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Declining sales of anything without 'utility' in its description

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Old 08-18-19 | 08:27 PM
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(Moderator note: quote from Avalon review thread, post by SW17LS)


Correct, Toyota (and Honda) are much more secure than Ford and certainly GM, and they have more resources to spread across, so they can hang on with certain models longer than Ford or GM can. Minivans are a great example, thats why Toyota and Honda became the "king of Minivans" for upper middle class people because they held on while consumers were flocking away from minivans to SUVs in the late 90s/early 2000s when GM and Ford had to cancel their vans, and Chrysler was making garbage and surviving of fleet sales. Honda and Toyota absorbed all those consumers who wanted a quality minivan and they were able to carve a niche out for themselves that worked.

You'll see the same thing with sedans, the ONLY large sedan will be the Avalon/ES. The ONLY quality midsize sedans will be the Camry and Accord, the ONLY compact cars will be the Corolla and Civic. and there will be enough buyers left to make those nameplates work for Toyota and Honda. Obviously you have other players like Nissan and Mazda, VW, Kia & Hyundai but they're never going to rise to the ranks of Toyota and Honda probably.

Down the line will that shift back to sedans? It might, and this shift will happen again.


I wanted to reply as this was a good conversation we had going. To the bold, I wonder if the market will shift back to sedans, I don't believe it will. When the next downturn happens, (sort of already is) I think the Big 3 will lost significant market share and sedans won't help them. The big 3 had sedans in the last recession, crazy enough, Toyota actually gained market share at the bottoming out. I think the vast majority will just see a Camry, Corolla and Civic or Accord as the safe thing to do.

Last edited by bitkahuna; 08-18-19 at 11:08 PM.
Old 08-18-19 | 08:43 PM
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(Moderator note: Quote from Avalon review thread, post by SW17LS)

You'll see the same thing with sedans, the ONLY large sedan will be the Avalon/ES. The ONLY quality midsize sedans will be the Camry and Accord, the ONLY compact cars will be the Corolla and Civic. and there will be enough buyers left to make those nameplates work for Toyota and Honda.


No offense, but this is nonsense. Genesis sedans, IMO, are already exceeding the build-quality of equivalent Toyotas/Lexuses and Hondas/Acuras in some areas.

Last edited by bitkahuna; 08-18-19 at 11:07 PM.
Old 08-18-19 | 08:48 PM
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Originally Posted by mmarshall

No offense, but this is nonsense. Genesis sedans, IMO, are already exceeding the build-quality of equivalent Toyotas/Lexuses and Hondas/Acuras in some areas.
But Genesis sells in super low volumes. I think we are in agreement that it is the mainstream brands we are talking about? ES is more of an extension of Toyota.
Old 08-18-19 | 08:54 PM
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Originally Posted by LexsCTJill
But Genesis sells in super low volumes. I think we are in agreement that it is the mainstream brands we are talking about? ES is more of an extension of Toyota.
Lexus, despite its connections to Toyota, did not start out as a mainstream brand, either...it evolved over time. So will the case probably be with Genesis.


Last edited by mmarshall; 08-18-19 at 08:58 PM.
Old 08-18-19 | 08:57 PM
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Originally Posted by mmarshall
So will the case probably be with Genesis.
Crossovers probably. Sedans not likely. Next downtrun, most of these Genesis sedans get the ax. I could see something in the EV space which definitely would work.
Old 08-18-19 | 08:59 PM
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Originally Posted by LexsCTJill
Crossovers probably. Sedans not likely. Next downtrun, most of these Genesis sedans get the ax. I could see something in the EV space which definitely would work.

Genesis, IMO, deserves a lot of credit for refusing to drop any of their sedans despite the fact that, as you note, they are not selling in big numbers. GM and Ford, in their marketing nonsense, could learn a good lesson from that.
Old 08-18-19 | 09:04 PM
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Originally Posted by mmarshall
Genesis, IMO, deserves a lot of credit for refusing to drop any of their sedans despite the fact that, as you note, they are not selling in big numbers. GM and Ford, in their marketing nonsense, could learn a good lesson from that.
Give them all the credit you want, Genesis USA is just a small market worldwide for their sedans. The global auto market is shrinking, the US auto market is shrinking. Small numbers is good for the Genesis brand.

Explain the marketing nonsense? Fewer people want GM and Ford sedans.
Old 08-18-19 | 09:07 PM
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Originally Posted by LexsCTJill
Give them all the credit you want, Genesis USA is just a small market worldwide for their sedans. The global auto market is shrinking, the US auto market is shrinking. Small numbers is good for the Genesis brand.

Bitkahuna gave them even more credit than I did....he bought one. I certainly can't argue wth that.....the G80 and G70 are both high on my own list of sedan-likes....although the G70 is a little too much of a sport-sedan and too stiff-riding for my (daily) tastes.
Old 08-18-19 | 09:07 PM
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Originally Posted by mmarshall
Bitkahuna gave them even more credit than I did. He bought one. I certainly can't argue wth that.....the G80 and G70 are both high on my own list of sedan-likes....although the G70 is a little too much of a sport-sedan and too stiff-riding for my (daily) tastes.
Good. I am glad others and yourself like them and give them credit Genesis does make nice sedans

Last edited by Toys4RJill; 08-18-19 at 09:22 PM.
Old 08-18-19 | 09:57 PM
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LexCTJill and mmarshall, you each quoted something in your posts on this page with no reference as to who wrote the posts which is not helpful. Did they even come from this thread?

edit: looks like LexCTJill’s quote was from SW17LS in the avalon review thread, is that correct?

what about mmarshall’s? Edit: i now see mmarshall quoted part of the post LexCTJill quoted.

