mmarshall

We've had a bunch of scattered references, through the Car Chat threads, about the questionable future, at least in the American market, of traditional full-size sedans......or what actually passes for full-sized these days, as traditional-full-sizers are all but extinct. While many buyers today are focused on SUVs, CUVs, minivans, and other crossovers, there are still some folks (mostly in the older age-brackets) who like bigger, traditional easy-riding luxury or upmarket sedans.....though that number is steadily diminishing. For those of us who still exist (or who are simply tired of small econoboxes, and want something more in the way of comfort), I thought I'd do a new, separate thread for discussion focusing on specifically that subject.

First, to be clear, I think it needs to be said that high-performance full-sizers, like the Dodge Charger/ Chrysler 300 Hemi/SRT, Ford Taurus SHO, Chevrolet SS, and some of the AMGs from Mercedes, Ms from BMW, and S/RS models from Audi are not in the general class I'm refering to. They are either a throwback to the American 60s muscle-car era, or prohibitively expensive (as in the case of the Germans), or, for whatever reason, simply appeal to a different group of buyers than the more bread-and-butter versions of these cars. Those who like the FWD Chevy Impala, for instance, are unlikely to be attracted to a RWD SS....and vice-versa.

And, of course, not all of the sedans in this category are (or are speculated to be) on the potential chopping-block. The Korean Genesis G80/G90 models are just really getting their act together with a generally new network of dealerships, shared in the same facilities as some (not all) Hyundai shops. and, on top of that, some handle only the G80 and not the G90, so you have to check each one). The Lexus LS, even with competition from Luxury SUVs, still shows every sign of hanging around with a new generation. The ES350 is one of the few upmarket/luxury sedans that still sells in good numbers, so it is not likely going anywhere, either.

But, for bigger sedans with traditional American-badges on them, it's a different story. The big GM plant at Detroit/Hamtramck, which produces the small Chevy Volt hybrid and the full-size Chevy Impala, Buick Lacrosse, and Cadillac CT6 has had extremely low production this year (my own Lacrosse was one of the few), and several cutbacks/layoffs. There is serious talk in GM management circles about shutting down all production of these vehicles, in a year or sot this plant, and (you guessed it).......converting the plant to trucks/SUVs, just like they did with the Arlington, TX plant in 1996, where the old Chevy Caprice/Impala SS/Buick Roadmaster/Cadillac Fleetwood was built. Those cars were also sacrificed to the altar of trucks and SUVs.......indeed, some of them are collector's items today at old-car shows. At Ford, the situation is not exactly the same, but more or less similar. The Ford Taurus may be on borrowed time....Ford marketers are not happy all with its recent sales. A lot of time and money was spent on the all-new 2017 Lincoln Continental and the latest 2017 MKZ refreshening, yet sales of both, outside of the limo-business, have also not been up to Ford's hopes. There are no immediate plans from Ford to drop them, but none of them are really guaranteed a bright future right now.

So.....what does all this mean? While none of us has a crystal ball (and I'm not necessarily trying to sound like I have one, either), I do think that it would be wise, if one is interested in this type of car, particularly with an American nameplate, to at least consider scooping one up from whatever is in dealer-stock or getting in your order for a brand-new one. In the dog-eat-dog world of the auto business, while it is sometimes true that good things come to him (or her) who waits, it is also true that (sometimes) he or she who hesitates is lost. Translation: get one of these products while they are still available. This is one of those cases where hesitation may not be in the buyer's potential best interests. I'd say, if you want something along these lines (a large American-badge sedan)....time to seriously consider starting your shopping. The slow-selling Hyundai Azera is already gone from the America market......more may follow.

Toys4RJill

I honestly do not believe Americans want large American sedans. For whatever it is, people just seem to reject them. I am thinking it is the badge.

I am willing to bet the older Toyota Avalon outsells the new LaCrosse or Impala. Perhaps both combined. I would rather get a ES over anything in this class.

It it is just bewildering that Cadillac does not have an ES350 that starts at the MSRP of the Lexus ES350

mmarshall

That's part of it. The main issue, though, is that SUVs, today, have a great powers of seduction...and people are responding with their wallets.

This thread, though, is for those who still appreciate traditional full-size and/or luxury sedans. I don't expect to get a huge number of responses, but I think there should be a thread for those who do want to respond.

I would, too, if ultimate reliability was the issue. But the ES competitors actually drive better than it in some ways. And the ES has a dated powertrain.

The whole gist of their recent (sedan) marketing was to go after the former RWD BMW crowd, not the people who were being and driving the ES.

Aron9000

Cars like the LaCrosse and CT6 might not be discontinued, but I am betting Marshall is right in them converting that Hamtramack factory to SUV/truck production. I'm betting with sedans being more popular in China, the LaCrosse and CT6 will be made in China and shipped over here. GM has already sold its soul to the devil, the Caddy CT6 hybrid is already made in China IIRC. Ford is talking about shifting next gen Focus production to China as well. As for the Impala, if there isn't a market for it in China, I see it getting the ax.

But hell, that's American values for you, shaft your workforce, its all about the stock price and keeping Wall Street happy.

Fizzboy7

There is a chance the full size American cars in question here will continue to evaporate. But that is simply the market dictating where things go and the disconnect of American companies to be competitive (especially Cadillac). I don't think warning people to "act now, before it's too late" is going to make any difference. The market is speaking, the public is aware of it, and even the traditionalist are moving to SUV's and/or Korean, Asian, and German import sedans. They like what they like and will buy where the trend and future is going.

