Gas prices...
09-26-13, 06:34 PM
#452
Out of Warranty
Good news! At the supply level, we're looking at plentiful fuel stocks, a flat consumer market, and cheaper winter gasoline blends driving down the cost of gasoline.
The threat of a major hurricane damaging rigs and refineries on the Gulf Coast is receding daily as the end of hurricane season approaches. Don't look now, but statistically we're out of the woods. Now if we can maintain our OPEC supplies, continue to grow our offshore and tar sands recovery, as well as the Northern tier and Texas oil shale production through the winter, we shouldn't see a major bump in prices until spring.
Of course, that's all speculation - but at this point, it's all we have. Just wait until Syria blows up in our faces . . . .
The threat of a major hurricane damaging rigs and refineries on the Gulf Coast is receding daily as the end of hurricane season approaches. Don't look now, but statistically we're out of the woods. Now if we can maintain our OPEC supplies, continue to grow our offshore and tar sands recovery, as well as the Northern tier and Texas oil shale production through the winter, we shouldn't see a major bump in prices until spring.
Of course, that's all speculation - but at this point, it's all we have. Just wait until Syria blows up in our faces . . . .
09-27-13, 08:41 AM
#453
Lexus Fanatic
Of course, that's all speculation - but at this point, it's all we have. Just wait until Syria blows up in our faces . . . .
09-30-13, 12:13 AM
#454
Out of Warranty
We haven't seen a major hurricane in US waters this year, and the experts are saying that October storms, while still possible, are extremely rare. That doesn't mean we CAN'T have one, but the odds are falling every day. http://blog.chron.com/weather/2013/0...eason-is-over/
Overseas, Iran is in a real bind - despite being a large producer of hydrocarbons. Ever since the "Islamic Revolution", Iran's industry has been going downhill. There were several reasons for this: 1. the American and European ex-pats who literally ran Iran's industrial complex fled; 2. with them, the educated class, including practically all of the engineers and specialty technicians, not to mention doctors, professors, and business people. 3. the nation turned Stalinist in its purges of the intelligentsia, either executing them or placing them in such difficult circumstances, they escaped.
They are left with an energy industry that has had to fall back on relatively crude 1950's technology. While they still have massive reservoirs of oil underground, their Soviet-style management tactics don't allow it to be produced efficiently - and rank amateurs and holy men poking around with the valves may have permanently damaged producing zones, seriously reducing the amount of recoverable reserves.
Then there's the problem of refining capacity. Third-world nations learned early on that just having oil is no guarantee of riches. Refining and chemical processing are the value-adding industries that make all that crude pay off in a big way. But the "brain drain" that took place in the oilfields of Iran, also took place in the process plants - and now while they still have crude to sell (were it not for sanctions), their profits wouldn't be nearly so great as they would for the sale of gasoline and refined products.
Iran has been reduced to sending out its crude to have it refined into motor gasoline and other refined products. They get pretty miserable prices for their crude since it is technically being smuggled out of the country, and they're paying big bucks for refined products that are being smuggled in. Either way, Iran is taking it in the neck.
The worst part of Iran's energy picture is that it has to subsidize gas for their domestic market, even at the inflated prices the government is paying for it just to get their hands on gasoline for an already grumbling public. Right now every gallon of gas that gets to the man on the streets of Tehran, it's coming soaked in bales of dollars. That can't go on for long.
The farce being played by their military, rolling out new super-weapons almost monthly is still a part of the charade being played for public consumption in Iran. Paper-machete rockets, fake drones, and a handful of ancient but crudely refurbed US fighters, hasn't impressed the defense strategists, no matter how it plays to the Iranian mobs. Syria has been nothing but a resource drain on Iran at this point, so don't look for either nation to be players in any coming attempts at crude embargoes.
On the plus side for US consumers, between discovery of new reservoirs, and advancing technology making formerly uneconomic regions suddenly major producers, we're back in the oil business here in the USofA. With new offshore fields coming on stream, new discoveries in Texas and western North Dakota, not to mention conservation over on the demand side, our imports are down dramatically over the past 15 years. We're nowhere near energy independence, but we are now producing over half of our crude consumption here at home . . . for the first time since 1997. The last three years have shown a real upward spike, suppressed only by our confused energy policy and a rapidly changing set of allies in the Middle East.
Example: Today my wife saw a local gas station selling UL for $2.99/gal. That probably won't last long, but it's a hopeful sign.
Overseas, Iran is in a real bind - despite being a large producer of hydrocarbons. Ever since the "Islamic Revolution", Iran's industry has been going downhill. There were several reasons for this: 1. the American and European ex-pats who literally ran Iran's industrial complex fled; 2. with them, the educated class, including practically all of the engineers and specialty technicians, not to mention doctors, professors, and business people. 3. the nation turned Stalinist in its purges of the intelligentsia, either executing them or placing them in such difficult circumstances, they escaped.
