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Old 08-28-17 | 12:28 PM
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Originally Posted by SW15LS
I'm not disagreeing with you about the hand dealt to younger people or the much higher cost of housing, but it is what it is. To say "the vast majority of millennials will never be able to own a home" is a really pessimistic view that I think is way overblown. Millennials age from 18-35/36. To say this group of people that have another potentially 70-80 years to live will "never own a home because of student loans and high home prices" is a statement that I just don't see as reality. My parents didn't own a home until they were in their late 40s.

To say NEVER? If they are willing to work hard, make good pragmatic choices about where they want to live, what they want to do, how to prepare and plan for it I have no doubt the vast majority of those millions of millennials will have the opportunity in their lifetime to buy a home. Perhaps not as a freelance writer or food blogger, perhaps not in SoHo or Georgetown, but they can certainly buy a nice home someplace in their lives if they want to.
You need to have a bit more realistic expectations. Sure, there are going to be successful millennials who are going to earn a lot of $ and be able to afford whatever, but many more are going to be working regular jobs earning median wages. They will NEVER be able to afford homes, not unless the housing market has a crash of biblical proportion. This was not the case for the boomers generation, when housing prices were proportional to wages. Many boomers who worked regular jobs such as teachers, firemen, postal and sanitation workers earned average pay but were able to purchase houses, often even multi family houses that earned them extra rental income. They are now selling these houses, that are often very deteriorated, for tenfold what they purchased them for and retiring comfortably to Florida. This won't be the case for millennials - vast majority of them wont be able to buy homes, and when they age they won't have a house to sell to provide for comfortable retirement. Yet, they will pay taxes throughout their lives to provide retirement to a bunch of greedy boomers.
Old 08-28-17 | 12:35 PM
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Originally Posted by SW15LS
Yeah SF bay area, yikes. I was out in CA a couple years ago at a property management conference (35% of my business is that) and I met a lot of managers and real estate agents from the SF bay area. Crazy expensive.

Its really different than it was before the meltdown, the biggest difference is qualification of borrowers. Before the meltdown plain and simple, people were being given mortgages they could not actually afford. Fraud was happening, people were victims of predatory lending. We had these 3-2-1 buy downs where people were qualified on a low 3% below market rate that would step in over 3 years, well...no duh the people couldn't make the payments when it got to the full rate...3% has a HUGE impact on the payment. Stated income loans, crazy.

I bought my house in 2007. I kid you not, nobody asked me for one bank statement...not one tax return, not anything. I did not seek out a no doc loan either, they just didn't care. Like buying a car.

It is TOTALLY unlike that now. Income has to be documented in a very strict way, borrowers are underwritten thoroughly and vetted. You can find stated or alt doc (meaning they will document say bank statements instead of tax returns) loans, but they are not mainstream nor will they ever be again. That will always be a weird pseudo hard money portfolio deal. 99.9% of all loans involve a thorough income and asset verification process, thats not going to change.

Even with lower down payments, if you have good borrowers with good credit and good jobs, they're not walking away from their homes, and in any event...thats what mortgage insurance is for. The MI insures the loan against default...you have MI on ANY loan with a less than 80% LTV, whether you pay it monthly or if its LPMI (lender paid mortgage insurance) its built into the rate.

So no, we are not headed for that sort of thing again.
One thing that I had come across is that people who work for mortgage cos. now need to pass an exam to get their NMLS#--imho prior, they were like used car salesmen. When I bought my house in 2002, I told a mortgage broker I'm going with today Santander, because they are doing a 80% loan and a 10% loan so I don't have to pay PMI, the 10% loan is 1% higher amortized for 15 years (basically a heloc). He said why? PMI is a good thing, and you're better off financing 90% at a lower rate and paying PMI because "you will never, ever, be able to pay off the 10% loan and you'll be stuck for 15 years." hahahahahahahahahahahaaa It did take me about 3 yrs.....but just the things they would say to get the loan....PMI is a good thing, let's all remember that, it's good for the lender!
Old 08-28-17 | 12:35 PM
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Originally Posted by jwong77
Wow, this was a fascinating and interesting thread. Since I live in the SF Bay Area, 1M homes are the norm, not the exception. Its scary to hear what SW15LS is saying, because it sounds a lot like what we were doing before the mortgage meltdown, or at least it feels like we're on the same slippery slope. Since folks need to put so little down on their home purchases, will they not be inclined to simply walk away if home prices drop substantially?
I don't really think anybody will be walking out, because people still need somewhere to live. And rents today are often higher than mortgage payments.
Old 08-28-17 | 12:38 PM
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Originally Posted by JDR76
^^^ I was just thinking about this.

