Who Will be the Future Premium Market Leaders
11-07-07, 04:00 PM
#1
Lead Lap
Thread Starter
Who Will be the Future Premium Market Leaders
Please click on link to see the #s in proper easy-to-read tables
Math Madness: Who Will be the Premium Market Leaders in 20190 & 2030?
If you read the press and take it verbatim you might think Lexus is the undisputed luxury car leader, then and then the very next day BMW may be claiming to rule the world. But lets lets not forget Audi in the wings telling you by the next millennium that they will be the leader of the segment.
Who do you believe, and what is hype? Even though we consider ourselves an equal opportunity website there is no doubt AutoSpies can be divvied into two camps pretty easily, the Pacific Rim enthusiasts on one side the Germanic European fan boys on the other. Each touting who rules the luxury roost. Never mind there are other brands out there (Cadillac, Jaguar, etc) we always seems to congregate in these two camps when it comes to who is the best. So for the purpose of discussion we will limit our scope to these two competent factions of the enthusiast fan base.
Lets start out with the truths as we know it. Of the main players in the Pacific Rim camp we have primarily 3 Lexus, Infiniti and Acura each with a different flavor and fan appeal. On the European front we are represented by Mercedes Benz, BMW, Audi, and Porsche. All worthy players in their own right.
So what does the battlefield look like?
You would have to be living under a rock to not know that Lexus will lead the way here for 2007. Selling 322,434 cars last year and a by my projections they will yield around 335,976 for 2007, they are quite impressive. But if you take a look you will see that BMW is trailing but not really that far behind. With additional models coming in 2008 and beyond this might take them over the top for 2008.
For those of you are wondering, wow I got my 2007 projections. I simply took the growth rate so far for this year and factored it into last year’s sales. A fair shot for all.
Overall Sales
2006
2007 *
Lexus
322,434
335,976
Acura
201,223
182,368
Infiniti
121,146
128,742
BMW
274,432
298,033
Mercedes
248,080
255,026
Audi
90,116
99,128
Porsche
34,227
34,672
Total
1,291,658
1,333,945
Let’s look at market share.
Using 2006 sales data we can see to no one’s surprise the Lexus also leads the way here as well. Using superior marketing and targeting the soft underbelly of the American buyer they have carved out an impressive share of the market. Of the combined total of almost 1.3 million cars sold last year by these seven brands, Lexus sold almost ¼ of the entire total. In this case quantity again is a factor. .Projecting out 2007 sales to the end of the year, shows this margin increases to just over 25% for the year. Taking bigger and bigger slices each year clearly seems to be the strategy. As you can see from below BMW is still the big gun for the European community.
Share Percentage
2006
2007
Lexus
24.92%
25.15%
Acura
15.55%
13.65%
Infiniti
9.36%
9.64%
BMW
21.21%
22.31%
Mercedes
19.18%
19.09%
Audi
6.97%
7.42%
Porsche
2.65%
2.60%
How about Sales Growth?
Another way to reveal trends is to look at sales growth. Who is doing the best job at maximizing the gain in sales over last year? The first thing you must do is take the figures and strip out the entire “Daily Sales Rate” mambo jumbo some manufacturers use and get to a real figure. How many more cars did I sell this year than last is the rule here? Using a raw percentage format you can see who did well last year and who the leaders are for 2007.
Now before any of you get excited, you have to remember that the bigger you get, the harder it is to maintain momentum. So Audi isn’t over taking Lexus anytime soon. But you can correctly argue that they are on a roll for them. In the below table you see that while Lexus maintains a respectable growth rate of just over 4% for 2007 BMW who has similar sales is gaining rapidly at almost double the rate. Is there a power shift on the horizon?
Sales Growth Rate
2006
2007
Lexus
6.45%
4.20%
Acura
-4.00%
-9.37%
Infiniti
-11.18%
6.27%
Audi
8.49%
10.00%
BMW
3.09%
8.60%
Mercedes
10.54%
2.80%
Porsche
7.18%
1.30%
Is the big picture a shrinking pie?
If you took these seven manufacturers and mapped them back to 2000 you may see an unsettling trend. While the premium market is still growing, it is showing signs of slowing. Perhaps reaching a saturation point in the US market? In the year 2000 we saw the seven add sales of 120,022 vehicles combined, but in 2001 that total had dropped by over 60% of that to a mere 40,843 vehicles. While it rebounded again two years later the economic downturn again took its toll in 2005 and plummeted again. It has yet to recover.
But who is benefiting how is just maintaining and who are the losers? As you can from above Acura has bore the brunt of this latest downturn down almost 10% after an already soft 2005 sales year. By the end of 2007 they will be down over 27,000 vehicles compared to 2005! While Infiniti is showing an increase for this year, it is also against a rather dismal 2006. So much so, that even at the respectable growth rate of over 6% rate it won’t even reach 2004 sales levels for 2007.
