1SICKBLOG:Tiers, My past sales predictions and future ones
10-12-09, 12:29 PM
#1
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1SICKBLOG:Tiers, My past sales predictions and future ones
My main predictions were Audi was on the rise (it is) Infinit won't sell 90k-100k units (they won't) and Acura will continue to decline (they are). So for 3 for 3 there. I did expect BMW to pass Lexus in sales (they won't) so I missed that prediction.
As I continue to evaluate the sales results its clear there are 4 "sales" Tiers here. By far the Tier 1 brands (real and sales) here sell the best and it only helps their legacy when their sales support their perception.
From there it gets muddy. Acura has long been 4th in sales but they are clearly the cheapest brand with Buick. This year they are in danger of being passed by 2 American brands, Cadillac and Buick. That would be a big deal to GM and a huge blow to Acura, proving what they are doing simply is not working.
The last sales Tier involves brands that many would agree are more prestigious than the Tier II sales brands, Audi, Infiniti, Lincoln (well maybe not Lincoln). I have predicted Audi will rise and pass Infiniti and I am sure they will by years end. A huge blow to Infiniti and a big momenum push for Audi. Lincoln I feel will remain where they are moving more up than down next year.
Finally its really just Volvo down there as Saab is a joke. Volvo has a new volume seller S60 coming so they might pass Lincoln but I don't see them passing Infiniti.
Automaker September
Lexus-17,939
Mercedes- 16,985
BMW- 15,047
Cadillac- 11,339 Huge 5k increase!
Buick- 9,455
RX-8,228 (for comparisons sake)
Acura-7,259
Audi- 7,209
Infiniti- 6,610
3 series-6,523(for comparisons sake)
Lincoln- 5,980
Volvo- 4,716
Saab- 484
Well I stated many times to watch out for Audi as they are on the rise and well, sales are supporting my prediction. Audi was always near the end of the pack, today, they are fighting Infiniti/Lincoln and AUDI WILL PASS both of them this year.
YTD 2009
Lexus- 149,408
BMW- 144,223
Mercedes- 135,413
Acura- 76,628
Cadillac- 73,024
Buick- 72,389
Infiniti- 59,886
Audi- 59,518
Lincoln- 59,236
Volvo- 46,729
Saab- 6,928
Looking at Septembers results, Acura fell to 6th in sales and Audi was a mere 51 units away from making them 7th. I predict this is not a one time thing and will be the beginning of a trend. It won't continue to be immediate but will happen slowly, like how Audi didn't just overtake anyone right away (Some months they did, some months they fell back, then they would jump back up)
Lets go down one by one:
Lexus: RX is the biggest hit yet. The RX is selling like the economy IS FINE.
The numbers are simply amazing. The ES/LS refresh won't help sales but sales won't fall off. The GS is waiting for a revamp as the SC. The new GX will help offset those 2 selling even smaller next year. The IS is holding well and will continue to do so. The HS is the right car for the right time. Smart luxury. Lexus will hold the sales crown this year and next.
BMW: They are disappointed by the 7 sales and the new Z4 hasn't sold great either. The 3 is bread and butter and will continue to be that way. The new 5 will help in 2011, not next year. The X5 is doing well and the new X1 will pick up where the X3 left off. WHen BMW has a X1 and X3 in full production, that will help sales tremendously and keep them at #2 here.
Benz: has a chance to become #2 as the new E class is doing okay and the C-class is a huge hit here. The GLK is as well. Their coupes are getting hit in the head though and even a new SL is only a small sales model. What may hurt them is perception as Benz does have the "biggest image" here and if the economy continues to stink, will people shy away from the Benz ornament?
Acura: Will drop to 6 or 7th in sales next year. Wrong (ugly.bling) styling at the wrong economic time, they no longer offer a clear "value", there is no performance and the new ZDX will flop. Even if they sell all 6k, that won't hold off the containing drop in sales. A great lesson in how to ruin your brand. Their best bet to hold off the sales loss is bringing the rebadged Civic CSX here.
Cadillac- Will pass Acura, GM is leasing again. The new SRX is no RX killer but will sell well as 2nd/3rd in class. The CTS will do fine. What hurts them is they are moving from the DTS yet sales are holding better than the STS. Hey Caddy, thats a sign people LIKE your older cars, not everyone wants some sport Caddy. I have a feeling some "Buy American" mantra will hit people more next year
Buick- Will pass Acura as well as they sell good cars without the "bling" styling and they do offer a strong value in some cases. They also continue to attract new customers and please older/loyal ones. They do need more product and vehicles though to continue to do well past 2009/2010. The LaCrosse will be a huge hit.