I am not a millennial (currently age 40). I bought my first house in 2006. We just bought a new house this past spring. I felt like everything was different. I had to provide way more documentation than I did back in 2006, even though I am significantly more qualified now than I was then. The appraisal process was different as well.

Now my wife and I are hoping we don't have to do that again for another 20-30 years.
Same here, we bought a new house last year and it took almost 5 months from the day we put our offer in til the day we closed. The approval process with the bank was ridiculous, they wanted documentation for everything.
Old 08-28-17 | 12:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Och
What?! NYC alone is about 9 million people, which is about 3% of US population. More if you count undocumented immigrants.
Sorry dropped a zero in the formula when doing the calculation at 4am It's 7.9% (26M out of ~330M) for the 10 largest cities, which incidentally includes all US cities with populations of 1M or more. Goes up to about 19% (63.8M) if you include all of the top 100, and 28% (93M) for the top 300, but by that point you're including towns with only 100k residents. Still a minuscule minority of the overall US population.

To put things into perspective for you, Illinois is the 5th most populous state. There are about a half million more residents (9.1M) of Illinois who do NOT live in its three largest cities--Chicago (2.7M), Aurora (201k), Rockford (148k)--than there are in NYC, the most populous city in the US by a factor of 2 (LA is next at 3.9M).

Originally Posted by Och
Provided that you were way off in the first part of your post, you're probably way off in the 2nd part as well.
Nope, no calculations there. Straight quotes from a research study. You can read it yourself at the link. The conclusion holds.

Last edited by geko29; 08-28-17 at 01:10 PM.
Old 08-28-17 | 12:45 PM
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There are plenty of cheap Podunk homes, but I don't think millennials can afford to go that route because it would be a tiresome commute to work.
I mean look at socal, if you go far east to palm desert or apple valley, there are super cheap homes. But who wants to live there?

Maybe when more and more jobs shift to telecommuting, podunk suburbs will be more attractive.
Old 08-28-17 | 12:49 PM
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Originally Posted by geko29
Sorry dropped a zero in the formula when doing the calculation at 4am It's 7.9% (26M out of ~330M) for the 10 largest cities. Still a minuscule minority of the overall US population.

Nope, no calculations there. Straight quotes from a research study. You can read it yourself at the link. The conclusion holds.
[/QUOTE]

You're just wrong.
​​​​​​​
https://www.citylab.com/equity/2012/...lly-mean/1589/
Old 08-28-17 | 01:07 PM
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Originally Posted by JDR76
^^^ I was just thinking about this.

I am not a millennial (currently age 40). I bought my first house in 2006. We just bought a new house this past spring. I felt like everything was different. I had to provide way more documentation than I did back in 2006, even though I am significantly more qualified now than I was then. The appraisal process was different as well.

Now my wife and I are hoping we don't have to do that again for another 20-30 years.
Its totally different. Its constantly changing too, its actually gotten a little bit better over the last few months. The quality of your lender makes a huge difference, bad lenders with slow off site, out of state underwriting divisions...nightmare. Thats why I don't use big institutional lenders as I mentioned before, they're that way. Small trim local lenders are the way to go.

If you are traditionally employed its fairly straightforward, what gets real hairy is if you're self employed or something like that. My favorite story was a couple years ago I had a client who had loaned her daughter $1,500. Well, the daughter paid it back while she was in the process of getting her loan. Nightmare, had to get letters about what it was, bank statements from the daughter showing the money coming out of her account. She waited tables so lots of cash deposits. Oh my God, nightmare. If that hadn't been with one of my really good lenders no joke it likely would have killed the deal. That sort of thing is just ridiculous.

Originally Posted by Johnhav430
One thing that I had come across is that people who work for mortgage cos. now need to pass an exam to get their NMLS#--imho prior, they were like used car salesmen. When I bought my house in 2002, I told a mortgage broker I'm going with today Santander, because they are doing a 80% loan and a 10% loan so I don't have to pay PMI, the 10% loan is 1% higher amortized for 15 years (basically a heloc). He said why? PMI is a good thing, and you're better off financing 90% at a lower rate and paying PMI because "you will never, ever, be able to pay off the 10% loan and you'll be stuck for 15 years." hahahahahahahahahahahaaa It did take me about 3 yrs.....but just the things they would say to get the loan....PMI is a good thing, let's all remember that, it's good for the lender!
LOL, so ridiculous.

