I like how when the new Civic struggled a bit out of the gate, people here were saying how it's because it's a crappy design, blah blah blah. But when the new Corolla struggles out of the gate, it's a production issue. Oh wait, I forgot, ANY Toyota model that struggles is a "production" issue.

 

Correct me if I am wrong but I don't think the complaining about the Civic was initially out the gate. It was months after and sales had dipped so we assumed it was demand.

 

the dsr is the right way to look at this data. Raw numbers mean little...how many are you selling every day you are open is more indicative of true sales. That's why 10K can be .2%

 

Um, the same thing definitely did NOT happen with the Camry model changeover. The new Camry came out in April 2006, and had monthly sales increases (vs the same month in the previous year) every month for at least the first 8 months.

 

We'll just have to agree to disagree then. As I said earlier, let us wait and see what direction Toyota quality goes in over the next few years. The truth will come out one way or another and facts will speak for themselves, whatever they will be.

As SICK said, people were criticizing the new Civic because sales went up for quite a while shortly after it was introduced, and THEN they dropped all of a sudden for a period of several months.

I agree with you in that it's the more accurate way of looking at the sales data, but personally I stick with raw volume numbers for the sake of simplicity. As it's often been the case in the past, using DSR instead of raw volume in discussions tends to lead to a lot of silly arguments and a lot of confusion. I use raw volumes to avoid all that as not everyone understands DSR .

On a volume basis, Camry sales were DOWN in April 2006:

http://pressroom.toyota.com/Releases...T2006050220151

Also Camry sales had a drop in July 2006, so your statement of "every month" is false.

Also let me remind you that factories ramped up Camry production very fast which partially resulted in those handful of quality issues ranging from the transmission problems, to fit and finish problems with early built Camry models.

Camry shipments in April and subsequent months were also not affected by bad weather, and Corolla shipments in February were.

With the Corolla, Toyota is ramping up production at factories more slowly in order to minimize quality issues.

 

LOL! All manufacturers report gains/losses on a daily selling basis. April 2006 had 1 less selling day than April 2005. So even though April 2006 had a whopping, drumroll, 200 units less than April 2005, everyone considers it an "increase" month due to the fewer selling days. Just look at Toyota's report itself:

Camry, April 2006: 40,203 (26 selling days)
Camry, April 2005: 40,435 (27 selling days)
= +2.2%

Camry, July 2006: 41,892 (25 selling days)
Camry, July 2005: 43,004 (26 selling days)
= +1.3%

So, nice try, but anyone with half a brain know that those are technically "up" months. Holy Toyota itself is reporting it as an "up" month.

There may very well be production issues with the new Corolla (-28% and -21%) and sales will no doubt rebound, but regardless, your statement that the "exact same thing happened with the new Camry" (as is now happening with the new Corolla) is simply untrue. So instead of coming up with ridiculous excuses, just admit you were wrong about the Camry and move on. It's okay to make mistakes sometimes. Really.

 

I admit I was wrong, and not the EXACT same thing happened with the Camry, but a similar thing happened.

You should also admit you were wrong when you said that the Camry had 8 straight months of sales increase when the 6th gen debuted in April 2006, as that's not true.

 

Um....

New Corolla
First month: -28.1%
Second month: -21.3%

New Camry
First month: +3.3%
Second month: +3.6%

Yeah, "a similar thing" happened all right.

Come on man, continuing to argue about this when everyone knows the real facts just negatively affects your credibility.

 

Um, there was nothing wrong with my statement. My definition of "sales increase" follows the industry (and Toyota's) standard, which is reported on a DSR basis. And following the industry standard, the new Camry had sales increases in at least the first 8 months following launch. I could care less how you "personally look at the numbers".

I stand by what I said.

 

As I've pointed out in the past, DSR is not the "right way" because there is no universal definition of a selling day! Do we take out Sundays? Yes, if you are in IL - no if you are in Texas (cause in Texas you can be open either Saturday OR Sunday but not both). Some states allow you to be open BOTH Saturday and Sunday and some states have other silly rules.

So now, exactly what is a selling day?

Hell, I'd argue that fewer cars are sold on a Monday then are sold on a Saturday or Sunday - so maybe we take out the Mondays?

 

But the fact remains that there are different number of selling days in the same month in different years. Neither methods are perfect ways to represent how strong the sales is in a given month, so make your own choice.

 

I agree on his take on means of reporting.

This month's figures have an error for IS showing a net gain compared to last year, when it is actually a loss, and that is just from casual review which should have been caught.

While the percentages listed have improved as to accuracy in these sales reports, a year ago they were very error prone and always favorably, and as above, still contain errors.

That no doubt indicates a person is intentionally going in to have altered the numbers, computers would not make such repeated errors.

 

Now wouldn't it be great if there was some sort of machine thingy that you could somehow teach which states were open what days so that you might be able to really look at the numbers and figure out if somebody is up or down? Have to use my computer to search and see if there is some machine thingy that you could actually teach, might be called program as a verb, to equalize all the data. Pretty sure the one or two Toyotas that are sold in Cali can be sold all seven days of the week so DSRs mean nothing here. Shame we didn't have more car sales in this state.

 

Hmmm, wouldn't that be cool - if the manufacturers knew which dealers were open on what specific days..... Then again we would need to change the terminology to "Actual Selling Days"

That might even help account for Leap Year!

BTW, I sure wish our dealers were open on Sunday - then again maybe I don't as I would probably have had more cars in my lifetime (nothing like a boring Sunday to go drive a car or two....).