Annual Sales Gain By Units
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Lexus
20,147
17,946
10,126
25,646
28,172
14,968
19,539
13,542
BMW
34,453
23,704
18,905
8,557
19,490
6,121
8,232
23,601
Mercedes
16,177
1,024
6,587
5,492
2,893
2,811
23,659
6,946
Audi
14,413
2,911
2,443
695
-8,504
5,149
7,050
9,012
Acura
24,675
27,788
-4,917
5,366
28,001
10,691
-8,387
-18,855
Infiniti
5,714
-6,986
16,546
30,744
12,332
5,414
-15,255
7,596
Porsche
4,442
-2,437
5,916
-608
3,057
460
2,294
445
Total
120,022
40,843
78,715
47,477
113,858
45,615
37,133
42,288
Who is picking up the pieces?
If you look at it for the last two years Lexus is continually rising, but their progress is remarkably close to the losses that the other two Pacific Rim companies are posting. Is Lexus cobbling up the other two sales? I doubt it, but it does sound like a good movie story line. Anyway you look at it though, there is no doubt the Lexus engine is slowing from almost 11% just a few years ago to just over 4% for 2007. Interesting.
This slowdown would be easy to discount because of the size of Lexus, if it weren’t for the acceleration of BMW from just under 3% annually in 2006 to over 8.5% for 2007. This trend may show signs of continuing as BMW plans an onslaught of new models by 2012 almost twice those projected by Lexus for the same time period.
But who is winning?
If we were to pit these giants against each other, we would see these 4 Europeans claimed over 54% of the lions share of sales for the group in 2001. But the Pacific Rim Godzilla’s had whittled it way to just under 49% in 2004. This might have been a sad story if it wasn’t for the tenacity of the German 4. If the trend continues for the next 2 months then by the end of 2007 these 4 premium companies will have reversed the loss in market share and will have reclaimed the market with over 51% of the share in just two years. The Europeans are not out just quite yet now are they?
So now for a little fun.
Predicting the future is a risky business. While it might be easy for us to predict the short term, the long term is much more of a challenge. Well as we all know, I am not one to shy away from a challenge, so lets see what the short term holds for these 7 manufactures and then look further down the road.
As we all know, nothing moves fast in the corporate world, economic hardships and corporate policies take a few years to take hold and bear fruit. With that in mind, if we take our current sales gain percentages for this year and apply them to the next few years we might get a glimpse into the near future. Taking the percent of gain so far for this year, we can take a pretty close look 2007 will pan out as. We can also take these numbers and if they hold true see what 2010 might look like as well.
2007 will end like last year with Lexus on top, BMW in second and Mercedes in third. But if we apply the current growth rates and pan forward to 2010, we see the BMW’s acceleration will move it past Lexus to take the number one spot. Now this may seem to be a bit far fetched for some of us to believe. It may not be that unreasonable due to the fact that BMW is not that far behind, and they plan to release almost double the new models of Lexus by 2010.
Sounds pretty interesting to me. But what does the long term hold? Lets stretch out the scenario for another 20 years and see what happens? In this case BMW has stretched its lead, and approaching 2 million units for 2030. Primarily due to slower growth Lexus sits at 887,619 unit and actually was passed by of all people Audi! Unlikely? Yes, but it sure shows that you are never too far behind given enough time. In this case 23 years.
% Increase
2007
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Lexus
4.20%
335,976
380,112
466,928
573,573
704,575
865,498
BMW
8.60%
298,033
381,728
576,638
871,068
1,315,835
1,987,699
Mercedes
2.80%
255,026
277,054
318,075
365,170
419,238
481,312
Audi
10.00%
99,128
131,939
212,489
342,215
551,141
887,619
Acura
-9.37%
182,368
135,758
83,009
50,756
31,035
18,976
Infiniti
6.27%
128,742
154,508
209,414
283,830
384,691
521,393
Porsche
1.30%
34,672
36,042
38,446
41,011
43,747
46,665
So now after seeing the scenarios and the trends who do you think will be on top in 2010 and the future and why? I gave my picks no matter how far fetched they may be. I always root for the underdog
Math Madness: Who Will be the Premium Market Leaders in 20190 & 2030?
If you read the press and take it verbatim you might think Lexus is the undisputed luxury car leader, then and then the very next day BMW may be claiming to rule the world. But lets lets not forget Audi in the wings telling you by the next millennium that they will be the leader of the segment.
Who do you believe, and what is hype? Even though we consider ourselves an equal opportunity website there is no doubt AutoSpies can be divvied into two camps pretty easily, the Pacific Rim enthusiasts on one side the Germanic European fan boys on the other. Each touting who rules the luxury roost. Never mind there are other brands out there (Cadillac, Jaguar, etc) we always seems to congregate in these two camps when it comes to who is the best. So for the purpose of discussion we will limit our scope to these two competent factions of the enthusiast fan base.
Lets start out with the truths as we know it. Of the main players in the Pacific Rim camp we have primarily 3 Lexus, Infiniti and Acura each with a different flavor and fan appeal. On the European front we are represented by Mercedes Benz, BMW, Audi, and Porsche. All worthy players in their own right.
