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1SICKThought: Escalating gas and the state of the entry level car market

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Old 04-06-08, 11:18 AM
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LexFather
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Smile 1SICKThought: Escalating gas and the state of the entry level car market

Today is the first in what I will call "Week Speak". A weekly thread I will start in car chat about the automotive industry. MMarshall does a fantastic job with reviews so I think I can contribute more in this manner. I hope to have this done every Sunday for you to read (at work) on Monday

Well I updated my review of this car and I just love it.
https://www.clublexus.com/forums/sho...=208757&page=2

I'm averaging about 25 MPG which is a far cry from my GS 430. It really got me to thinking about this car.

When the IS debuted, gas was cheaper and Lexus forecasted wrong for 250/350 allocation. They were thinking 70/30 split 250/350 but it ended up with a 60/40 split 250/350.

Well we are well aware gas has continued to climb, to over $4 a gallon in some areas in CA, HI for example.

People bished and moaned about the 250s lack of power all over the internet, though they probably don't understand not everyone has a Ferrari F40 poster hanging in their home. The internet army of goons don't understand basic rational and mostly type before they think. All cars should have 300hp, be RWD and drive like a Ferrari.

If you look at the competition, only the Germans and Lexus offer a choice of engines in this class of cars (3/C/A4/IS).

2008 BMW 328i
Premium Gasoline
19
City

22
Combined

28
Hwy

2008 Lexus IS 250
Premium Gasoline
21
City

24
Combined

29
Hwy


2008 Audi A4
Premium Gasoline
18
City

21
Combined

27
Hwy


2008 Mercedes-Benz C300
Flex-fuel Vehicle
E85
13
City

15
Combined

19
Hwy


Premium
18
City

21
Combined

25
Hwy

(I didn't bother with 4 cylinder cars, the A4 has a turbo 4 that averages 21/30)

Looking at IS sales, they have maintained a solid level in sales about 4500k a month. My prediction is the IS will continue to sell well, if not better as the IS 250 will gain in popularity due to escalating gas prices. Now for the same price, you can get a much more powerful G35 or Acura TL but their MPG is worse than the cars above, the G35 might as well be a V-8.

The 2009 I-4 Acura TSX has 201 hp and has an identical rating as the IS 250, 21 City and 29 Hwy (that is just awful for an I-4).

I also predict those true luxury brands that offer options will make it better as prices escalate. Again, part of luxury is about choice, not shoving one way down peoples throats b/c you think that is luxury. I expect 128/328/I-4 A4/C 300 and IS 250 sales to rise and car companies may begin to slow down the seemingly endless HP war. With Acura, if you want better gas mileage out the TL, you have to go down to a TSX, which is a class below everything here. Acura has completely dropped the ball gaining an advantage here. They don't offer a V-8 but do not offer hybrids or the most fuel efficient cars in class. With Infiniti if you want better gas mileage out the G35, good luck, you have to jump ship. The new 7 speed won't help much as it is rumored gearing will be pretty much the same. Rumors of a car below the G35 have been heard in Europe, not sure will it be sold or arrive in America.

My prediction is also diesel simply will not take off in America. It still has a very negative cognition in American outside the diesel dozen diehards. Also diesel costs more than gas and a diesel car will cost more than an equivalent gas one so there really is no benefit. Acura is betting on a diesel TSX, it might get some VW converts and the usual Honda faithful but that is all. If you read the paper, truckers are up in arms over high diesel prices. Also, you cannot find diesel gas as abundant as regular gas. You better fill out before you leave the house!

Audi has said the A4 hybrid is not coming. Benz might bring back an I-4 C-class. BMW will do whatever they want.

I DO NOT see people interested in this class of cars jumping back to Accords/Camrys/Malibu's etc. Simply being, you get a more powerful loaded non luxury car, but you get slightly worse gas mileage, maybe the same in some cases and I don't think that is enough to convince someone to drop their luxury car aspirations.

