Hoovey689

iTrader: (16)

Why Toyota constantly improving the Prius' fuel economy is something of a fool's errand

Toyota has a great marketing line when it comes to the power of hybrids: "Toyota estimates its hybrids have saved their owners more than 3 billion gallons of gasoline worldwide compared to gasoline-only powered vehicles." We're not going to quibble with that number – it is impressive – but it did raise some questions. After all, if Toyota is really interested in saving billions of gallons of gas, then shouldn't the company try to improve the bottom, and not worry as much about the top?

After all, we recently heard Satoshi Ogiso, managing officer for Toyota Motor Corporation and an engineer who has been involved in every iteration of the Prius, say something curious. While talking about how the second and third generations of the Prius have each beat the model that came before by around 10 percent on the fuel economy front, he said, "The challenge to improve at this rate, to beat your own record, becomes very difficult, but all the more motivating. I can tell you we are very motivated to beat our record." So, we asked Ogiso a simple question: "Would it be harder or easier to make, let's say, the Camry, get five more miles per gallon than the Prius to get five more miles per gallon?" He gave us a simple answer: it is "probably a little bit easier for the Camry."

With this in mind, let's look at the numbers. In 2012, Toyota sold 404,886 Camrys in the US, compared to 147,507 Prius models. The 2013-model-year Camry gets a combined EPA rating of 28 mpg, while the Prius Liftback gets 50. The average US driver puts almost 13,500 miles onto their car in a year, so if Toyota were to turn the 28-mpg Camry into a 33-mpg sedan, each car would save 73 gallons of fuel a year, on average. Turning the 50 mpg Prius into a possible 55-mpg Prius would mean each Prius burns 25 fewer gallons a year. When we throw in sales rates, Americans would save a mind-boggling 29.6 million gallons of gas a year by improving the Camry by five mpg compared to the 3.7 million gallons a 55-mpg Prius would save. And, remember, Ogiso said that saving 29.6 million gallons would be easier than working so hard to save "just" 3.7 million. We've got the math below if you want to take a look.


There's a lot of ways to adjust these numbers (the different Prius models are all lumped together in the sales figures, even though they have different fuel economy ratings) and we're only taking the US into account. Also, to be fair, this is an argument that we could make against any automaker, but the general point holds true. Toyota would have a much bigger actual, real-world fuel efficiency impact if it improved its bottom end instead of focusing on the top. Obviously, being the mpg leader has its PR benefits and there are a million other factors to consider, but we were still curious what Ogiso thought about these numbers. After all, as of January of 2012, Ogiso was put in charge of improving some of Toyota's conventionally powered vehicles, in addition to his work on hybrids.

"Of course we concentrate on improving the new-generation Prius," he said. "At the same time, we pay attention and effort to the conventional Camry. If the Prius customers stay in the Prius and the Camry customers stay in the Camry, [your] calculation is right, but thinking about the Camry customer moving into the Prius, that would result in more [fuel savings]." Ogiso admitted that 250,000 people moving from the Camry to the Prius is an unlikely swap, but some consumers do make the leap.

Ogiso also said he has work to do. "Inside Toyota, the hybrid group members have a good performance, a [better] way of improving mpg than the conventional powertrain. The first year I joined the conventional powertrain development, I was so surprised at the difference. So, I am trying to accelerate the improvements of the conventional powertrain mpg." We will be watching to see the results.

Our calculations:
13,500 miles divided by mpg = gallons used per year
Current Camry: 13,500 / 28 = 482 gallons
Current Prius: 13,500 / 50 = 270 gallons
+5 MPG Camry: 13,500 / 33 = 409 gallons, which represents 73 gallons saved per year
+5 MPG Prius: 13,500 / 55 = 245 gallons, or 25 gallons saved
404,886 Camrys sold in 2012 x 73 gallons saved per year = 29.6 million gallons saved
147,507 Priuses sold in 2012 x 25 gallons saved = 3.7 million gallons saved

http://green.autoblog.com/2013/11/18...-fools-errand/

spwolf

seems like pretty stupid article from "green" website.

Hoovey689

iTrader: (16)

aren't they all

nabbun

That is pretty interesting. Improvements in battery technology and light weight materials used in the construction of the vehicles will bring the biggest jumps in MPG gained.