Last edited by bitkahuna; 08-18-19 at 11:10 PM.
Old 08-19-19 | 02:18 AM
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Originally Posted by LexsCTJill
(Moderator note: quote from Avalon review thread, post by SW17LS)
I wanted to reply as this was a good conversation we had going. To the bold, I wonder if the market will shift back to sedans, I don't believe it will. When the next downturn happens, (sort of already is) I think the Big 3 will lost significant market share and sedans won't help them. The big 3 had sedans in the last recession, crazy enough, Toyota actually gained market share at the bottoming out. I think the vast majority will just see a Camry, Corolla and Civic or Accord as the safe thing to do.
I have a different opinion to Jill on the left, and Mike on the right.
I am a moderate in the middle.

We all agree that electrification is the future right?
Say by about 2035, EV's will outsell traditional ICEV's right?
Hydrogen fuel cell HFCEV's will provide long distance and commercial vehicles [which generally travel long distances].

The battery packs are around 4" high, and this prevents the legs from dropping down into the footwell space.
Thus, the ankles are lifted near the buttocks, while the knees are raised, and point uncomfortably to the sky in both Model S and Model 3.

Hence it is my theory that the next generation of EV's will be about 4" taller than the typical ICEV sedans of today, but not as tall as CUV/SUV tall wagons like C-HR/RAV4/Highlander.
Let's say current Camry is 57".
The new Chevvy Bolt, Nissan Leaf and Jaguar iPace are good examples of this intermediate height @ ~63", ~60" and 61" respectively - and that's about the height of a C-HR, yet still a good 5" to 8" lower than RAV4 & Highlander respectively.

With a sub-compact C-HR, there is NO battery pack under the floor, such that the legs can really drop down, whereas with the sub-compact EV Bolt, compact Leaf and iPace - the seating position is very much like a traditional sedan, but on a 4" higher floor thanks to the thickness of the EV battery pack...



Go to 00:02'40" below:


Tesla Model S & Model 3 which use conventional sedan height @ ~57", the 4" high battery pack reduces the vertical cabin space by a good 4", kicking the rear passengers ankles high, with knees pointing to the sky - similar to an agricultural coupe/sports car rear compartment.




Chevvy Bolt, Nissan Leaf & Jag iPace are ~4" higher than a traditional sedan in overall height @ 63", 60" & 61" respectively to accomodate the EV battery pack, hence passengers have a conventional comfortable seating position with legs dropping down.





Last edited by peteharvey; 08-19-19 at 05:52 PM.
Old 08-19-19 | 05:13 AM
  #297  
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Originally Posted by LexsCTJill
Crossovers probably. Sedans not likely. Next downtrun, most of these Genesis sedans get the ax. I could see something in the EV space which definitely would work.
Or, maybe, next downturn, Genesis gets more budget-conscious customers that don't want to spend as much on traditional lux brands. There was an economic downturn in the early 90s; it didn't hurt Lexus.
Old 08-19-19 | 06:25 AM
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Originally Posted by peteharvey
I have a different opinion to Jill on the left, and Mike on the right.
I am a moderate in the middle.
Actually, Jill is not that far on the left, nor am I that far on the right. I just don't see a rush to electrifying everything as inevitable....ICEs will be around for a while.

We all agree that electrification is the future right?
ONLY if we can get an adequate charging-infrastructure set up outside of California. Otherwise, all you will have is a bunch of EVs with dead battery-packs.



Say by about 2035, EV's will outsell traditional ICEV's right?
Again...depends on the infrastructure.


Hydrogen fuel cell HFCEV's will provide long distance and commercial vehicles [which generally travel long distances.
Again, I know this sounds like a broken phonograph-record, but, outside of California, we will also need the refueling stations for the compressed/pressurized hydrogen.
Old 08-19-19 | 09:54 AM
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Originally Posted by LexsCTJill
But Genesis sells in super low volumes. I think we are in agreement that it is the mainstream brands we are talking about? ES is more of an extension of Toyota.
Exactly, when I say "ONLY" I mean cars that sell in significant volumes.

I was also talking about mainstream cars not luxury cars
Old 08-19-19 | 04:12 PM
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Originally Posted by mmarshall
Actually, Jill is not that far on the left, nor am I that far on the right. I just don't see a rush to electrifying everything as inevitable....ICEs will be around for a while.
I am no God.
I have no crystal ball either.
However, let's say hypothetically electrification did go ahead.

Would it be better to build the EV chassis around a conventional sedan 57" height over an 4" thick underfloor battery pack with the cabin concomitantly reduced by 4" in interior cabin height, resulting in passenger ankles lifted up, and knees pointing to the sky like the agricultural rear passenger seating position of a coupe or 2+2 sports car as currently used by Teslas Model S & Model 3?

Or would it be better to build the EV chassis around a 4" raised height to accomodate the 4" high battery packs like Bolt/Leaf/iPace @ 63/60/61" respectively for a traditional more comfortable seating position with legs dropping down?
If I'm not wrong, Obama/Trump's limmo is sort of like this - or even taller...
.

Last edited by peteharvey; 08-19-19 at 04:25 PM.



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