They are left with an energy industry that has had to fall back on relatively crude 1950's technology. While they still have massive reservoirs of oil underground, their Soviet-style management tactics don't allow it to be produced efficiently - and rank amateurs and holy men poking around with the valves may have permanently damaged producing zones, seriously reducing the amount of recoverable reserves.
Then there's the problem of refining capacity. Third-world nations learned early on that just having oil is no guarantee of riches. Refining and chemical processing are the value-adding industries that make all that crude pay off in a big way. But the "brain drain" that took place in the oilfields of Iran, also took place in the process plants - and now while they still have crude to sell (were it not for sanctions), their profits wouldn't be nearly so great as they would for the sale of gasoline and refined products.
Iran has been reduced to sending out its crude to have it refined into motor gasoline and other refined products. They get pretty miserable prices for their crude since it is technically being smuggled out of the country, and they're paying big bucks for refined products that are being smuggled in. Either way, Iran is taking it in the neck.
The worst part of Iran's energy picture is that it has to subsidize gas for their domestic market, even at the inflated prices the government is paying for it just to get their hands on gasoline for an already grumbling public. Right now every gallon of gas that gets to the man on the streets of Tehran, it's coming soaked in bales of dollars. That can't go on for long.
The farce being played by their military, rolling out new super-weapons almost monthly is still a part of the charade being played for public consumption in Iran. Paper-machete rockets, fake drones, and a handful of ancient but crudely refurbed US fighters, hasn't impressed the defense strategists, no matter how it plays to the Iranian mobs. Syria has been nothing but a resource drain on Iran at this point, so don't look for either nation to be players in any coming attempts at crude embargoes.
On the plus side for US consumers, between discovery of new reservoirs, and advancing technology making formerly uneconomic regions suddenly major producers, we're back in the oil business here in the USofA. With new offshore fields coming on stream, new discoveries in Texas and western North Dakota, not to mention conservation over on the demand side, our imports are down dramatically over the past 15 years. We're nowhere near energy independence, but we are now producing over half of our crude consumption here at home . . . for the first time since 1997. The last three years have shown a real upward spike, suppressed only by our confused energy policy and a rapidly changing set of allies in the Middle East.
Example: Today my wife saw a local gas station selling UL for $2.99/gal. That probably won't last long, but it's a hopeful sign.
Last edited by Lil4X; 09-30-13 at 12:17 AM.
09-30-13, 03:59 AM
#455
I saw 3.10 in Fairview Tennesse, a semi-rural "suburb". I live in Nashville near Percy Priest Lake in Donelson, the station I usually fill up at was 3.25 for regular. I think it was 3.70 for premium for the Lexus.
Really there is no incentive for oil companies to lower their prices if their fixed costs remain the same globally. I sometimes think their is collusion in the oil industry, because oil is no longer a "Beverly Hillbillies" commodity. IE it requires specialized knowledge and equipment to extract oil now days.
The days from the 1970's southwestern Ohio oil boom are gone. My great aunt was making a decent chunk of change in the 1970's in Hocking county OH allowing an oil well to be drilled in her pasture. She had free natural gas to heat her home until a few years ago. That oil well might have made her $100,000 back in the 70's to mid 80's, but that is all dried up now, she had to pay a few thousand to have that well capped and the equipment hauled off.
Really there is no incentive for oil companies to lower their prices if their fixed costs remain the same globally. I sometimes think their is collusion in the oil industry, because oil is no longer a "Beverly Hillbillies" commodity. IE it requires specialized knowledge and equipment to extract oil now days.
The days from the 1970's southwestern Ohio oil boom are gone. My great aunt was making a decent chunk of change in the 1970's in Hocking county OH allowing an oil well to be drilled in her pasture. She had free natural gas to heat her home until a few years ago. That oil well might have made her $100,000 back in the 70's to mid 80's, but that is all dried up now, she had to pay a few thousand to have that well capped and the equipment hauled off.
Last edited by Aron9000; 09-30-13 at 04:24 AM.
09-30-13, 06:29 AM
#457
Forum Administrator
iTrader: (2)
09-30-13, 07:07 AM
#458
Sometimes things make little sense to me.IF I buy or lease for $500 a month a $50,000+ car that runs Hi Octane only. I don't care what fuel costs.
http://www.edmunds.com/lexus/ls-460/...tyle=200431708
Last edited by JerryT; 09-30-13 at 07:11 AM.
09-30-13, 07:18 AM
#459
Except when buying Cars that take a $16,000 hit in one year. Thats a LOT of fuel!!