Infiniti continues to be in trouble as nearly 70% or more of sales are G37 sales. The new M won't sell as well as the last model simply b/c of the economy. The EX/FX are complete sales failures. Not sure how the market will react to a giant SUV from a floundering brand in the new QX but don't expect huge sales. Their biggest issue might be the Maxima, which sold over 5,000 units last month! Badge that thing an Infiniti!
Audi-Will pass Infiniti, Buick, Caddy and Acura next year in a close sales race. Their sedated styling even with LEDs works well today, they continue to offer performance models and they continue to be clear cut with what they want to accomplish in America. The new A8 will help some, the A6 needs a revamp but the A4 will continue to do well. A new A3 will help too. By 2011/2012, they will be the CLEAR 4th best in sales here.
Lincoln-Cannot get it all together. The MKS, MKZ are good but the new MKT thing is ridiculous and not sure what the point of it is. When the Edge gets redone the new MKX will too. They can pass Infiniti here, doubt they will pass Buick/Caddy/Acura. They have to work on what their message is, b/c is anyone sure of what it is? Their products do continue to improve.
Volvo: The safety message has been lost in translation with new styling. They do offer lots of wagons, and a couple SUVs though, mostly niche segments. The S40 could do better, the C30 should sell better for a cheaper vehicle and the S80 is all new still and doing okay. The new S60 will help tons. I expect them to stay where they are with sales
Saab: Will be gone soon, no write-up needed
We are witnessing a shift in buyers tastes here. Lexus will continue to hold the top spot but in the future but ALL 3 German brands will follow with Audi joining BMW/Benz. We will then see the American brands behind the Germans in sales in Caddy and Buick (possibly Lincoln). Then the last 2 Japanese brands and then Volvo.
As I continue to evaluate the sales results its clear there are 4 "sales" Tiers here. By far the Tier 1 brands (real and sales) here sell the best and it only helps their legacy when their sales support their perception.
From there it gets muddy. Acura has long been 4th in sales but they are clearly the cheapest brand with Buick. This year they are in danger of being passed by 2 American brands, Cadillac and Buick. That would be a big deal to GM and a huge blow to Acura, proving what they are doing simply is not working.
The last sales Tier involves brands that many would agree are more prestigious than the Tier II sales brands, Audi, Infiniti, Lincoln (well maybe not Lincoln). I have predicted Audi will rise and pass Infiniti and I am sure they will by years end. A huge blow to Infiniti and a big momenum push for Audi. Lincoln I feel will remain where they are moving more up than down next year.
Finally its really just Volvo down there as Saab is a joke. Volvo has a new volume seller S60 coming so they might pass Lincoln but I don't see them passing Infiniti.
Automaker September
Lexus-17,939
Mercedes- 16,985
BMW- 15,047
Cadillac- 11,339 Huge 5k increase!
Buick- 9,455
RX-8,228 (for comparisons sake)
Acura-7,259
Audi- 7,209
Infiniti- 6,610
3 series-6,523(for comparisons sake)
Lincoln- 5,980
Volvo- 4,716
Saab- 484
Well I stated many times to watch out for Audi as they are on the rise and well, sales are supporting my prediction. Audi was always near the end of the pack, today, they are fighting Infiniti/Lincoln and AUDI WILL PASS both of them this year.
YTD 2009
Lexus- 149,408
BMW- 144,223
Mercedes- 135,413
Acura- 76,628
Cadillac- 73,024
Buick- 72,389
Infiniti- 59,886
Audi- 59,518
Lincoln- 59,236
Volvo- 46,729
Saab- 6,928
Looking at Septembers results, Acura fell to 6th in sales and Audi was a mere 51 units away from making them 7th. I predict this is not a one time thing and will be the beginning of a trend. It won't continue to be immediate but will happen slowly, like how Audi didn't just overtake anyone right away (Some months they did, some months they fell back, then they would jump back up)
Lets go down one by one:
Lexus: RX is the biggest hit yet. The RX is selling like the economy IS FINE.