Resale value of fuel efficient luxury cars will possibly rise as people look to RX 400hs and 325s etc to drive. Audi might enjoy this as they still offer and have offered an I-4 A4 for sometime now. BMW 318 anyone

Finally, Lexus will debut an all new hybrid car next January to be sold later that year. This will be a stand alone hybrid car and should cost between 32-45k. Their risk and gamble and forecasting that gas prices would escalate when everyone else had their collective heads up their asses will continue to pay off.

Case in point, the RX 400h hybrid sells around 1500 units a month. That means a old design that is fuel efficient, larger, higher class SUV between 45-50k MSRP sells as much as the new Infiniti EX/Acura RDX/BMW X3.

Lexus is on to something here. Just how in 1989, the perception was "luxury=unreliable", they will change the perception that "luxury= inefficient and a polluter".

This strategy is for America. For Lexus to succeed more in Europe, it WILL have to simply offer more diesel offerings and really make more hybrids across the car line. I would also like to see the next generation of Lexus diesels focus more of fuel efficiency and not on power. We now have "F" for that.
 
Old 04-06-08, 11:27 AM
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passnu2
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Very Nice write up!

I cant get over the "QUOTE" from projectdna....too funny
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Old 04-06-08, 11:31 AM
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Great Article

Love the quote about how BMW will do what it wants
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Old 04-06-08, 11:57 AM
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Nice job Mike, thanks for posting.

About the fuel effiency: I'm amazed at what my IS350 is capable of when I take it easy on the accelerator pedal (as difficult as it is to do...). Lately I've been driving ~60 mph when on the freeways, avoiding hard accelerations, and I got 28 MPG's for most of the tank. When combined with the infamous stop-and-go SoCal traffic, I wound up with 24 MPG's for the tank. Not bad for a 306 hp V6. Almost two years ago on our way back from EOS in San Francisco, our convoy did 60 mph almost the whole way back, and I got over 30 MPG on that trip (32.5, to be exact).

So there's a 60/40 split between the 250 and 350 now? Wow, that's surprising. Out of 10 ISx50's I see on the street in SoCal, inevitably 9 are 250's. Those 350's must be spread out in other parts of the country.

Javier
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Old 04-06-08, 12:00 PM
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Nice write up - actually may have to consider the "lexus prius" for the next car. Would like a GT-R but what you gonna do wih gas at $5 a gallon in 2011?
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Old 04-06-08, 01:06 PM
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tomede
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2011 We pay nearly $8 a gallon today in Europe .
Still running IS250
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Old 04-06-08, 06:27 PM
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Thank you everyone.

Javy, IS 350 is now seriously on the radar so I will be browsing MPG threads..
 
Old 04-06-08, 06:44 PM
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Personally I think Lexus made the right decision with the 250/350 configuration. My wallet wanted the 250, but I wanted the 350 more. In my area, 9/10 ISx50's are 250's as well...maybe 8/10.

My overall average is around 16.5 mpg (mostly just city driving). It can dip to 13-14 mpg if I use it in heavier traffic a lot (tank average). Highway driving is over 20 mpg, I think closer to 25 mpg.
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Old 04-06-08, 06:59 PM
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Interesting write up! I loved the way the IS drove, but because I live where there is snow, ice, rain, etc. I opted for the 250 awd. I would have loved a 350 awd though. Since I already own the RX400h I'm not hurting at the gas pump. As it turns out, my RX still gets better mileage than the IS and the RX takes regular gas, so I pick and choose when I drive the IS.
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Old 04-07-08, 06:30 AM
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GREAT write up!!! I can say I NEVER test drove the IS350 because I no longer need the extra HP, had it in previous cars... I wanted MPG and all-wheel drive. Do I miss the extra power, sure, who wouldn't? But with the winters here, can't utilize it as often BUT when needed I can still blow down some country roads when I want and still have the same big smile on my face!!

And much fewer trips to the gas station at 28+mpg!!!
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Old 04-12-08, 10:22 PM
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Moved here....will 4 cylinder German C/3/5 cars come back to America as prices escalate?
 