So what does the battlefield look like?
You would have to be living under a rock to not know that Lexus will lead the way here for 2007. Selling 322,434 cars last year and a by my projections they will yield around 335,976 for 2007, they are quite impressive. But if you take a look you will see that BMW is trailing but not really that far behind. With additional models coming in 2008 and beyond this might take them over the top for 2008.
For those of you are wondering, wow I got my 2007 projections. I simply took the growth rate so far for this year and factored it into last year’s sales. A fair shot for all.
Overall Sales
2006
2007 *
Lexus
322,434
335,976
Acura
201,223
182,368
Infiniti
121,146
128,742
BMW
274,432
298,033
Mercedes
248,080
255,026
Audi
90,116
99,128
Porsche
34,227
34,672
Total
1,291,658
1,333,945
Let’s look at market share.
Using 2006 sales data we can see to no one’s surprise the Lexus also leads the way here as well. Using superior marketing and targeting the soft underbelly of the American buyer they have carved out an impressive share of the market. Of the combined total of almost 1.3 million cars sold last year by these seven brands, Lexus sold almost ¼ of the entire total. In this case quantity again is a factor. .Projecting out 2007 sales to the end of the year, shows this margin increases to just over 25% for the year. Taking bigger and bigger slices each year clearly seems to be the strategy. As you can see from below BMW is still the big gun for the European community.
Share Percentage
2006
2007
Lexus
24.92%
25.15%
Acura
15.55%
13.65%
Infiniti
9.36%
9.64%
BMW
21.21%
22.31%
Mercedes
19.18%
19.09%
Audi
6.97%
7.42%
Porsche
2.65%
2.60%
How about Sales Growth?
Another way to reveal trends is to look at sales growth. Who is doing the best job at maximizing the gain in sales over last year? The first thing you must do is take the figures and strip out the entire “Daily Sales Rate” mambo jumbo some manufacturers use and get to a real figure. How many more cars did I sell this year than last is the rule here? Using a raw percentage format you can see who did well last year and who the leaders are for 2007.
Now before any of you get excited, you have to remember that the bigger you get, the harder it is to maintain momentum. So Audi isn’t over taking Lexus anytime soon. But you can correctly argue that they are on a roll for them. In the below table you see that while Lexus maintains a respectable growth rate of just over 4% for 2007 BMW who has similar sales is gaining rapidly at almost double the rate. Is there a power shift on the horizon?
Sales Growth Rate
2006
2007
Lexus
6.45%
4.20%
Acura
-4.00%
-9.37%
Infiniti
-11.18%
6.27%
Audi
8.49%
10.00%
BMW
3.09%
8.60%
Mercedes
10.54%
2.80%
Porsche
7.18%
1.30%
Is the big picture a shrinking pie?
If you took these seven manufacturers and mapped them back to 2000 you may see an unsettling trend. While the premium market is still growing, it is showing signs of slowing. Perhaps reaching a saturation point in the US market? In the year 2000 we saw the seven add sales of 120,022 vehicles combined, but in 2001 that total had dropped by over 60% of that to a mere 40,843 vehicles. While it rebounded again two years later the economic downturn again took its toll in 2005 and plummeted again. It has yet to recover.
But who is benefiting how is just maintaining and who are the losers? As you can from above Acura has bore the brunt of this latest downturn down almost 10% after an already soft 2005 sales year. By the end of 2007 they will be down over 27,000 vehicles compared to 2005! While Infiniti is showing an increase for this year, it is also against a rather dismal 2006. So much so, that even at the respectable growth rate of over 6% rate it won’t even reach 2004 sales levels for 2007.
Annual Sales Gain By Units
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Lexus
20,147
17,946
10,126
25,646
28,172
14,968
19,539
13,542
BMW
34,453
23,704
18,905
8,557
19,490
6,121
8,232
23,601
Mercedes
16,177
1,024
6,587
5,492
2,893
2,811
23,659
6,946
Audi
14,413
2,911
2,443
695
-8,504
5,149
7,050
9,012
Acura
24,675
27,788
-4,917
5,366
28,001
10,691
-8,387
-18,855
Infiniti
5,714
-6,986
16,546
30,744
12,332
5,414
-15,255
7,596
Porsche
4,442
-2,437
5,916
-608
3,057
460
2,294
445
Total
120,022
40,843
78,715
47,477
113,858
45,615
37,133
42,288
Who is picking up the pieces?
If you look at it for the last two years Lexus is continually rising, but their progress is remarkably close to the losses that the other two Pacific Rim companies are posting. Is Lexus cobbling up the other two sales? I doubt it, but it does sound like a good movie story line. Anyway you look at it though, there is no doubt the Lexus engine is slowing from almost 11% just a few years ago to just over 4% for 2007. Interesting.
This slowdown would be easy to discount because of the size of Lexus, if it weren’t for the acceleration of BMW from just under 3% annually in 2006 to over 8.5% for 2007. This trend may show signs of continuing as BMW plans an onslaught of new models by 2012 almost twice those projected by Lexus for the same time period.
