Audi AG (NSU) trimmed Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW)’s lead in 2012 luxury-car sales to just 2,110 vehicles in August, threatening BMW’s seven-year hold on the top position in premium auto deliveries.

The Volkswagen AG (VOW) luxury brand boosted eight-month sales 13 percent to 961,000 vehicles, compared with BMW’s 7.8 percent increase to 963,110 autos, according to the two companies’ monthly sales reports. BMW, the world’s largest-maker of luxury cars, led by 40,513 vehicles through August of last year.

VW is reaping the benefits from pouring 20 billion euros ($25.6 billion) into research and development at Audi since 2002. The luxury brand now sells 12 model lines, twice what it had in 2003, including three sport-utility vehicles, the A1 compact and the R8 sports car. Audi, which ranks second in premium-vehicle deliveries since overtaking Daimler AG (DAI)’s Mercedes-Benz in 2011, has a goal of beating BMW by 2020.

Audi is likely to overtake BMW several years ahead of that target unless “there are surprising shifts in market share which I don’t expect, especially in China,” said Daniel Schwarz, a Frankfurt-based Commerzbank analyst. “They are the strongest growing luxury brand, and they just launched the A3, which is close to being their best-selling car in a peak year.”

The updated A3 hatchback went on sale in Germany in August, three weeks ahead of Mercedes’ A-Class. Mercedes plans to expand its lineup of compacts from two to at least five in the coming years, and has opened a new plant in Hungary dedicated to building smaller models. The A3, which made up 14 percent of Audi’s 2011 deliveries, starts at 21,600 euros, undercutting the A-Class’s base price of 23,978 euros.

Audi Momentum
“There will be more A-Class derivatives over the coming years,” said Commerzbank’s Schwarz. “But the A3 is established in the market and will take the lead among the three brands, helping Audi to keep its sales momentum.”

Volkswagen advanced 70 cents, or 0.5 percent, to 142 euros in Frankfurt trading today. Munich-based BMW gained 0.9 percent to 58.53 euros, while Daimler fell 0.8 percent to 38.77 euros.

The 102,730 vehicles BMW sold in August fell short of the 108,100 sold by Audi, which also passed the BMW brand in deliveries in April and July. The VW unit’s delivery growth was led by jumps so far this year of 33 percent in China and 18 percent in the U.S., the world’s two biggest auto markets.

“Every month the figures are surprisingly good,” said Frankfurt-based Silvia Quandt analyst Albrecht Denninghoff, who rates VW neutral. “Audi’s growth is overwhelmingly because of China, with the U.S. also playing a role.”

Chinese Growth
BMW has been slower to capitalize on growth in the Chinese market than Audi, which has built cars in Changchun as part of a joint venture with First Automobile Works since 1996. BMW is now quadrupling its Chinese production capacity, having started manufacturing with partner Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Ltd. (1114) in 2003.

Surging China sales have helped Ingolstadt, Germany-based Audi double deliveries in the last 10 years, and the luxury brand now accounts for 47 percent of group operating profit.

Mercedes-Benz and BMW are both considering following Audi in setting up production in Mexico for the U.S. market, Carlos Guzman, head of ProMexico, said in an interview last month. Mercedes and BMW, unlike Audi, already have U.S. factories.

Audi will invest $1.3 billion in a plant in the state of Puebla to produce the Q5 SUV. The plant is scheduled to open in 2016 with an annual capacity of 150,000 vehicles.

“The new factory will help Audi in the U.S.,” Denninghoff said. “The 150,000 cars that will come there can certainly compensate for slowing growth in China.”

BMW is expecting to regain some sales momentum with the arrival of the wagon version of its 3-Series executive car in showrooms this month. The derivative usually accounts for two- thirds of 3-Series registrations in Germany, the carmaker said last week.

BMW has held the luxury-car sales lead since 2005, when it passed Stuttgart, Germany-based Mercedes to nab the top spot. Mercedes last year fell to third in global deliveries.

BMW: Audi is not a threat
“It took us many years to build the trust in our customer. It takes many years to achieve what we always wanted to achieve, to become number one or number two in the world.” It appears that, in the eyes of BMW, Audi's four rings have a long way to go until it becomes a genuine rival to the blue and white propeller.