Old 04-12-08, 11:12 PM
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Originally Posted by meefer
Nice write up - actually may have to consider the "lexus prius" for the next car. Would like a GT-R but what you gonna do wih gas at $5 a gallon in 2011?
actually it should hit $5 this summer....
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Old 04-13-08, 01:00 AM
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Originally Posted by inxexisten
actually it should hit $5 this summer....
It better not or this country will fall into a depression. If you don't think these higher gas prices are going to effect everything we eat, buy, shop for, etc, think again. Everything is going up in price because these gas prices are out of control. Diesel is already over $4 a gallon, if it goes up much more than that, everything those big diesel trucks are carrying around with them are going to go up as well. If people who live on fixed incomes or live on a budget cannot afford to buy food anymore, what's going to happen?

*rant over*

Anyway, I really hope Toyota/Lexus continues in advancing this technology. I know they've mentioned in the past that eventually every Toyota product will come with a hybrid option and that day cannot come soon enough. I think if and when Lexus makes an ES hybrid, that they should use the V6 in the IS250 as a starting point. It's an excellent engine, with decent power and great gas mileage. Added with the electric motor, it should easily be able to achieve 32/33 MPG, and provide more than enough power to serve the purposes of the ES. I know Toyota does not want to stick an I-4 in their lineup, but I don't think that's necessarily a bad idea either. If Mercedes is putting one in the S-Class, Lexus could certainly add it as an option across the board. I for one do not need excessive power or am interested in bragging rights to having "more horsepower" than someone else. Power is great, but enough is enough. I could care less about a 500hp GS Sedan. But give me one with good handling, road feel, & steering, along with 30+MPG and I'm sold.
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Old 04-13-08, 11:17 AM
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We've found that our 330xi isn't even close to the fuel economy estimates. Another Lexus hybrid is in the future for my pops.
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Old 04-13-08, 12:57 PM
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Nice write-up, Mike. I agree with a number of your points. I would expand on a few of them, though.



Originally Posted by 1SICKLEX
When the IS debuted, gas was cheaper and Lexus forecasted wrong for 250/350 allocation. They were thinking 70/30 split 250/350 but it ended up with a 60/40 split 250/350.
Part of the reason the IS350 isn't doing better, of course, is gas, but I think the biggest reasons are not only the lack of an AWD version like on the lower-powered IS250 but also the severe competition from the BMW 335i. After reviewing both, I found the 335i to clearly deliver more of what buyers are looking for in this class of sport sedan.



People bished and moaned about the 250s lack of power all over the internet, though they probably don't understand not everyone has a Ferrari F40 poster hanging in their home. The internet army of goons don't understand basic rational and mostly type before they think. All cars should have 300hp, be RWD and drive like a Ferrari.
The IS250 AWD, by sport sedan standards, is indeed sluggish. It accelerates basically like a normally-aspirated 2.5L AWD Forester or Outback....maybe even a little slower than a 2.5i Impreza, the Impreza being smaller and lighter. But I agree with you that that is not a cause for b***hing.....RWD, manual-transmission IS250s and automatic IS350's are available with more power if people want it.




My prediction is also diesel simply will not take off in America. It still has a very negative cognition in American outside the diesel dozen diehards. Also diesel costs more than gas and a diesel car will cost more than an equivalent gas one so there really is no benefit. Acura is betting on a diesel TSX, it might get some VW converts and the usual Honda faithful but that is all. If you read the paper, truckers are up in arms over high diesel prices. Also, you cannot find diesel gas as abundant as regular gas. You better fill out before you leave the house!
This still remains to be seen. Diesels still offer hybrid-equivalent (or sometimes better) mileage with much less complexity under the hood and without the heavy battery packs. The current fly in the ointment, of course, is the outrageously expensive low-sulfur diesel fuel....currently, in my area, more expensive than premium gas. I still think that eventually we will see that price come down, though, as sales of diesel-powered cars increase, more low-sulfur diesel fuel is produced to meet that demand, and economies of scale increase.
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