But who is winning?
If we were to pit these giants against each other, we would see these 4 Europeans claimed over 54% of the lions share of sales for the group in 2001. But the Pacific Rim Godzilla’s had whittled it way to just under 49% in 2004. This might have been a sad story if it wasn’t for the tenacity of the German 4. If the trend continues for the next 2 months then by the end of 2007 these 4 premium companies will have reversed the loss in market share and will have reclaimed the market with over 51% of the share in just two years. The Europeans are not out just quite yet now are they?
So now for a little fun.
Predicting the future is a risky business. While it might be easy for us to predict the short term, the long term is much more of a challenge. Well as we all know, I am not one to shy away from a challenge, so lets see what the short term holds for these 7 manufactures and then look further down the road.
As we all know, nothing moves fast in the corporate world, economic hardships and corporate policies take a few years to take hold and bear fruit. With that in mind, if we take our current sales gain percentages for this year and apply them to the next few years we might get a glimpse into the near future. Taking the percent of gain so far for this year, we can take a pretty close look 2007 will pan out as. We can also take these numbers and if they hold true see what 2010 might look like as well.
2007 will end like last year with Lexus on top, BMW in second and Mercedes in third. But if we apply the current growth rates and pan forward to 2010, we see the BMW’s acceleration will move it past Lexus to take the number one spot. Now this may seem to be a bit far fetched for some of us to believe. It may not be that unreasonable due to the fact that BMW is not that far behind, and they plan to release almost double the new models of Lexus by 2010.
Sounds pretty interesting to me. But what does the long term hold? Lets stretch out the scenario for another 20 years and see what happens? In this case BMW has stretched its lead, and approaching 2 million units for 2030. Primarily due to slower growth Lexus sits at 887,619 unit and actually was passed by of all people Audi! Unlikely? Yes, but it sure shows that you are never too far behind given enough time. In this case 23 years.
% Increase
2007
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Lexus
4.20%
335,976
380,112
466,928
573,573
704,575
865,498
BMW
8.60%
298,033
381,728
576,638
871,068
1,315,835
1,987,699
Mercedes
2.80%
255,026
277,054
318,075
365,170
419,238
481,312
Audi
10.00%
99,128
131,939
212,489
342,215
551,141
887,619
Acura
-9.37%
182,368
135,758
83,009
50,756
31,035
18,976
Infiniti
6.27%
128,742
154,508
209,414
283,830
384,691
521,393
Porsche
1.30%
34,672
36,042
38,446
41,011
43,747
46,665
So now after seeing the scenarios and the trends who do you think will be on top in 2010 and the future and why? I gave my picks no matter how far fetched they may be. I always root for the underdog
11-07-07, 04:42 PM
#2
IMO based on sales, prestige, customer satisfaction, etc. the future top luxury companies will be (in no particular order):
Lexus- has always done well and is going to be increasing it's hybrid range, "F" cars, GT-F will be the halo vehicle, and continued world wide expansion with presence on an international level.
Mercedes-Benz - the classic icon isn't going anywhere soon despite continued quality problems. I do expect things to improve at the Mercedes camp though, and of course they have one of the strongest product lines in this segment
BMW- Another stalwart like Mercedes, BMW is always going to produce cars that people want. Increased interest in hydrogen and hybrid technology as well as chasing new niches (if foolishly) and another super strong lineup that continues to benchmark many categories.
Audi- The German new kid on the block has done surprisingly well already and over the next few years will be rolling out the new A4, the recent A5, as well as an A6, RS6, R10, A8, Q5 and various other RS models. Audi is really coming into their own and has the resources of VW to finance and create new models and segments.
Infiniti- Five years ago I would have laughed, but Infiniti really has their game together and will be the rising star of these five. Their lineup is limited but it is also very solid and they are looking to fill the holes in their arsenal. The G, G Coupe, and M are respectively some of the top sedans in their segments all things considered, the new EX has been getting positive reviews and there are also plans for the brand new FX, Q, QX, and possibly a GTR variant. IMO, it is also only a matter of time until they offer an AMG/M/RS/F fighter considering that they are the Japanese performance company.
How about the rest? In my opinion, Jaguar is simply too far gone to make any shattering impact in the next few years. The company is up for sale and aside from the low volume XK, has everything bet on the new XF sedan. Their lineup, technology, resources, and future are all too limited.
Cadillac, while having made great strides with the new CTS, is also more than a few years away from being able to upset the other five. GM does not have the cash or resources to create a lineup worthy or capable of competing car for car with Lexus, Mercedes, or the others. The new CTS is, again, a great car and a big step but consider the STS, SRX and Escalade. The company needs something smaller than the CTS, the STS needs a major revamp and should perhaps be considered an LS/S/7 competitor considering the size of it's little brother. Crossover SUVs are uber hot and theirs has only done mediocre and there are no plans for another. The XLR gets easily forgotten in the array of others that cost about the same or even less, and are far more compelling buys. Sales and interest in V series cars has also been lackluster, though perhaps the new CTS-V will be set to change that.
