It Isn't Easy Being Green . . .
05-09-12, 11:37 AM
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Out of Warranty
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It Isn't Easy Being Green . . .
At least not as easy as some thought when they wrote those government fuel mandates that proposed to take off fossil fuels by 2022.
Amyris, one of a number of companies working on producing biodiesel from sunshine and algae through a "synthetic biology" process has run straight into the realities of the market. Currently, their biodiesel product is costing over $7/gallon to produce, and it doesn't look like there's a whole lot of efficiency to be gained in the near term. The company has been losing money on this effort for several years and before this one division drags the rest of the corporation under, they have decided to cut their losses.
It's not that their product doesn't have an application. The fine grade of oils they can produce have found a ready market in the cosmetics industry, where several dollars per liter looks like a bargain. Amyris is going to pursue these opportunities in an effort to recover their losses and will be shutting down their fuel research to turn to more profitable products.
Elsewhere, it is becoming apparent that more "green" energy companies are having a difficult time meeting synfuel requirements at the current pump price. This wasn't even a close contest, and a miss is as good as a mile - in this case with some of the more sanguine companies talking about fuel prices having to double in the next four years to make synfuels from biomass competitive.
With six new biofuel plants coming on stream this year, the annual US output of synfuels will reach as much as 10.5 million gallons, FAR short of the 500 million gallons mandated by the federal government for 2013 and the goal for 2022 of 50 Billion gallons is not even within the realm of possibility without gas prices around $20/gallon (adjusted for projected inflation).
If you think that federally mandated technology is ludicrous, but it's not - not if you think of it as federal price controls. If this foolishness would be allowed to continue, you and I would be spending hundreds of dollars per month for motor fuel. You know that there will be an end to this, by a new administration or a new congress. You don't win public office by doubling the price of gas. Not in this world.
Ultimately it appears that the major energy companies are depending on the electorate to put an end to government mandates on technology. You don't see them investing heavily in technology when they know that federal pressure will disappear in coming elections. You don't make 20-year investments on something as evanescent as a political agenda that can be erased by a single vote.
Amyris, one of a number of companies working on producing biodiesel from sunshine and algae through a "synthetic biology" process has run straight into the realities of the market. Currently, their biodiesel product is costing over $7/gallon to produce, and it doesn't look like there's a whole lot of efficiency to be gained in the near term. The company has been losing money on this effort for several years and before this one division drags the rest of the corporation under, they have decided to cut their losses.
It's not that their product doesn't have an application. The fine grade of oils they can produce have found a ready market in the cosmetics industry, where several dollars per liter looks like a bargain. Amyris is going to pursue these opportunities in an effort to recover their losses and will be shutting down their fuel research to turn to more profitable products.
Elsewhere, it is becoming apparent that more "green" energy companies are having a difficult time meeting synfuel requirements at the current pump price. This wasn't even a close contest, and a miss is as good as a mile - in this case with some of the more sanguine companies talking about fuel prices having to double in the next four years to make synfuels from biomass competitive.
With six new biofuel plants coming on stream this year, the annual US output of synfuels will reach as much as 10.5 million gallons, FAR short of the 500 million gallons mandated by the federal government for 2013 and the goal for 2022 of 50 Billion gallons is not even within the realm of possibility without gas prices around $20/gallon (adjusted for projected inflation).
If you think that federally mandated technology is ludicrous, but it's not - not if you think of it as federal price controls. If this foolishness would be allowed to continue, you and I would be spending hundreds of dollars per month for motor fuel. You know that there will be an end to this, by a new administration or a new congress. You don't win public office by doubling the price of gas. Not in this world.
Ultimately it appears that the major energy companies are depending on the electorate to put an end to government mandates on technology. You don't see them investing heavily in technology when they know that federal pressure will disappear in coming elections. You don't make 20-year investments on something as evanescent as a political agenda that can be erased by a single vote.
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