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with the audi etron, the mercedes eqc, and a bmw ev suv being tested in sweden for release soon... it's clear the germans are coming fast and going right for the sweet spot, a mid size suv, which makes a lot of sense not only because it's a huge market, but because the giant batteries can be packaged more easily into a taller body.
meanwhile, the tesla model x is pretty much a failure, the model s a success, and the model 3 is a huge success, so far. tesla is no doubt frantically working on the coming model 'y', a smaller utility vehicle, but will they simply be overrun? not likely because of the momentum that have, their own charger network, their great batteries and efficiency, not to mention capacity to build.
even if the german models are great, can they build them at scale?
then there's others such as jaguar with the ipace, which seems to be viewed as beautiful but not very efficient. where's lexus? can a genesis ev be far away since hyundai/kia have now launched 2 new ev models?
This might (?) be a little off-topic, but, IMO, right now, before we start expanding the number of pure-electric EVs in production, a lot more attention needs to be put into expending the availability of charging-outlets for these vehicles. Many people do not live in single-family homes with outdoor outlets, or garages with indoor outlets. Many people also do not live with easy driving-distance (particularly for an EV) of an EV dealership for charging, either. California, in general, probably has the best-developed network for charging (as it also does for other alternate-fuel vehicles), but, once outside that state, the available number of outlets drops off drastically.
even if the german models are great, can they build them at scale?
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Absolutely. The new electric SUV by MB can built on their existing lines for their gas and diesel models. Once the large manufacturers get into the electric game, it's all over for Tesla.
Absolutely. The new electric SUV by MB can built on their existing lines for their gas and diesel models. Once the large manufacturers get into the electric game, it's all over for Tesla.
can they (german brands) get enough batteries? to date they've only shipped tiny numbers of ev's. in fact no one but tesla has shipped any quantity - maybe nissan is the highest. tesla built a VAST factory to make batteries. i think that even if the germans come on strong they perhaps they may end up buying batteries form tesla.
...and they would only need one fourth of the batteries for twice the autonomy if they would start to make decent electric cars, and not road Panzers laid on the designs of the 70's.
can they (german brands) get enough batteries? to date they've only shipped tiny numbers of ev's. in fact no one but tesla has shipped any quantity - maybe nissan is the highest. tesla built a VAST factory to make batteries. i think that even if the germans come on strong they perhaps they may end up buying batteries form tesla.
Sure they. A lot of people do not know, but BMW already has electric vehicles in the US. So does Toyota in Japan. They are small, however all the tech and engineering are already there. I am not sure if they would go to Tesla for batteries, my guess is that they would go to a battery maker such as Panasonic etc. The avantage that the big manufacturers have is that they are experts at mass producing many vehicles, the new MB EQ can be built along side a gas or diesel model. Takes all the pressure off making only EVs
What about for Toyota? They have no BEVs and we have no idea when they will.
Toyota does have electric vehicles in Japan. The small IQ and some others. So the tech is there. The Miraj is also an electric vehicle, it just used hydrogen to fuel the batteries which is the same as an electric. Toyota Prius is a plug in hybrid (don’t tell the Lexus defenders). So Toyota is well on their way. Hyundai has all of this stuff as well. GM as well.
The thing people do not remember is that there have been electric vehicles for a very long time. Dating back to the 80s. RAV4 EV was something back in the 90s people seem to forget. Kia Niro was designed to be a hybrid or gas or plug in.
Telsa has no competitive advantage over the existing manufacturers.
Germans don't always win, and they have missteps for sure. An example would be digital photography. My grandfather has quite a collection of Leica gear, yet they missed the digital paradigm shift (I don't think they ever really got into SLRs sticking with rangefinders, but someone into it knows better).
Who knows why but Nikon and Canon did not miss a beat in the transition, and even Sony was able to get in there.
At any rate I would never write off the Germans when it comes to engineering. My grandfather used to always laugh when he heard was it Garfunkel singing, "Don't know what a slide rule is for...." Cuz he was an electrical engineer....and they used that stuff. I remember as a child playing with Staedtler compasses my grandpa had laying around and thinking I could poke things with it...
Germans don't always win, and they have missteps for sure. An example would be digital photography. My grandfather has quite a collection of Leica gear, yet they missed the digital paradigm shift.
Who knows why but Nikon and Canon did not, and even Sony was able to get in there.
it...
If I'm not mistaken, Leica had to turn to Kodak to have anything at all for digital--imagine that. It was like 3 years ago? A HS student took our picture with a Polaroid. I think it was a fad that didn't last? Not sure. I mean an instant photo came out and she handed it to us.
As far as Germans and batteries, well, I stupidly "proactively" replaced my BMW battery when the car was 5 y.o. Go on the forum and it's pretty routine for some people to get 11 years out of the original battery. I kept the original, and I have to admit the dealership asked me why do you want to replace the battery, there's nothing wrong with it.
Anyway, the original is made in Germany, the replacement, which looks identical, was made in USA by Exide. I think of this as being the "Chinese sausage conundrum." I saw Chinese sausage in the Costco at Gaithersburg, MD. But that sausage is made in USA at a factory, that can make italian, bratwurst, chorizo. I think of Exide as being the same with batteries. Which is better? My gut says the German one...so they can produce them. Maybe Varta makes the OE, not sure...
I think Telsa won't be able to keep up, and will likely end up either selling only one vehicle (I expect midsize sedan or CUV) or cutting vehicle production altogether and focusing instead on manufacturing batteries and supplying them to the bigger brands.
What about for Toyota? They have no BEVs and we have no idea when they will.
I recall Toyota mentioning that it is quite ez for them to go full electric. They just need to remove the combustion engine from the hybrid equation.
Originally Posted by bitkahuna
can they (german brands) get enough batteries? to date they've only shipped tiny numbers of ev's. in fact no one but tesla has shipped any quantity - maybe nissan is the highest. tesla built a VAST factory to make batteries. i think that even if the germans come on strong they perhaps they may end up buying batteries form tesla.
Forget batteries, do we have enough magnets for the motors. And with China controlling the mines that is required for both batteries and magnets, production can be pretty sketchy and expensive with ramped up demand for the raw materials.
02-05-19, 08:51 PM
Tesla, the Germans are coming for you...