Acura's problem is Honda. The company has no easy access to an engine over six cylinders, or even a RWD platform. They are making good use of what they have available, but there is only so much that you can do with a FWD biased platform and six cylinders. TL and RL need to be revamped as RWD, with V8s optional or standard. A sedan larger than the RL should be included to compete with the S and LS, a coupe and a sports car wouldn't hurt either. Acura has a lot of potential and talent, and only limited resources.
My .02.
Lexus- has always done well and is going to be increasing it's hybrid range, "F" cars, GT-F will be the halo vehicle, and continued world wide expansion with presence on an international level.
Mercedes-Benz - the classic icon isn't going anywhere soon despite continued quality problems. I do expect things to improve at the Mercedes camp though, and of course they have one of the strongest product lines in this segment
BMW- Another stalwart like Mercedes, BMW is always going to produce cars that people want. Increased interest in hydrogen and hybrid technology as well as chasing new niches (if foolishly) and another super strong lineup that continues to benchmark many categories.
Audi- The German new kid on the block has done surprisingly well already and over the next few years will be rolling out the new A4, the recent A5, as well as an A6, RS6, R10, A8, Q5 and various other RS models. Audi is really coming into their own and has the resources of VW to finance and create new models and segments.
Infiniti- Five years ago I would have laughed, but Infiniti really has their game together and will be the rising star of these five. Their lineup is limited but it is also very solid and they are looking to fill the holes in their arsenal. The G, G Coupe, and M are respectively some of the top sedans in their segments all things considered, the new EX has been getting positive reviews and there are also plans for the brand new FX, Q, QX, and possibly a GTR variant. IMO, it is also only a matter of time until they offer an AMG/M/RS/F fighter considering that they are the Japanese performance company.
How about the rest? In my opinion, Jaguar is simply too far gone to make any shattering impact in the next few years. The company is up for sale and aside from the low volume XK, has everything bet on the new XF sedan. Their lineup, technology, resources, and future are all too limited.
Cadillac, while having made great strides with the new CTS, is also more than a few years away from being able to upset the other five. GM does not have the cash or resources to create a lineup worthy or capable of competing car for car with Lexus, Mercedes, or the others. The new CTS is, again, a great car and a big step but consider the STS, SRX and Escalade. The company needs something smaller than the CTS, the STS needs a major revamp and should perhaps be considered an LS/S/7 competitor considering the size of it's little brother. Crossover SUVs are uber hot and theirs has only done mediocre and there are no plans for another. The XLR gets easily forgotten in the array of others that cost about the same or even less, and are far more compelling buys. Sales and interest in V series cars has also been lackluster, though perhaps the new CTS-V will be set to change that.
Acura's problem is Honda. The company has no easy access to an engine over six cylinders, or even a RWD platform. They are making good use of what they have available, but there is only so much that you can do with a FWD biased platform and six cylinders. TL and RL need to be revamped as RWD, with V8s optional or standard. A sedan larger than the RL should be included to compete with the S and LS, a coupe and a sports car wouldn't hurt either. Acura has a lot of potential and talent, and only limited resources.
My .02.
11-07-07, 06:20 PM
#3
Fascinating analyses, guys!
Lexus - I think Lexus will remain #1 in the US for the near future. Numerically speaking, BMW is a serious threat, what with their new product launches and all. Which is why there has been a "BMW-ization' at Lexus in recent years, to some extent. I wonder whether Lexus will enter the 1-series/A1 etc. market, and in the US I hope not. If that means surrendering the #1 US ranking, then so be it.
There just are a lot of issues with being so large; only Cadillac previously had such a giant volume and look what happened to them. Not to mention, Lexus has less US dealerships than its rivals. Growing a larger and larger customer base can put a serious strain on service facilities. Moreover, there is the issue of valuation. By MSRPs, Lexus is midpack (when in raw volume it is tops). Lexus is starting to increase on that front however. Which is more important? Volume or $$$? Before Lexus, Acura with its Legend, Integra lineup was making huge volumes on a rather cheap luxury product.
In the end I think Lexus is looking towards an international focus, and with that comes hopefully an expanded lineup, hopefully with a new SC, new IS convertible/coupe, new special hybrid only model, and a new expanded RX line. These vehicles would be great abroad and in the US. Not to mention halo vehicles like the LF-A, the F-Sport line, etc. Of course Lexus is so secretive it's hard to say what they're doing next.
BMW - continuing to build on its traditional strengths in performance leadership. The 1-series will be pretty successful in my view, and there is a real chance that BMW will surge ahead. The 3-series remains an industry staple, a massive anchor to the BMW lineup with all its different submodels; and the 5 does well also. However, as recently reported, the costs of their maintenance program and incentives are challenges. Nonetheless they are in a strong position to continue ahead globally.
