http://www.businessweek.com/globalbi...216_085254.htm

Subaru Sales in U.S., China to Rise Next Year
Ikuo Mori, CEO of Subaru parent Fuji Heavy, says the Japanese carmaker is considering production in China and may choose a local partner in 2010
Asia


By Kiyori Ueno and Yuki Hagiwara

(Bloomberg) — Fuji Heavy Industries, the maker of Subaru-brand cars, expects to boost sales in the U.S. and China next year and is considering making vehicles in China as automobile demand surges in the world's most populous nation.

The Japanese carmaker may sell 230,000 vehicles in the U.S. next year compared with 215,000 this year, Chief Executive Officer Ikuo Mori, 62, said in an interview at the company's head office in Tokyo today. China sales may rise to 50,000 from 35,000, he said.

Fuji Heavy, 16.5 percent owned by Toyota Motor (TM), is considering local production in China as the nation's vehicle demand may rise to as much as 16 million units next year, Mori said. The maker of Forester sport-utility vehicles increased sales 84 percent in China in the first 10 months of this year as economic growth and subsidies boosted industrywide demand.

Fuji Heavy may choose a local partner to produce vehicles in China within a year, Mori said.

The carmaker rose 1.3 percent to close at 405 yen in Tokyo trading, compared with a 1.5 percent gain in Japan's Topix index.

Fuji Heavy raised U.S. sales of its vehicles, including the revamped Legacy sedan, by 14 percent in the 11 months through November even as industrywide sales in the nation dropped 24 percent.

The carmaker narrowed its full-year loss forecast last month, citing rising sales and cost cuts. The automaker now expects to post a net loss of 25 billion yen ($279 million) in the year ending March 31, compared with an earlier forecast for a 55 billion yen loss. Fuji Heavy also raised its global vehicle sales forecast for this fiscal year to 545,000 from 508,000.

 

Subaru needs to improve the fuel efficiency of the Impreza and Forester line to keep the sales of those vehicles positive. However, this shouldnt be too difficult as they now have a very efficient CVT. They need to make haste though with that.

 

When the Chinese start driving Subarus, I think that may wean them off of Buicks.....although, to be fair, Buick does have an AWD version of the new LaCrosse.

Subarus, in other markets, are not limited to just AWD models like in the U.S.
In China, they can be competitive with other FWD models.


I disagree here, at least to an extent, for three reasons.

First, one does not buy an AWD Subaru for max gas economy, but for reliabiity and all-weather use. Of course, it wouldn't hurt to add some MPG if possible, but that is not Subaru's primary forte....or the reasons customers buy them.

Second, Subaru's CVT transmission, used on non-turbo 2.5L Legacys and Outbacks, is new and unproven in the reliability department. Though it performs well (and, supposedly, comes from the same supplier as the Nissan units), Nissan has had to extend the factory warranty on those CVTs....which is not a good long-term sign. Nissan, however, uses their CVTs on stronger engines than Subaru does, which, of course, puts more stress on the pulleys and drive belt. The N/A Subaru 2.5s have only 170 ft-lbs. of torque, which is not that much.

Third, a better idea for Subaru than the CVT, IMO, would have been to do it Suzuki-style.....use a conventional transmission and a 2WD/AWD selector switch that allows you to decouple the AWD when you want (or need) better economy and more power. That system, though, is obviously not the cheapest way to do it.

 

Good inputs.

However, I do believe Subaru has something similar (I think) to what you are clamoring for.





Subaru calls it "5-speed Manual Transmission + Viscous Centre Differential AWD" which includes a Dual Range Drive Selector (only available on 5-door models that have EL15 and EJ20 engines)

 

That system, as I understand it, does not actually decouple the AWD/center differential, but simply selects from two different torque-split ranges. It is (more or less) similiar to the DCCD (Driver-controlled) AWD in the Mitsubishi Evo.

 

Sure people buy Subarus for AWD, but with the price of gas rising, there are certainly going to be people who say that they can live without it, much like they can live without 8 cylinders or choose a compact instead of a midsize. I believe that there is a whole group of buyers who would consider the Impreza, but are enticed by Corolla's, Civic's, or Cobalt's fuel economy #s. In short, high gas prices are making AWD a luxury that people can live without.

