Hoovey689

iTrader: (16)

America's driving boom is over, study indicates

The “driving boom is over,” or so says a new study of American attitudes towards the automobile.

After decades of adding more cars to their household fleet while moving further and further out into the suburbs, Americans are waiting longer to get licensed, driving less and increasingly turning to alternatives such as mass transit or car-sharing programs, according to a new study by the U.S. Public Research Interest Group, or PIRG.

Declaring the boom in automotive transportation “over, the study stresses that, "The time has come for America to hit the reset button on transportation policy—replacing the policy infrastructure of the driving boom years with a more efficient, flexible and nimble system that is better able to meet the transportation needs of the 21st century."

The changes are apparent among virtually all demographic groups, but especially so with Millennials. They’re showing an increased desire to move back into urban centers where cars are often a hindrance, and they are increasingly turning to mass transit – a factor that can be seen in a steady growth in ridership on both city bus and rail systems and even the long-struggling Amtrak.

The trend, if it continues, would be one of the most significant shifts in American lifestyle in the better part of a century, the PIRG study coming just a year short of the 100th anniversary of the moving assembly line launched by Henry Ford to build his groundbreaking Model T.

The automobile, note researchers, helped completely redefine post-War America, and that led to a six-decade increase in the number of miles U.S. motorists logged each year. But federal data show that Americans have begun to reduce their driving this decade.

Exactly why is a matter of debate – as is the likelihood the trend will continue. Some studies suggest the decline is simply the result of the worst economic slump since the Great Depression, worsened by surging fuel prices. But PIRG’s study indicates the shift is likely to be longer-term and reflects a very significant change in attitude among the nation’s youngest generation of motorists.

It found that motorists aged 16 to 34 logged 23% fewer miles behind the wheel in 2009 than the same age group recorded in 2001. They’re also waiting longer before actually obtaining their driver’s licenses and using alternative transportation more often.

That is reflected not only in the increased use of mass transit but also in the growth of such alternatives as car-sharing services which can provide quick, short-term access to a vehicle without the hassles of ownership.

It’s not just Millennials. Overall, the percentages of Americans of driving age who actually were licensed fell to just 86% in 2011, a 30-year low. As recently as 1992, the figure stood at 90%. Meanwhile, the number of vehicles Americans owned has also begun to tumble.

For decades, there have been more cars than licensed drivers – reaching a record 1.24 vehicles per U.S. motorist in 2006. That is now down by 4%, according to PIRG.

"This is a new direction - a real break, a real change, said Phineas Baxandall, a PIRG analyst and the study’s co-author. “After 2004, on a per capita basis, driving has gone down, and the number of vehicle-miles driven has also gone down each year since 2004."

The data give hope to those who’d like to see a shift in public spending away from roads and other automotive infrastructure in favor of mass transit. But not everyone is willing to accept that the trends identified by the PIRG study are permanent.

"Younger buyers under 30 are listing financial problems as their reason for not buying new cars," Sean McAlinden, chief Economist for the Ann Arbor, Michigan-based Center for Automotive Research, told Reuters. "If and when the economy recovers, they will buy cars at the same rate as other generations."

Other analysts, however, note that increases in urban population are likely to remain an active trend with U.S. Millennials, echoing a global push towards urbanization. And that will almost certainly require changes in policy, both on the private and public level.

It’s a factor a number of automakers have identified and are responding to in various ways, including more active participation by manufacturers like Ford and Daimler AG in car-sharing services that can serve as a substitute for individual vehicle ownership.

On the other hand, says marketing executive Amy Marentec, as Millennials age, move back out to the suburbs and follow more traditional trends, Ford hopes that they’ll “be more familiar with our products and willing to buy them.”

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/amer...id=msnhp&pos=1

4TehNguyen

iTrader: (1)

gasoline consumption has fallen back to 1997 levels, the average vehicle age is increasing, used car prices are very hot now, people are keeping their cars longer

-J-P-L-

As is pointed out in the article, I agree a lot of it is likely due to the millennial's economic state. This group is most effected by this long down economy. Many of them graduating college with no job and a pile of debt.