Mercedes-Benz - hopefully the worst of the quality and reliability gremlins are behind them, and with a new C-Class and (as said before) excellent and complete lineup (save a few excessive misfires) they will continue to be strong as the first and most prestigious of the mainstream luxury makes. The strength of S-Class sales, while about a third less than the LS Series, are quite impressive indeed.
I was going to do the rest but couldn't find the Cadillac numbers, I was searching for awhile but g2g.
Lexus - I think Lexus will remain #1 in the US for the near future. Numerically speaking, BMW is a serious threat, what with their new product launches and all. Which is why there has been a "BMW-ization' at Lexus in recent years, to some extent. I wonder whether Lexus will enter the 1-series/A1 etc. market, and in the US I hope not. If that means surrendering the #1 US ranking, then so be it.
There just are a lot of issues with being so large; only Cadillac previously had such a giant volume and look what happened to them. Not to mention, Lexus has less US dealerships than its rivals. Growing a larger and larger customer base can put a serious strain on service facilities. Moreover, there is the issue of valuation. By MSRPs, Lexus is midpack (when in raw volume it is tops). Lexus is starting to increase on that front however. Which is more important? Volume or $$$? Before Lexus, Acura with its Legend, Integra lineup was making huge volumes on a rather cheap luxury product.
In the end I think Lexus is looking towards an international focus, and with that comes hopefully an expanded lineup, hopefully with a new SC, new IS convertible/coupe, new special hybrid only model, and a new expanded RX line. These vehicles would be great abroad and in the US. Not to mention halo vehicles like the LF-A, the F-Sport line, etc. Of course Lexus is so secretive it's hard to say what they're doing next.
BMW - continuing to build on its traditional strengths in performance leadership. The 1-series will be pretty successful in my view, and there is a real chance that BMW will surge ahead. The 3-series remains an industry staple, a massive anchor to the BMW lineup with all its different submodels; and the 5 does well also. However, as recently reported, the costs of their maintenance program and incentives are challenges. Nonetheless they are in a strong position to continue ahead globally.
Mercedes-Benz - hopefully the worst of the quality and reliability gremlins are behind them, and with a new C-Class and (as said before) excellent and complete lineup (save a few excessive misfires) they will continue to be strong as the first and most prestigious of the mainstream luxury makes. The strength of S-Class sales, while about a third less than the LS Series, are quite impressive indeed.
I was going to do the rest but couldn't find the Cadillac numbers, I was searching for awhile but g2g.
11-07-07, 06:30 PM
#4
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Posts: n/a
Funny, that story says what I have said all along. My 2 quick summary, no one is toppling BMW, Benz or Lexus. Caddy MAY join them on sales, but their image will always be a step behind.
Everyone else in America will remain where they are. There simply is not enough room anymore and no one is getting caught with the pants down anymore.
Worldwide, if Lexus continues sales gains in Europe and continues to grow elsewhere (Asia, Russia etc), expect them to hit the 1 million mark in the next 20 years.
Lets see here.
Lexus-Unheard of basically 350,000 luxury vehicles sold. Lets understand something here. The #1 selling import brand was Benz in 1989 with about 90,000 units. Wow.
Lets understand something else. Lexus is 4th worldwide with nearly 500,000 vehicles sold. With only ONE diesel 4 cylinder, no other 4 cylinders. The Germans have TONS of low priced (sub 30k) cars in America and Europe (especially Europe). While I would not like a Lex Hatch, say it comes to Europe and Lexus sells sub 30k cars. Well, can you say big sales jump.
Lexus now offers more sport (F) and the same luxury (LS). With them no jumping oveer the $100,000 mark with success, well the skies are still the limit.
Again, Lexus has a VERY VERY VERY limited lineup compared to the Germans (even as Lexus lineup has grown in recent years). Imagine if Lexus had 40 versions of the IS (there are 40 version of the 3 in Europe), 10 version of the GS, etc.
Everyone else in America will remain where they are. There simply is not enough room anymore and no one is getting caught with the pants down anymore.
Worldwide, if Lexus continues sales gains in Europe and continues to grow elsewhere (Asia, Russia etc), expect them to hit the 1 million mark in the next 20 years.
Lets see here.
Lexus-Unheard of basically 350,000 luxury vehicles sold. Lets understand something here. The #1 selling import brand was Benz in 1989 with about 90,000 units. Wow.
Lets understand something else. Lexus is 4th worldwide with nearly 500,000 vehicles sold. With only ONE diesel 4 cylinder, no other 4 cylinders. The Germans have TONS of low priced (sub 30k) cars in America and Europe (especially Europe). While I would not like a Lex Hatch, say it comes to Europe and Lexus sells sub 30k cars. Well, can you say big sales jump.
Lexus now offers more sport (F) and the same luxury (LS). With them no jumping oveer the $100,000 mark with success, well the skies are still the limit.
Again, Lexus has a VERY VERY VERY limited lineup compared to the Germans (even as Lexus lineup has grown in recent years). Imagine if Lexus had 40 versions of the IS (there are 40 version of the 3 in Europe), 10 version of the GS, etc.