Sometimes things make little sense to me.IF I buy or lease for $500 a month a $50,000+ car that runs Hi Octane only. I don't care what fuel costs.
http://www.edmunds.com/lexus/ls-460/...tyle=200431708
Sometimes things make little sense to me.IF I buy or lease for $500 a month a $50,000+ car that runs Hi Octane only. I don't care what fuel costs.
http://www.edmunds.com/lexus/ls-460/...tyle=200431708
There's a lot more to the price of gasoline than a number. International politics and nations made or broken upon the barrel. It's the driving force behind many if not most international diplomatic incidents.
You thought Syria was about chemical weapons? No. It's about the US and Russia fighting over maintaining Russia's access to Syrian oil, and their stranglehold on the European natural gas market by preventing a pipeline being built through Syria.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...ops-Syria.html
09-30-13, 07:30 AM
#460
Forum Administrator
iTrader: (2)
Except when buying Cars that take a $16,000 hit in one year. Thats a LOT of fuel!!
Sometimes things make little sense to me.IF I buy or lease for $500 a month a $50,000+ car that runs Hi Octane only. I don't care what fuel costs.
http://www.edmunds.com/lexus/ls-460/...tyle=200431708
Sometimes things make little sense to me.IF I buy or lease for $500 a month a $50,000+ car that runs Hi Octane only. I don't care what fuel costs.
http://www.edmunds.com/lexus/ls-460/...tyle=200431708
I usually don't and go for the Lexus CPO cars a year or two old because of that exact reason.There is similar logic that some people apply when buying a normal gas powered car vs a hybrid; the added cost often doesn't save money over the life of the ownership of the vehicle.
It the little cents don't make sense to you that's fine... for you.. Like many others, I like to track both my dollars and my pennies and will take time to fill up in SC when driving from Atlanta to Charlotte where the gas is .30 cheaper per gallon.
09-30-13, 02:57 PM
#461
I'd say don't buy or lease a new car if that initial depreciation hit bothers you I usually don't and go for the Lexus CPO cars a year or two old because of that exact reason.
There is similar logic that some people apply when buying a normal gas powered car vs a hybrid; the added cost often doesn't save money over the life of the ownership of the vehicle.
It the little cents don't make sense to you that's fine... for you.. Like many others, I like to track both my dollars and my pennies and will take time to fill up in SC when driving from Atlanta to Charlotte where the gas is .30 cheaper per gallon.
I usually don't and go for the Lexus CPO cars a year or two old because of that exact reason.There is similar logic that some people apply when buying a normal gas powered car vs a hybrid; the added cost often doesn't save money over the life of the ownership of the vehicle.
It the little cents don't make sense to you that's fine... for you.. Like many others, I like to track both my dollars and my pennies and will take time to fill up in SC when driving from Atlanta to Charlotte where the gas is .30 cheaper per gallon.
If I had to choose between the FX and RX I probably would go with the RX for the money. But I wish Lexus would make it a little meaner (ala masculine) looking...Like the GS450s.
Toyota likes the softer look like the Solara, RX, Camry, The ES350 is beginning to look really nice and un Camry like. Nissan is bold in their design (and sales indicate the same) LOL.
They don't play it safe. Cube? Juke? and the CVT is not my kind of drive train. Still like Rear wheel drive though. But it don't snow here.
Yeah sometimes it is hard to make sense of cents. But that's why there is a word called "rationalization"
09-26-14, 01:32 PM
#462
Lexus Test Driver
I hear the price of gas might be going down soon in the US.
Here is what Montrealers are paying right now for regular and premium is usually about 10-15% more:
per Litre (CAD)
Canada Tax $0.10
Provincial Tax $0.20
City Tax $0.03
Federal Sales Tax 5%
Provincial Sales Tax 9.75%
Total (w/o all taxes) $0.965
Total (w/ all taxes) $1.44
per Gallon (USD)
Canada Tax $0.34
Provincial Tax $0.68
City Tax $0.10
Federal Sales Tax 5%
Provincial Sales Tax 9.75%
Total (w/o all taxes) $3.29
Total (w/ all taxes) $4.91
So as you can see we got flat rate taxes and still need to deal with the sales tax
Here is what Montrealers are paying right now for regular and premium is usually about 10-15% more:
per Litre (CAD)
Canada Tax $0.10
Provincial Tax $0.20
City Tax $0.03
Federal Sales Tax 5%
Provincial Sales Tax 9.75%
Total (w/o all taxes) $0.965
Total (w/ all taxes) $1.44
per Gallon (USD)
Canada Tax $0.34
Provincial Tax $0.68
City Tax $0.10
Federal Sales Tax 5%
Provincial Sales Tax 9.75%
Total (w/o all taxes) $3.29
Total (w/ all taxes) $4.91
So as you can see we got flat rate taxes and still need to deal with the sales tax
09-26-14, 03:34 PM
#464
Lexus Fanatic
iTrader: (20)
$4.91 regular? it was $3.22 here (about 50% cheaper) when i got it today.