My understanding is that Audi too uses the same CVT unit and have had much success with its reliablity. However, I do wonder the utility of switching from 2WD to AWD. In the 400h, it makes complete sense. However, in a Suzuki the driveshaft to the rear is still there, no matter what mode you are in. Thus weight is not eliminated. It would be interesting to see if there is a significant difference in fuel economy between the two modes. While it isn't quite the same, I recall installing the FWD fuse in my first Legacy and there was no difference in fuel economy. Furthermore, the 150 HP SX4 with AWD doesnt get the gas mileage that the new Legacy 2.5i does.

 

If gas mileage is that high a priority for them, many of them will probably end up looking at a Prius or Insight before conventional compacts, notwithstanding the fact that the hyrids usually cost more. Many people don't stop to think that for the extra price of a hybrid, you can buy a LOT of gasoline (depending on its pump price, of course).

Perhaps. Consumer Reports seems to have inconclusive data on several Audis with it.

Decoupling AWD, of course, does not eliminate the weight, but it does eliminate some drag (or, it should, if the system is working properly). In the smaller Suzuki SX-4, which definitely has that device, I noticed a slight, but noticeable, difference in power. Of course, I didn't have the car long enough for a fill-up, to check the difference mileage. The Kizashi, which I reviewed a few days ago, was supposed to also have that device, but I didn't see a switch for it (neither did the Suzuki people there).

Perhaps the "FWD" fuse in your Legacy did not actually decouple the system (?). For my Outback, Subaru supplies a fuse-puller and says to take the fuse out completely. You do that if a front tire goes flat, put a good tire from the back up front, and mount the temporary spare in the rear.

 

Back to the thread topic, if Subaru does decide to build cars in Chna, I hope they can keep up the high quality level there that they have on both the American-made and Japanese-made Subarus. So far, according to Consumer Reports, only the WRX seems to have significant reliability problems.

 

Yes, but if you are cross shopping a Cobalt and an Impreza there is a big difference between 27 MPG Hwy and 37 MPG. Big enough to persuade you that AWD isnt really neccessary.

 

True, but it depends on a number of factors. AWD is useful for more than just snow and ice...it also helps in rain. And, if I can get 27 MPG with AWD (I've done as good as 31-32 with my Outback going to Ocean City), I certainly won't complain.

 

here we go again. Once again, you do not get full time awd in suzuki when you put it to awd... you get part time awd which is almost always fwd. then ocassionally power gets transfered to real wheels when there is slipping situation.

and such systems are actually cheaper than full time systems... hence rav4 has it, rx350 does not... older system like in CRV did not work anywhere as well.

i am all for properly done part time awd system, just like in rav4... it is lighter, cheaper, and works quite well in light road applications (driving in rain/snow and better performance/less wheelspin). however it is not for heavy use, system will shut itself off if it gets used too much. And i am not sure if it is fast enough for RWD applications either.

 

Yes.....here we go again. It is "full-time" AWD in that it is completely automatic and does no require any manual driver input through a transfer case. Now, true, all 4 wheels may not be receiving torque all the time like on Subarus....but the principle is the same.

I think you and I just have a slightly different view of how to define "full-time" vs. "part-time" systems.

I agree that the RAV4 system is probably not as good for ultra-slippery conditons and/or deep snow as Subaru's. It allows too much wheel-slip before transfering the torque to the wheels with traction.

 

Again, back on topic, this is an interesting prediction, considering that Subaru, in the last few years, has dropped a number of models they previously sold in the U.S. This includes the Legacy Wagons, Outback sedans, manual-transmission Forester XT (turbo), automatic-transmission Legacy GT (turbo), Outback L.L. Bean, Forester L.L. Bean, all of the turbo Outbacks (manual and automatic), the basic, no-frills Outback, and the Tribeca itself may (?) soon be on the chopping block as well....there is some talk about it. Of course, Subaru did recently add the turbo Impreza GT (actually the former WRX model, when the WRX went upscale and got more power), and the Premium-package Impreza, but, on the whole, there are fewer Subaru models being offered in the U.S. than just a few years ago. Subaru marketers must be figuring that (hopefully) a better economy next year will help offset the loss of models.

I won't comment much on this part, as I'm not as familiar with Subaru's Asian-market line-up as much as I am with the American one, although I know they do sell the Forester STi there.

 

I don't see the 5EAT STi doing much for them. They should sell the Exiga in the United States.