No doubt one of the main reasons that the average age of cars is increasing is not just economic but because they are built far better than ever before. My 2007 Yaris, for example, has 138,000 miles on it and it has yet to go in for a single repair. Still drives and feels like brand new. Cars up through the '90's were turning to crap with that mileage except for Toyota's and Honda's.

FrankReynoldsCPA

It's funny that i should read this within minutes of a new roommate moving in. A roommate who does not have a driver's license or car, and is driven everywhere by his parents.

I see kids like this all the time, perfectly content to rely on mom and dad for a ride. Public transportation is not really established here, just a small taxi service and a bus that has a very limited route.

gengar

We've had this debate on this forum before, but I don't get the desire to have huge sprawling urban centers - not to mention it seems at odds with economic problems. Having skyscraper-filled cities with all the crowding problems that they bring increases costs, not decrease them.

I wonder how much that has an effect on demand on a larger scale as well. Maybe people find public transportation much cheaper only because in so many cases it is so heavily subsidized by taxpayer dollars.

jwong77

Could also another reason be the relative cost of cars has gone up? I remember reading that the median price of cars is 30k now (no I didn't look this up, just using my somewhat suspect memory), so for economic reasons, it makes more sense to keep cars longer especially if they aren't costing much to keep running.

Och

iTrader: (3)

With gas over $4, its no surprise younger people are not driving - they simply can't afford to. My teen daughter's internship job pays the same as it would back in the 90ies, yet the price of gas quadrupled. It used to cost me $15 to fill up my first car, and for her its $50 to fill up hers. Thats quite a difference there.

Aron9000

They say my generation(I'm 29) is moving back into the city. It will be interesting to see when our kids get to school age if the trend reverses and younger people start moving back into the suburbs for the better school districts.

FrankReynoldsCPA

I'd sooner kill myself than live in an urban center. Rural or suburban only for this guy.

Fizzboy7

I know in my neck of the woods here in the San Fernando Valley, there's less auto owners and more people riding the bus and metro. This is reflective of the amount of immigrants who have "migrated" into the area since the 90's and cannot afford the ownership of an auto and the expenses that come with it. Not being legal further complicates things. Local governments catering to this trend have built up public transportation to meet the needs, while road improvements and highway expansions have suffered. All arrows have pointed to public transportation for quite some time now.
Or I could just say we are losing the middle class who can afford to drive, and gaining a bigger lower class who cannot afford to drive. Progress America!

Outrage

Another article predicting the death of the automobile. Uh huh, yeah. I think this is an attempt for the tail to wag the dog. The mainstream media, which operates solely in urban centers, hopes if enough of these articles come out we'll all just sell off our cars and join the great "collective".

Cars sales are suffering due to the "Great Recession". There's less (valuable) money flowing through the economy, thus, sales for goods are down. The unemployment rate for young adults is quite high. At the same time automobiles prices are quickly inflating due to ever increasing regulatory demands. Compare the average income versus the average car price over the decades and you'll see that automobiles continue to demand an increasing percentage of one's income. It's even worse when the income is zero.

marshall2j

idk what they're talking about... between the wife and I (no kids), we own 4 coupes LOL

RocketGuy3

iTrader: (1)

I agree that a lot of this may be a result of the economy, but I also agree that a lot of it just has to do with a trending change in lifestyle. As someone in the younger age group they discuss most (and who therefore knows many other such people), I have anecdotally seen this first hand. I take public transport (mostly the DART rail) whenever it is conveniently possible and plan to move closer to the city, and I know many of my friends feel the same way. And most of us are doing just fine financially... AND we live in Texas.


Do you have any data to show that? I've read that it is cheaper to maintain a high density city per capita than a low density one (less energy, water, transportation, etc infra investments). I'll try to find the article about it.

The exception, of course, is the cost of land in most cases... high demand = high price.

Blackraven

Some things are becoming more expensive in comparison into how much people are earning (on average........not yet factoring in any global economic crisis).

Remember, it's you versus 7 BILLION other people on this planet competing for space, resources, wealth and so on.

rominl

iTrader: (4)

this is where i am confused too. the article seems to make a lot of sense and i agree, and slowdown seems to be there too as a result of economy. but yet, prices of new cars continue to go up at a pretty steep rate and i still see new cars a lot on the road. what gives...