11-07-07, 06:34 PM
#5
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Posts: n/a
That wasn't quick.
Lets understand something. Benz and BMW and Audi WORLDWIDE are going to continue to go up. Period. There are enough people that don't care if they cost twice as much or if their quality is last. They will continue to sell. PERIOD. WIth them expanding with cross-overs, more SUVs, more small cars, sales will be fine.
As for America, BMW is a great threat to Lexus sales wise as they continue to sell 11k 3's a month and they are expanding with X cars and crossovers. Their image is top notch here. BMW is SMART.
Benz in America, again fine, but they still rely on image more than anything and America has smartened up some to it. Expect the C-class to fall like a brick in a year. They better hope their SUVs bring up the rear. The R-class was a huge failure.
Audi (my fav German) is coming. Sales will top 100k this year. They are on Infiniti's heels soon. Their image is improving. Their products are improving. I expect the next A8 to provide a HUGE halo, like how the R8 is helping tons. Expect the next "S" cars to be much more powerful. THey also have a small SUV coming.
Lets understand something. Benz and BMW and Audi WORLDWIDE are going to continue to go up. Period. There are enough people that don't care if they cost twice as much or if their quality is last. They will continue to sell. PERIOD. WIth them expanding with cross-overs, more SUVs, more small cars, sales will be fine.
As for America, BMW is a great threat to Lexus sales wise as they continue to sell 11k 3's a month and they are expanding with X cars and crossovers. Their image is top notch here. BMW is SMART.
Benz in America, again fine, but they still rely on image more than anything and America has smartened up some to it. Expect the C-class to fall like a brick in a year. They better hope their SUVs bring up the rear. The R-class was a huge failure.
Audi (my fav German) is coming. Sales will top 100k this year. They are on Infiniti's heels soon. Their image is improving. Their products are improving. I expect the next A8 to provide a HUGE halo, like how the R8 is helping tons. Expect the next "S" cars to be much more powerful. THey also have a small SUV coming.
11-07-07, 06:37 PM
#6
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Posts: n/a
Caddy
They have an issue with image. Tons of people seem to love it. Tons are totally put off by it. Its a big issue. If their new products all come out like the CTS, WATCH OUT. Lets understand while internet mag thugz care about the Ring (though they have no idea where it is) most want a nice, big, comfy, luxurious, stylish Caddy.
The V-series will continue to improve. Now their MISTAKE will be dropping the DTS and merge with the STS. Bad move. Sadly though, in America, its about the "foreign" car. Caddy also needs to get its *** in the $100,000 segment. The XLR-V for $100,000 has been a dismal failure.
They have an issue with image. Tons of people seem to love it. Tons are totally put off by it. Its a big issue. If their new products all come out like the CTS, WATCH OUT. Lets understand while internet mag thugz care about the Ring (though they have no idea where it is) most want a nice, big, comfy, luxurious, stylish Caddy.
The V-series will continue to improve. Now their MISTAKE will be dropping the DTS and merge with the STS. Bad move. Sadly though, in America, its about the "foreign" car. Caddy also needs to get its *** in the $100,000 segment. The XLR-V for $100,000 has been a dismal failure.
11-07-07, 06:44 PM
#7
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Posts: n/a
Acura and Infiniti.
Acura will stay around 200,000 units. They will continue to be a niche brand. If the TL goes up in price, it might not do so well. The TSX too is a value car. The RD-X is a mistake. The RL is a joke. The MDX continues its great sales and great producer for the brand.
Their TRICK, if they WANT TO, if they WANT to, if they WANT to, is simple
-move the TSX up to where the TL is.
-move the TL to where the RL is
-move the RL to where the LS/7/S is
They have to do that soon, or they will FOREVER be the entry level brand. No RWD and no V-8 is inexcusable, unless they are HAPPY being where they are. Why will they continue to sell? Do you know how many people LOVE their Hondas?? They love them, loyal people. They move into Acuras. Then they jump ship to Lexus/BMW/Benz (and now even Infiniti). They have to stop that bleeding.
Infiniti, again, will be around 150,000 units, which is up, but they ARE adding a cute-ute, the EX. The G35/37 hasn't posted tremendous gains, and its all new. M35/45 sales are down. The FX is coming but I doubt its mainstream. The QX might be gone. No Q45 and no one outside of 10 fans care about it.
Now what could they do? If they want to be the Japanese BMW for real, and not turn into the Japanese Jeep, SLAP MANUALS IN EVERYTHING. The M35 should have it as the FX and EX 35. Truly make them different. They have shown promise, they need to continue to push.
Acura will stay around 200,000 units. They will continue to be a niche brand. If the TL goes up in price, it might not do so well. The TSX too is a value car. The RD-X is a mistake. The RL is a joke. The MDX continues its great sales and great producer for the brand.
Their TRICK, if they WANT TO, if they WANT to, if they WANT to, is simple
-move the TSX up to where the TL is.
