bigbwb

Is it possible that with the strict CAFE standards coming, auto makers for profit reasons, will just start to downsize their "truck/SUV" market rather than invest billions in Hybrid & other new technologies? I know all auto makers will have alternatives to gas engines such as the Volt & etc, but yikes, 34 MPG averaged across the board seems tough. I am more afraid that vehicles like the 2010 4runner I just bought may someday eventually just be phased out completely due to these strict laws coming into effect. Again, just me thinking out loud.

Brandon

SLegacy99

I'm not sure why we got on the large SUV fix. i understand vehicles such as the 4Runner or Explorer. However, I work in a congested town and I watch people attempt to parallel park their Tahoes and Suburbans from my window all day. Failure is usually the result. What is the appeal here? They're expensive, expensive to run, and difficult to drive.

4TehNguyen

iTrader: (1)

if the industry goes this route, older cars will just be more desireable and kept as long as possible, gonna be like what happened to cars in the 70s. 50-60s cars were way better and still highly desired

mmarshall

Not really. You have to remember that in the 1970's, while it is true that engine efficiency, power, mileage, and drivability was down due to emission controls, there were several MAJOR automotive improvements that did not exist, or were not widespread in the 1960's. By the 1970s, many cars had standard front disc brakes, self-adjusting rear drums, electronic ignition systems that eliminated the need for constant tune-ups, cleaner-running engines/spark plugs that did not foul or get deposits, lubed-for-life chassis components that eliminated the need for grease jobs, numerous safety improvements such as headrests/seat belts/shoulder harnesses, higher-quality radios/stereos that got both AM/FM, tape players, radial tires, and, on some upmarket/luxury cars, fuel injection instead of carburators. Despite lower power, There were MANY practical reasons for driving 1970's cars over those from the 50s and 60s.

So, while it is true that the 50s/60s cars had more personality and more power compared to the cars that followed them, they were also a PITA to own and service. I know.....I started driving in the 1960s.

IS350jet

Well, not really. They've been saying that for 50 years. The ICE, as we know it, is nowhere near its full efficiency, but engineers keep getting closer and closer and will continue to do so for years to come. I've often been quoted as saying "In the next 30-40 years we will have 500 + HP cars easily meeting or exceeding EPA standards. Technology and innovation will get us there, always has, always will".

IS-SV

And the 70's is not about to be repeated in this case either.

mmarshall

Well, the idea of a large increase in the CAFE standards is more or less a repeat of the 1970's, except that back then, it was a knee-jerk reaction to the '73-74 gas crisis/Arab oil embargo and the price runup, whereas, now, in the 21st Century, it's more of an effort to shift to alternative-fuels and wean the heavy dependence on foreign oil. It's also interesting that both of them were preceeded by an age of muscle-cars and a marked horsepower race. You are correct about there being one major difference, though..............this time, for a number of reasons, OPEC is not anywhere near the force it was in the 1970's, when the cartel could almost literally dictate market conditions. Back then, Saudi Arabia, with its huge oil reserves (50-60% of known world supply), kept things from becoming a complete disaster by producing enough (after the '73-74 embargo) to keep the West out of a major depression.

spwolf

it is a bit different in EU as rules are directed at individual sales and not overall numbers, which i think is actually better.

So even if Toyota sells 10 million Priuses in Europe, if you want to buy LC200 V8, you will pay highest possible tax for it both at time of purchase and during yearly renewal, despite millions of Priuses and iQ's and Aygos and Yarii sold.

At the end, this is what will happen in the USA as well, but it wont be as clear cut to the consumer - because manufacturers will not be able to reach the goal and hence they will pay $$$ penalties to the govt, and those penalties will trickle down to car prices.

On the other hand, problem with EU is that it has no unified policy, so different countries have different rules. At the same time, due to how EU gas mileage is calculated, start/stop systems are very effective so everyone will be implementing those on as many vehicles as possible to get 10-15% reduction in official numbers. Of course, most of those systems are completely useless in real life unless they are in some kind of mild hybrid with hybrid batteries as they will only shut down cars in limited amount.

What happens now is that to manufacturers, hybrid cars now become cheaper and everyone will try to have them... it is win-win situation for the customers.

IS-SV

All that trivia is nice. And yes the Big 3 continue to fight all mileage, safety, and emissions regulations just like back in the 70's. But my response to the 70's stuff had nothing to do with all that trivia.

Progress and technology will continue to move ahead despite the internet chatter.

4TehNguyen

iTrader: (1)

how much you wanna bet Govt Motors gets less strict standards than other companies

-J-P-L-

Yeah, what's the government going to do, fine themselves?

mmarshall

Frankly, to some extent, I hope they win....but it is not likely. It's not that I'm against better mileage and lower emissions just for the sake of opposition. But, IMO, it's gotten to where it is genuine overkill. The average 21st-Century car and light truck, today, already pollutes less than 1% of 1968-1970 exhaust levels, and gets probably twice the gas mileage. Meanwhile, as standards get ever stricter for cars and light trucks, large diesel locomotives, large trucks/18-wheelers, many buses, construction/farm vehicles, and aircraft go almost completely unregulated (except for the natural-gas buses). They've gotten essentially a free ride at the expense of us everyday motorists and car owners. I just don't think the system, so far, has been fair.

SLegacy99

Does the commerical airline industry have standards for which they will have to comply to in the future? I recall reading something about it, but it was sometime ago.

bagwell

here's something I just found...

The fuel savings — and reduced greenhouse gas emissions — produced by the 35.5 miles per gallon standard are impressive. Over the life of the 2012-2016 model years covered by the rules, the drop in oil usage will be 1.8 billion barrels, more than the nation imports each year from Saudi Arabia. By 2020, the savings will amount to 1.3 million barrels a day — about 7 percent of the country’s current daily use.

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ed..._fuel_economy/

4TehNguyen

iTrader: (1)

those fantasy figures always assume that every single car is replaced with these new 35mpg vehicles, which is completely unrealistic.