Originally Posted by Och
Same here, we bought a new house last year and it took almost 5 months from the day we put our offer in til the day we closed. The approval process with the bank was ridiculous, they wanted documentation for everything.
5 Months??!?! You had a terrible lender. Any average lender can get a regular loan closed in 30 days. Great lenders can do it in 2 weeks. More complex loans with self employed borrowers, etc...30-45 days at the most or the lender is just incompetent. I hardly ever have a transaction settle in more than 30 days. Hardly ever.

Last edited by SW17LS; 08-28-17 at 01:11 PM.
Old 08-28-17 | 01:13 PM
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I hate to admit it, but I'm 34, and I fall in the cliché millennial category-not mad or nothing, just funny how it got categorized, and the data does indeed show it.

I bought my first home in 2010, and honestly looking to move to a larger home in the East Chula Vista foothills ('burbs) lol. I also have a few cars, but would honestly love a Toyota Land Cruiser.
Old 08-28-17 | 01:21 PM
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Originally Posted by SW15LS
5 Months??!?! You had a terrible lender. Any average lender can get a regular loan closed in 30 days. Great lenders can do it in 2 weeks. More complex loans with self employed borrowers, etc...30-45 days at the most or the lender is just incompetent. I hardly ever have a transaction settle in more than 30 days. Hardly ever.
We went with Wells Fargo, and yes it took a bit over 4 months.
Old 08-28-17 | 01:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Och
You need to have a bit more realistic expectations.
No, I really don't. Sorry, but I just don't agree with you at all. We are coming at this from two diametrically opposed ways of looking at the world. I don't buy into the victim mentality, and I don't buy into the idea that anybody is in a situation from which they cannot get to a better place. My own life experience and what I've seen others accomplish just makes it impossible for me to be that defeatist and negative.

Yeah, much of this generation has been handed a hard hand to play from. They have student loans, their careers got off to a rocky start, housing prices are really high. Life's tough. When confronted with that reality what do you do? Do you retreat into your parents basement and say "I'll never own a house!" "poor me!" "why bother!" or do you get out there and get to work to better your life? If you're the former, then you know what? You don't deserve to own a home and you should just stay in your parents basement. I think more millennials are like the latter than you think.

Cant make a living doing what you went to school for? Do something else. Do you think I grew up wanting to be a real estate agent? Do you think my dad grew up wanting to be a paper salesman? You think my mother wanted to be an accountant and go on to file medical claims for doctors? You think my business partner wanted to manage property for people? No, none of us wanted to be these things. But, they were opportunities, we were good at what we did, and we found our way.

Have high student loans? Pay them off. Go to work, get a second job, don't buy a $50,000 Lexus, work hard and pay them off so they aren't around your neck. Put them on a 10 year term and just do it.

Housing prices too high where you are? Move someplace else. Look at ways to telecommute and/or be willing to commute further than you want to.

There is no situation in my experience that you cannot work your way out of. If you want something, work for it. Plan for it. These underemployed, indebted millennials you describe CAN improve their situations and buy homes, I have no doubt about it. Not as easy as it was for boomers no, but because it was easier for boomers isn't an excuse millennials should use not to make the most they can out of their own lives in their own situations.

Sure, there are going to be successful millennials who are going to earn a lot of $ and be able to afford whatever, but many more are going to be working regular jobs earning median wages. They will NEVER be able to afford homes, not unless the housing market has a crash of biblical proportion. This was not the case for the boomers generation, when housing prices were proportional to wages. Many boomers who worked regular jobs such as teachers, firemen, postal and sanitation workers earned average pay but were able to purchase houses, often even multi family houses that earned them extra rental income.
LOL, I don't know what to tell you. I help teachers, firemen, postal workers, police officers buy homes in the DC area all the time. Next week I have a settlement, both buyers are millennial teachers. Guess what the sellers do who are selling the home they're buying? They're millennial teachers. I had 3 police officers I helped last year. One of those he is a police officer and she's a teacher! Millennials. I helped them sell their condo and buy a new TH because they were having a second baby. So...they were buying their SECOND home...police officer and teacher in metro DC. No help from their folks either, in fact his dad screwed him by selling him their condo which he lost his shirt on. What did he do? He worked overtime and paid it down to where they could get out from under it while setting aside some money for a minimum downpayment on the next place. He made it work.

