Hydrogen vehicles discussion
12-20-20, 03:02 AM
#76
If there is no infrastructure then there cannot be any vehicles sold in that market. At least in the US, this is not going to happen (for a long time).
In other markets, maybe they will build the infrastructure and this vehicle will be an option. Time will tell either way.
In other markets, maybe they will build the infrastructure and this vehicle will be an option. Time will tell either way.
12-20-20, 05:21 AM
#77
Pole Position
Last edited by natnut; 12-20-20 at 05:28 AM.
12-20-20, 09:27 AM
#79
Lexus Fanatic
12-20-20, 12:57 PM
#80
Lexus Fanatic
Thread Starter
iTrader: (20)
haha. I could see it happening for commercial vehicles where h fill ups are positioned on interstates long distances apart.
apart from that, unless there's a giant govt subsidy to setup an h consumer infrastructure, it's NEVER going to happen in the u.s. at least.
i guess it will happen in japan because they (as a nation) have bet the farm on it, primarily because they have no natural fossil fuel energy resources and they believe this is the best way to lessen their reliance on foriegn fossil fuels.
apart from that, unless there's a giant govt subsidy to setup an h consumer infrastructure, it's NEVER going to happen in the u.s. at least.
i guess it will happen in japan because they (as a nation) have bet the farm on it, primarily because they have no natural fossil fuel energy resources and they believe this is the best way to lessen their reliance on foriegn fossil fuels.
12-20-20, 02:35 PM
#81
After seeing the Japanese bet on nuclear power just to have it literally blow up in their face, I don't have much faith in their government decision-making when it comes to energy. The forcing of hydrogen on all passenger vehicles is another terrible decision by the government.
12-20-20, 05:04 PM
#82
Lexus Fanatic
After seeing the Japanese bet on nuclear power just to have it literally blow up in their face, I don't have much faith in their government decision-making when it comes to energy. The forcing of hydrogen on all passenger vehicles is another terrible decision by the government.
I don't think you can use the Fukushima reactor-incident as a credible argument against hydrogen-production. It was due to something totally beyond the Japanese Government's control....a major earthquake just offshore. And, in case you are not aware of it, major earthquakes are just as much of a potential problem in California, where they do have at least some hydrogen-refueling infrastructure compared to other states. California and Japan both sit on opposite sides of the huge Pacific tectonic geological plate, and anywhere along the edges of that plate, along with volcanoes in some places, is subject to major earthquakes at any time. We saw major destructive quakes in California in 1906, 1989, and 1994, in Alaska in 1964, and in Japan in 1925 and 2011. And you can bet the farm there will be more to come.
Last edited by mmarshall; 12-20-20 at 05:16 PM.
12-20-20, 05:15 PM
#83
Lexus Fanatic
I think all governments should ban anything ICE that does not use a battery. That is what Japan will very likely do
Last edited by Toys4RJill; 12-20-20 at 05:25 PM.
12-20-20, 05:31 PM
#84
Even if it was due to a natural disaster, the fallout far exceeded expectations and security protocols, and the Japanese government won't be touching nuclear power anytime again soon. They placed all their bets on nuclear and completely lost. Hydrogen will be a similar story.
https://www.npr.org/2020/09/09/91118...ustry-in-japan
https://www.npr.org/2020/09/09/91118...ustry-in-japan
LONSDORF: Here at Daiichi, huge amounts of water are pumped into the damaged reactors every day to keep them cool. The end result is more than one million tons of that water piled up in storage tanks, contaminated with radioactive tritium. Storage space is running out, and the Japanese government is considering dumping it all into the ocean, much to the dismay of local communities worried about environmental impact. This is all just a taste of what it means to decommission Daiichi, which will take an estimated 40 years and nearly $200 billion, to produce no electricity at all.
The rest of Japan's nuclear power program isn't faring a whole lot better. By 2011, nuclear power produced nearly a third of the nation's energy. But after the disaster, the Japanese government imposed new safety regulations that took every nuclear reactor offline - all 54 of them. And the Japanese public largely wants to keep it that way.
The rest of Japan's nuclear power program isn't faring a whole lot better. By 2011, nuclear power produced nearly a third of the nation's energy. But after the disaster, the Japanese government imposed new safety regulations that took every nuclear reactor offline - all 54 of them. And the Japanese public largely wants to keep it that way.
