMW’s year-to-date sales were 76,819 vehicles at the end of last month, while Lexus sold 73,168 cars. BMW hasn’t been the top-selling premium brand in the U.S. since 1997. Lexus has held that title since 2000.

Fellow German Mercedes-Benz hasn’t seen as big of a drop in demand as Lexus, either. The German brand’s sales are down 29.9 percent to 69,933 so far this year.
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Old 06-15-09, 02:04 PM
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Don't forget the fact that Lexus' top selling vehicle, the RX, is fully redesigned and gaining a lot of praise and popularity.

Not to mention a new entry-level hybrid that people will desire when fuel prices rise during the summer months.
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Old 06-15-09, 02:08 PM
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With the number of models and the kind of incentives BMW is offering, they ought to outsell Lexus BY A LARGER MARGIN...

Also, it'll be interesting to see how the HS250h is going to effect the other two entry-level models (ES and IS) in terms of sales. If the other two sales remain steady when the HS goes on sale then BMW better watch out.
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Old 06-15-09, 02:14 PM
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Both take completely different approaches to sales. Lexus tries to sell the car, BMW tries to sell a lease. It shows consumers want two different things for whatever reasons.

BMW has a new Z4 and 7 series. They have had their class leading with Infiniti lease/APR rates.
Lexus has a new HS, RX 450h and IS-C coming. Lexus is always very strong in December due to the "December to Remember" event.

I totally see BMW doing whatever it takes to beat Lexus this year. Expect even better deals for those interested in a BMW as the year ends.

Lexus has stated being #1 in sales does not matter but I can't see them just letting the crown go without a fight.

We shall see, its a good race!

Dark-Horse is Mercedes, with the new E-class arriving and the GLK has been selling strong. If the C-class can get back a couple of better months and the other vehicles hold, they might sneak in at #1.

BMW, Benz, Lexus.....
 


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