CK6Speed

iTrader: (1)

As a Camry owner, it would be nice if Toyota improved its average MPG's by 5 MPG. It also would appeal to more car buyers as most are interested in better fuel economy for their cars, but many are not interests in the Prius. I don't see anything wrong with concentrating more of your efforts on your bread and butter cars vs your specialty cars.

SteVTEC

Hybrids are already a tough sell as it is. It's just as much about image if not even moreso than it is about making financial sense for hybrid buyers, per some recent studies. If the FE of regular vehicles improved another 5 mpg it would make even less financial sense for hybrids, and an even more difficult sell except for 'image' buyers. You know they're playing games like this. Same for the "all or nothing" approach to powertrain selections here in the U.S. "Can barely get out of its own way" or "way more power than you could ever use". Why can't we get "just right"?

spwolf

really? Hybrids are growing 3x faster than the market in USA...


Toyota is going to produce well over 1.5 million this year alone.

spwolf

there is this car called Camry Hybrid... it improves the average by 13 MPG.

SteVTEC

Yeah fastest growing segment of a still tiny segment. If you sell three cars and then you sell 9, you can say that sales tripled and have the fastest rate of growth in the industry. But you still only sold 9 cars.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe...ticle15353051/

200,000 mile "break-even" point on the Camry Hybrid. My folks bout a regular 2012 4-cylinder model instead.

If the cost came way down and the break-even point could be made within a few short years, hybrids would sell in far greater numbers. Politics, regulations, image are leading the way for hybrids. Making actual financial sense is way down the list here. Most hybrids don't.

bitkahuna

iTrader: (20)

why? their math seems pretty sound to me. punch line: if hybrids are really about green, they're not saving as much gas as improving the camry would.

increasing sales from 1-2 is 100% increase.

that's globally, right?

prius: we make ugly and slow popular.

TRDFantasy

Writing an article like this was a fool's errand.

Absolutely no common sense in this article .

spwolf

Yes, 1.5 million per year is tiny... it may pass complete worldwide BMW sales this year. 1.5 million in Toyota hybrid sales for 2013 will pass many manufacturers total sales such as Mazda, Subaru, etc, etc. And Toyota doesnt even have full hybrid lineup yet... that should come by 2015-2016.


As to your nonsense about payoff, it is really funny considering you drive a diesel.

SteVTEC

LULZ! (oh boy here we go! )

Our X5 35d was CHEAPER than a comparably equipped 35i.

So it paid for itself as soon as I drove it out of the dealership, on top of the fact that my wife and I both liked how it drove better than the 35i. It's tough to argue against 420 ft-lbs of torque AND better fuel economy, AND a lower price!

Okay that was enabled by BMW marketing/sales support via incentives. How bout a different example.

Compare a BMW 328i to a 328d.

The 328d costs $1300 more than the 328i (same levels of equipment) but has annual fuel savings of $500 vs the 328i, and thus the break even is less than 3 years and under 50,000 miles. Not many many many years, and many hundreds of thousands of miles. THREE years.

This is why I've been a huge fan of diesels for so long, and am so enthusiastic about seeing a lot more of them here in the U.S. Their cost delta over a naturally aspirated or turbo petrol powertrain is typically less than half of what a hybrid costs, yet there's still a huge jump in fuel economy, and the break even is far sooner. On top of all that, the torque is awesome and they drive wonderfully. The figures above are off of fueleconomy.gov (run by the U.S. EPA) and doesn't even take into account the fact that EPA methodology tends to overestimate petrol engine economy while underestimating diesel engine economy.



If Toyota offered a turbodiesel 4-cylinder in the Camry for $2k more than the regular model that would get their highway mileage well into the 40 mpg range as the 328d does with a break even at 3 years, I guarantee you that they'd have bought it. They do mostly highway driving, where diesels especially shine. They skipped the Hybrid as it would never have paid off.

bitkahuna

iTrader: (20)

of course diesel gas in many places is 20% more expensive than regular though

nabbun

I actually bought my CT200h to be different. There aren't many modded CTs as there are IS and even the GS. Secondary reason was fuel economy. It's nice not having to spend $60 to fill up every few days to spending $28 every week or week and a half