12-20-20, 05:44 PM
#85
Lexus Fanatic
Even if it was due to a natural disaster, the fallout far exceeded expectations and security protocols, and the Japanese government won't be touching nuclear power anytime again soon. They placed all their bets on nuclear and completely lost. Hydrogen will be a similar story.
https://www.npr.org/2020/09/09/91118...ustry-in-japan
https://www.npr.org/2020/09/09/91118...ustry-in-japan
12-21-20, 06:34 AM
#86
Let's just see where the road goes for hydrogen before just sandbagging it. I think that is where Alex on Autos comes from. He goes very easy on the Mirai in his review, and points out that it is like driving a concept car. Holding it to the timeline of the rise of EVs or to the features of most cars is not fair because we all know hydrogen isn't there yet. Maybe it won't ever be, but there's still a lot of engineering work to do and room for improvement. Even though this new generation Mirai is $9k cheaper, looks better (or rather less ugly), has a nicer interior, and addressed some of the interior space issues, it's clear that without incentives the Mirai is still worse than a regular car in basically every way for 99.9% of people. That's why it's offered in a small area with a pretty cheap lease, free fuel, and a bunch of free car rental days. People are trying the car and the infrastructure concepts while providing feedback directly or indirectly to Toyota.
From an existential standpoint, BEV seems like the most looming threat to hydrogen. Ultimately they have the same aim, which is to eliminate pollution from the vehicle itself. In only a decade BEV has stolen hydrogen's luster and many of its would be future customers. BEV is so far ahead and improving so rapidly that the bar for hydrogen adoption gets higher and higher. I'm not convinced it will find a widely adoptable role, but I accept that there is enough unknown at this stage. I think the most fatal flaw for hydrogen is it does not have a Tesla, and by that I mean a company fully committed to developing hydrogen as fast as possible at all cost. Will any carmaker put real money into refueling infrastructure instead of pressuring the government? In six years of work since the Mirai debuted, how much is the 2021 model improving on the original? If I answer based on what I see from Toyota and what I imagine from Tesla as a hydrogen company, I get very different answers.
From an existential standpoint, BEV seems like the most looming threat to hydrogen. Ultimately they have the same aim, which is to eliminate pollution from the vehicle itself. In only a decade BEV has stolen hydrogen's luster and many of its would be future customers. BEV is so far ahead and improving so rapidly that the bar for hydrogen adoption gets higher and higher. I'm not convinced it will find a widely adoptable role, but I accept that there is enough unknown at this stage. I think the most fatal flaw for hydrogen is it does not have a Tesla, and by that I mean a company fully committed to developing hydrogen as fast as possible at all cost. Will any carmaker put real money into refueling infrastructure instead of pressuring the government? In six years of work since the Mirai debuted, how much is the 2021 model improving on the original? If I answer based on what I see from Toyota and what I imagine from Tesla as a hydrogen company, I get very different answers.
12-21-20, 07:26 AM
#87
Pole Position
If both had similar infrastructure, hydrogen seems like it would be a better fit for the majority of the general car buying public, simply for the fact that hydrogen refuelling time is practically similar to petrol/diesel ICE cars.
Add to that the fact that there is not as yet sufficient raw materials for significant ramping up of BEV battery production, I can forsee BEV production stalling while other alternative fuel options, hydrogen included, overtake BEVs as a mainstream form of personal transportation.
Add to that the fact that there is not as yet sufficient raw materials for significant ramping up of BEV battery production, I can forsee BEV production stalling while other alternative fuel options, hydrogen included, overtake BEVs as a mainstream form of personal transportation.
12-21-20, 08:46 AM
#88
Lexus Test Driver
Originally Posted by natnut
If both had similar infrastructure, hydrogen seems like it would be a better fit for the majority of the general car buying public, simply for the fact that hydrogen refuelling time is practically similar to petrol/diesel ICE cars.
Add to that the fact that there is not as yet sufficient raw materials for significant ramping up of BEV battery production, I can forsee BEV production stalling while other alternative fuel options, hydrogen included, overtake BEVs as a mainstream form of personal transportation.
Add to that the fact that there is not as yet sufficient raw materials for significant ramping up of BEV battery production, I can forsee BEV production stalling while other alternative fuel options, hydrogen included, overtake BEVs as a mainstream form of personal transportation.
The biggest benefit of EVs currently is the driving and ownership experience. Instant torque, no NVH, minimal maintenance, dirt cheap refueling costs and being much cleaner overall are real tangible benefits over ICE today.
12-21-20, 09:34 AM
#89
Lexus Fanatic
It's probably far cheaper to ramp up raw material acquisition for BEV than it is to build a Hydrogen infrastructure. It's also probably far faster too. In the meantime, ICE will still be the dominant platform. Hydrogen overall has far more challenges to overcome and if refueling times is its only benefit, then it has no chance to win as they will get BEV charging times to less than 10 min in less than 10 years. Prototypes for next gen batteries are already at 15 min.
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Last edited by Toys4RJill; 12-21-20 at 09:52 AM.
12-21-20, 10:09 AM
#90
Lexus Fanatic
2021 Mirai: 4300 lbs
2020 Telsa Model 3 Performance AWD: 4100 lbs
2020 Telsa Model 3 Performance AWD: 4100 lbs