The numbers are simply amazing. The ES/LS refresh won't help sales but sales won't fall off. The GS is waiting for a revamp as the SC. The new GX will help offset those 2 selling even smaller next year. The IS is holding well and will continue to do so. The HS is the right car for the right time. Smart luxury. Lexus will hold the sales crown this year and next. BMW: They are disappointed by the 7 sales and the new Z4 hasn't sold great either. The 3 is bread and butter and will continue to be that way. The new 5 will help in 2011, not next year. The X5 is doing well and the new X1 will pick up where the X3 left off. WHen BMW has a X1 and X3 in full production, that will help sales tremendously and keep them at #2 here.
Benz: has a chance to become #2 as the new E class is doing okay and the C-class is a huge hit here. The GLK is as well. Their coupes are getting hit in the head though and even a new SL is only a small sales model. What may hurt them is perception as Benz does have the "biggest image" here and if the economy continues to stink, will people shy away from the Benz ornament?
Acura: Will drop to 6 or 7th in sales next year. Wrong (ugly.bling) styling at the wrong economic time, they no longer offer a clear "value", there is no performance and the new ZDX will flop. Even if they sell all 6k, that won't hold off the containing drop in sales. A great lesson in how to ruin your brand. Their best bet to hold off the sales loss is bringing the rebadged Civic CSX here.
Cadillac- Will pass Acura, GM is leasing again. The new SRX is no RX killer but will sell well as 2nd/3rd in class. The CTS will do fine. What hurts them is they are moving from the DTS yet sales are holding better than the STS. Hey Caddy, thats a sign people LIKE your older cars, not everyone wants some sport Caddy. I have a feeling some "Buy American" mantra will hit people more next year
Buick- Will pass Acura as well as they sell good cars without the "bling" styling and they do offer a strong value in some cases. They also continue to attract new customers and please older/loyal ones. They do need more product and vehicles though to continue to do well past 2009/2010. The LaCrosse will be a huge hit.
Infiniti continues to be in trouble as nearly 70% or more of sales are G37 sales. The new M won't sell as well as the last model simply b/c of the economy. The EX/FX are complete sales failures. Not sure how the market will react to a giant SUV from a floundering brand in the new QX but don't expect huge sales. Their biggest issue might be the Maxima, which sold over 5,000 units last month! Badge that thing an Infiniti!
Audi-Will pass Infiniti, Buick, Caddy and Acura next year in a close sales race. Their sedated styling even with LEDs works well today, they continue to offer performance models and they continue to be clear cut with what they want to accomplish in America. The new A8 will help some, the A6 needs a revamp but the A4 will continue to do well. A new A3 will help too. By 2011/2012, they will be the CLEAR 4th best in sales here.
Lincoln-Cannot get it all together. The MKS, MKZ are good but the new MKT thing is ridiculous and not sure what the point of it is. When the Edge gets redone the new MKX will too. They can pass Infiniti here, doubt they will pass Buick/Caddy/Acura. They have to work on what their message is, b/c is anyone sure of what it is? Their products do continue to improve.
Volvo: The safety message has been lost in translation with new styling. They do offer lots of wagons, and a couple SUVs though, mostly niche segments. The S40 could do better, the C30 should sell better for a cheaper vehicle and the S80 is all new still and doing okay. The new S60 will help tons. I expect them to stay where they are with sales
Saab: Will be gone soon, no write-up needed
We are witnessing a shift in buyers tastes here. Lexus will continue to hold the top spot but in the future but ALL 3 German brands will follow with Audi joining BMW/Benz. We will then see the American brands behind the Germans in sales in Caddy and Buick (possibly Lincoln). Then the last 2 Japanese brands and then Volvo.
10-12-09, 01:51 PM
#2
We are witnessing a shift in buyers tastes here. Lexus will continue to hold the top spot but in the future but ALL 3 German brands will follow with Audi joining BMW/Benz. We will then see the American brands behind the Germans in sales in Caddy and Buick (possibly Lincoln). Then the last 2 Japanese brands and then Volvo.
10-12-09, 06:38 PM
#3
Lexus Test Driver
Just wondering what are Porsche's 2009 totals?, with the Cayanne and Panmera they are kind of a luxury brand, also Jaguar is not on the list. I agree with everything you said, except i think Cadillac will be number four and Audi number five in the next sales figures.
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