KahnBB6

iTrader: (5)

The interesting thing to me is not every non-car enthusiast I talk to is only in favor of a "crossover" or SUV. A lot of non-car people still like sedans and five door hatchbacks. The issue is probably that significantly more non-car people are buying any kind of SUV, CUV or "crossover" than sedans and thus these are the numbers most manufacturers tend to see leading. Just as with niche options or models, this probably also has a lot to do with what is being pushed by dealers from their lot inventories.

It is likely there are still plenty of people who like midsize and maybe even full-size non-performance sedans... but they're both outnumbered by the SUV-ish buyers and they themselves are probably cross-shopping.

There's also some marketing prediction (ha!) theory I read yesterday that suggested the current obsession with SUV/crossovers may be supplanted in the future with another body style that doesn't resemble the kind of car people remember their parents driving. Possible but I think that's a mixed bag theory at best and predictions like those tend to be hit and miss in reality.

chromedome

I'd give a left kidney for a higher riding ES hybrid wagon but hey, I'm weird... It's interesting that EVs like the Leaf, Volt and Model 3 have a tall sedan stance, so the trend towards crossovers may reverse itself once EVs hit the mainstream. Then again, luxo barges like the Panamera and the new LS are all long, low and large, so that end of the market won't stray into taller body styles. It's just the midrange large sedan market that seems to have disappeared in favor of crossovers and SUVs.

bitkahuna

iTrader: (20)

epa def. of large car is interesting... includes the honda civic.

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/bycl...Cars2018.shtml

bitkahuna

iTrader: (20)

i don't think anyone needs to 'scoop one up' because even if production stops there will be lots around to buy.

but you mention 'large american-badge sedan' and then refer to the Korean Hyundai Azera.

perhaps your post is more a lament that large sedans are just not the mainstream vehicles today that they were 40+ years ago. they're a niche today but not going away - but yes, some models will. and yes, as you know, it's really been that long since the 'gas crisis', the start of the invasion of small japanese cars, and then korean, and next chinese and maybe indian...

mmarshall

Well, OK.....true to an extent. But my point was that we are likely to see what happened in 1996, when production of the Caprice/Roadmaster/Fleetwood was curtailed at Arlington, TX (the only plant producing them), so that the plant could be re-tooled for trucks and SUVs. And I did mention the possibility of looking for those in already stock, though, in some cases, like with my Lacrosse (with the better transmission) there were credible reasons for waiting and ordering a 2018.


I referred to it because it was finally discontinued after years of slow sales...and we are likely to see it happen to similar vehicles at Ford or GM. Less likely at Chrysler....the Charger and 300, though impacted by SUVs like most sedans, seem to have a much more solid buyer-base.


While I'll admit that I'm a personal fan of many of these cars (though, for many years, I avoided actually buying one for a number of reasons), I tried to do this thread objectively. I wasn't thinking of myself, but of others. This is a branch of the auto industry that, today, is under significant threat, and may not be around much longer to the extent that we have today. The auto industry does not operate according to the opinions of just a few (unless you're a CEO or executive LOL)....vehicles have to sell in significant numbers to stay in production. Indeed, that is why we don't see cars like the MR2, Celica, S2000, Prelude, 240SX, Eclipse, etc.....around any more in the American market. While dearly loved by the auto press and a small group of niche-enthusiasts, after about 2000 or so, they simply were not widely accepted by the public at large. The Miata (and Spider) are just about the only survivors.....because they sell.

mmarshall

EPA size-ratings, IMO, are next to worthless. They determine a size-class by interior volume, not exterior dimensions. Take the Honda Fit, for example. It is clearly a subcompact (B-class) car on the outside, but, inside, has a whopping 93 cubic feet of passenger/cargo space.

Toys4RJill

I agree. I don't think anyone needs to scoop any of these models up. The Impala still sells something like 70K units per year, but for a brand new model, the Buick LaCrosse sales are just dreadful. GM was offering 20% off in the summer for a brand new redesigned model, that type of discount is unheard for a new model. Although I really like the new LaCrosse it appears as though it is a dud, kinda like a new blockbuster movie that people just don't go to watch. I still stand by the notion that the OP might have buyers remorse.

mmarshall

Yes, sedan production is likely to shift to China (Buick already has a huge market there...80% of its sales)...but whether they actually ship those vehicles back here to the U.S. remains a open question. First, the auto manufacturers are probably not going to go through the expense of signing a contract with shipping companies to send these vehicles across the Pacific by boat (Hyundai/Kia, as I understand, is the only manufacturer that actually owns its own fleet of ships for transport) unless there is still significant demand here in the U.S. Second, although he has not actually it yet, Trump has already announced (and he campaigned on it) that he wants a 35% tariff on new vehicles sold here in the U.S. under American nameplates that are produced overseas. That could, obviously, start a classic trade-war. If that happens, either through an Executive order or Congressional action, it is going to drastically affect major parts of the American auto market.....not just large sedans. Prices will rise significantly.

Toys4RJill

This branch is not really under threat. People don't seem to want them

mmarshall

Well then, what else would you call it? If the future production of certain vehicles is in jeopardy because of low demand (from people not wanting them), that, IMO, fulfills the definition of the term.

And, of course, big upmarket sedans are not the only vehicles currently in jeopardy. When the 3-row Lexus RX-L debuts, I don't see much of a future for the American market Lexus GX, unless one still wants the BOF design for towing. But that role is already covered (albeit for more money) in the LX. Buick's Cascada convertible, though extremely well-built for the price (to me, it feels as resistant to flex as the much more expensive Mercedes SL and SLK) has been somewhat of a dud in sales....possibly because of the stiff-riding 20" wheels. I also will be surprised if both the Jeep Compass and Patriot stay in production much longer....though different body styles on the same platform, they basically eat into each others market, and I think only one will survive.