What you are saying and the reality I'm living just do not match.

Last edited by SW17LS; 08-28-17 at 01:33 PM.
Old 08-28-17 | 01:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Och
We went with Wells Fargo, and yes it took a bit over 4 months.
Yep, like I said terrible lender. I would never use Wells Fargo.
Old 08-28-17 | 01:32 PM
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Originally Posted by SW15LS
No, I really don't. Sorry, but I just don't agree with you at all. We are coming at this from two diametrically opposed ways of looking at the world. I don't buy into the victim mentality, and I don't buy into the idea that anybody is in a situation from which they cannot get to a better place. My own life experience and what I've seen others accomplish just makes it impossible for me to be that defeatist and negative.

Yeah, much of this generation has been handed a hard hand to play from. They have student loans, their careers got off to a rocky start, housing prices are really high. Life's tough. When confronted with that reality what do you do? Do you retreat into your parents basement and say "I'll never own a house!" "poor me!" "why bother!" or do you get out there and get to work to better your life? If you're the former, then you know what? You don't deserve to own a home and you should just stay in your parents basement. I think more millennials are like the latter than you think.

Cant make a living doing what you went to school for? Do something else. Do you think I grew up wanting to be a real estate agent? Do you think my dad grew up wanting to be a paper salesman? You think my mother wanted to be an accountant and go on to file medical claims for doctors? You think my business partner wanted to manage property for people? No, none of us wanted to be these things. But, they were opportunities, we were good at what we did, and we found our way.

Have high student loans? Pay them off. Go to work, get a second job, don't buy a $50,000 Lexus, work hard and pay them off so they aren't around your neck. Put them on a 10 year term and just do it.

Housing prices too high where you are? Move someplace else. Look at ways to telecommute and/or be willing to commute further than you want to.

There is no situation in my experience that you cannot work your way out of. If you want something, work for it. Plan for it. These underemployed, indebted millennials you describe CAN improve their situations and buy homes, I have no doubt about it. Not as easy as it was for boomers no, but because it was easier for boomers isn't an excuse millennials should use not to make the most they can out of their own lives in their own situations.



LOL, I don't know what to tell you. I help teachers, firemen, postal workers, police officers buy homes in the DC area all the time. Next week I have a settlement, both buyers are millennial teachers. Guess what the sellers do who are selling the home they're buying? They're millennial teachers. I had 3 police officers I helped last year. One of those he is a police officer and she's a teacher! Millennials. I helped them sell their condo and buy a new TH because they were having a second baby. So...they were buying their SECOND home...police officer and teacher in metro DC.

What you are saying and the reality I'm living just do not match.
We can agree to disagree, but once again, statistics do not lie. Nobody with median income is able to buy in urban areas without some kind of family help or other cash infusion.
Old 08-28-17 | 01:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Och
We can agree to disagree, but once again, statistics do not lie. Nobody with median income is able to buy in urban areas without some kind of family help or other cash infusion.
I'm helping them every day do just that in an expensive urban area...but you believe what you want.

And people have been helping their kids with downpayment for houses since there were houses to buy. Believe it or not, even many boomers got help from their parents when they bought their first houses too.
Old 08-28-17 | 01:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Och
Read past the first two sentences of your own article, because the author's intent is to prove my point. Included in "urban areas" for the purposes of reaching those census figures are towns with at least 2,500 residents!

But 2,500 people is hardly what we'd think of as a city, or even 5,000 for that matter. Let's say we decided to call places with 20,000 residents or less small towns. Of the 3,573 urban areas in the U.S. (both urbanized areas and urban clusters), 2,706 of them are small towns, by this definition. That's 75.7 percent. If roughly 80 percent of our population is urban, roughly 80 percent of our urban areas are actually small towns.
You said the vast majority of people live in large cities like NYC. This statement is true if your definition of "large cities like NYC" includes towns like Bellvue, Iowa, population 2,543--a town which is so small it has neither a McDonald's nor a Starbucks. However, if you look at the actual population numbers of large cities, which can be found here or here, you'll see that my numbers are accurate.

Last edited by geko29; 08-28-17 at 01:49 PM.


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