-move the TL to where the RL is
-move the RL to where the LS/7/S is
They have to do that soon, or they will FOREVER be the entry level brand. No RWD and no V-8 is inexcusable, unless they are HAPPY being where they are. Why will they continue to sell? Do you know how many people LOVE their Hondas?? They love them, loyal people. They move into Acuras. Then they jump ship to Lexus/BMW/Benz (and now even Infiniti). They have to stop that bleeding.
Infiniti, again, will be around 150,000 units, which is up, but they ARE adding a cute-ute, the EX. The G35/37 hasn't posted tremendous gains, and its all new. M35/45 sales are down. The FX is coming but I doubt its mainstream. The QX might be gone. No Q45 and no one outside of 10 fans care about it.
Now what could they do? If they want to be the Japanese BMW for real, and not turn into the Japanese Jeep, SLAP MANUALS IN EVERYTHING. The M35 should have it as the FX and EX 35. Truly make them different. They have shown promise, they need to continue to push.
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11-07-07, 06:45 PM
#8
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Everyone else= no one really cares. Its the hard truth. I love them, Jag, new Volvos are much better, Lincoln is, well around, Saab, and others, well, they will continue to sell.
FYI, if the new XF Jag sedan flops (which I am telling you, it will), Jag, my beloved Jaguar, is gone.
FYI, if the new XF Jag sedan flops (which I am telling you, it will), Jag, my beloved Jaguar, is gone.
11-07-07, 06:58 PM
#9
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Posts: n/a
To be honest, its not about today. Let me show you
Its about these periods
Pre Lexus-1900-1989-German DOMINANCE (now you might say, well Acura was first but the Germans didn't even blink) and Arrogance.
Lexus-1989-1995-Germans caught with their pants down. Lexus out of nowhere, is a serious contender. Infiniti falters BUT the Q45 showed there was 2 serious top options. SC is a classic.
German says "oh yeah"-1995-2000-New E, New 5 are tremendous. They lower prices and increase content. They recognize Lexus is not there to be with them, but to destroy them. Sales rise. They plan to build in America and do. SUVs come.
Lexus has it together 1998-2002-New RX CREATES the car based luxury SUV.2GS is the first LExus to make people say "whoa". IS/LX/LS/SC all new
During this time, Acura is lost (what the hell is the RL), doesn't do much with the NSX, changes names and confuses everyone. WHen they realize they cannot compete head on, the ONE GREAT move they did, the loaded car, full price made in America for America Acuras, starting with the 1999 TL and even before that the CL.
Infiniti as we all know hadn't a damn clue and came around after Nissan got merged with Renault (credit Mr. Ghosen) not with the last gen Q45, but with the entry level G35.
Caddy and Audi wake the hell up too. Super improved products. Caddy moves to RWD. Audi goes after BMW with S and RS cars.
So now we have 2003-200today
Everyone is alive (except dumbass Jaguar, Lincoln) and up and aware what the other is doing. BMW, Benz, Lexus still have a clear plan. Audis and Caddy is less clear but much much better. Infiniti and Acura is less clear but much better.
And we have today. Where in 1997, you could easily say if it wasn't a BMW, Benz or Lexus, it was CRAP, you CANNOT say that today in 2007.
Most EVERY SINGLE luxury product is good or great!!
Oh joy to us buyers!!!
Its about these periods
Pre Lexus-1900-1989-German DOMINANCE (now you might say, well Acura was first but the Germans didn't even blink) and Arrogance.
Lexus-1989-1995-Germans caught with their pants down. Lexus out of nowhere, is a serious contender. Infiniti falters BUT the Q45 showed there was 2 serious top options. SC is a classic.
German says "oh yeah"-1995-2000-New E, New 5 are tremendous. They lower prices and increase content. They recognize Lexus is not there to be with them, but to destroy them. Sales rise. They plan to build in America and do. SUVs come.
Lexus has it together 1998-2002-New RX CREATES the car based luxury SUV.2GS is the first LExus to make people say "whoa". IS/LX/LS/SC all new
During this time, Acura is lost (what the hell is the RL), doesn't do much with the NSX, changes names and confuses everyone. WHen they realize they cannot compete head on, the ONE GREAT move they did, the loaded car, full price made in America for America Acuras, starting with the 1999 TL and even before that the CL.
Infiniti as we all know hadn't a damn clue and came around after Nissan got merged with Renault (credit Mr. Ghosen) not with the last gen Q45, but with the entry level G35.
Caddy and Audi wake the hell up too. Super improved products. Caddy moves to RWD. Audi goes after BMW with S and RS cars.
So now we have 2003-200today
Everyone is alive (except dumbass Jaguar, Lincoln) and up and aware what the other is doing. BMW, Benz, Lexus still have a clear plan. Audis and Caddy is less clear but much much better. Infiniti and Acura is less clear but much better.
And we have today. Where in 1997, you could easily say if it wasn't a BMW, Benz or Lexus, it was CRAP, you CANNOT say that today in 2007.
Most EVERY SINGLE luxury product is good or great!!
Oh joy to us buyers!!!
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