I actually think OP has a valid point that the 3LS was "killing" both the S Class and 7 Series in his first post. But back then you really only had the big three. The A8 was a niche player back then and still is (for some reason). Fast forward 15 years later and now there is the Model S, Panamera, and even the G90.

Now the interesting part is that total sales in this segment in 2005 was 66k, in 2007 it was 80k, in 2008 it was 53k, in 2013 it was 50k, in 2018 it was 74k. I picked those years actually because those were the best sales years for the LS from 2005 to 2019. However, if we only look at the big three total sales, it goes from 60k, 76k, 50k, 35k, and 33k for those same years. Wow. So in 2005, the big three made up 91% of the total sales, but in 2018 the big three only made up 45% of the total sales. That is a huge drop. And as OP has indirectly pointed out, the S Class has maintained its 25-30% market share of the segment since 2005, while the 7 Series has lost a little bit of market share since 2005 but still is at a comparable 20% market share range. The LS has suffered mightily going from segment leading 40% market share in 2005 to 12% in 2018.

So what happened? Did LS owners leave Lexus for MB and BMW? Possibly, but its not like those two gained massive market share in the way the LS lost market share. Maybe its the upstart Equus/G90 that the automotive press has compared to the "old school" LS? Possible, but it doesn't sell enough to cut more than half of LS's market share from 2005. Panamera? Clearly on the upswing and is currently outselling the LS in 2019. Heck, it will probably outsell the A8 in 2019 too. But really, is it really the Model S? In 2018 alone, it sold 30k. Outselling the S Class 2:1 and LS 3:1.

Just something to think about and hopefully discuss in a civil manner. The Model S is nothing like the traditional LS luxury sedan, but it overtook the market share leader in 2018 (2019 looks less successful, but still outselling the S Class slightly). Did LS owners go to Tesla because its an electric vehicle? I live in the Bay Area so I am home to the market leader of electric cars and probably the second largest Lexus customer base (total) in the US behind the SoCal area. Maybe I should ask these Model S owners what they used to drive.

TLDR: Lexus needs to release a full electric sedan* already! *SUV if Lexus wants even more sales. Smh.

 

4LS sales weren't disappointing in its first two full calendar years from January 1st to December 31st.
In 2007, 4LS thumped 35,226 on debut.
In 2008, at height of Global Financial Crisis, 4LS still managed 20,255.

 

Maybe lurking on occasion, as I don't really favour logging in and putting up with some of unnecessary arguments that crop up in this forum and dominate discussion. Besides that, very busy unfortunately.

 

You did a very good job adding up the total full size luxury sedan sales figures for each calendar year.
Like Jill said, you confirmed that there is no real contraction of the full size luxury sedan market now versus ten years ago.


Notice how the midlife refreshed 2016-19 inclusive 4.5GS is said to be slightly smoother and quieter in both engine and chassis than the original 2012-15 inclusive 4GS?
Notice how the all new 2018-24 Camry is much smoother and quieter riding than the previous 2012-18 Camry?
Notice how the all new 2018-24 7ES is much smoother and quieter than the previous 2012-18 6ES?

When a marque continuously chip chops between sports and luxury - that tells us the marque is confused, and has an identity crisis regarding whether it wants to be luxurious or sporty...


How about we just accept that President Akio stuffed up with the no more boring car formula?

We ourselves, President Akio and Toyota Motor Corp - are all old enough to take responsibility for our actions?
Or we keep on blaming it on others like SUV's and Teslas?

It's okay to make a mistake now and then is it not?
Afterall, we are humans.

Look at all the mistakes Bill Clinton made.
Look at all the mistakes Arnold Schwarzenegger made.
Look at all the mistakes Donald Trump has made.
Look at all the mistakes you and I have made.
.

 

This is a VERY american discussion.

I can't remember if we even commented any kind of sales on other french, german or swiss forums. But in the US, you always look at the sales and where the market is going to shift.

In a certain way, this distracts a lot from what a car actually is. And if cars are good aren't necessarly binding to their sales. Just look at the Toyota Supra Lexus LS400 or Honda NSX, that where far from beeing successfull in Europe.

We aren't Lexus, we are not in the decision process how to do cars, and if they blunder and totally butter fries their marketing strategy, it's painful to watch, but so it is. The Japanese would call this "Shō ga nai". I will do too.

 

The CT6 actually sold 777 units last month. I know it has some lower price points, but that's more than I expected with the uncertainly around it's demise.

 

So really, the CT6 is third in the segment.

S Class: 1,204
7 Series: 988
CT6: 777
LS500: 457
A8: 261
G90: 159

 

Because not everybody wants to buy used cars, I only buy new cars. When I replace my LS460 in 3-4 years, I will want to purchase a new car and I won't have an LS to purchase that fits my wants. I'm not faulting you for liking the new LS where you haven't liked LS's before, but people like me who like the traditional large luxury car feel the LS has always had have a legitimate complaint with Lexus for changing the nature of the car.

You can make the same argument that you can just buy a sportier car from someone else if that's what you want and let us have the LS that we want.

Legitimate complaint here IMHO, and clearly sales aren't pointing towards the idea that the shift Lexus made is translating into sales for Lexus with the LS. Certainly the $90,000 they got from me last year will be the last $90,000 they're going to get from me, where I almost automatically would have gotten another LS to replace this one when the lease is up.

 

They didn't actually get (or lose out on) 90K, did they? Leasing usually involves only paying for the car's depreciation during the lease-contract, not the full selling price.

 

I did buy a 4LS and wasn't happy with it for a number of reasons. I was expecting the 5LS to something worthy of the LS nameplate, and I don't think they achieved that. Other than exterior dimensions, it's almost like they left the entire segment. Not even sure who they are targeting.

 

The idea that luxury sedan buyers have moved over to SUVs is very credible but there are qualifiers to that. MB for eg. and its S class sales numbers may be down from their historic highs but look at where those numbers may have shifted to. The GLS has sold very well over the last several years and there's a new one debuting at the NY Auto Show in a few days.

MB's midsize/compact RWD SUVs GLE and GLC have great numbers but you don't see E and C class sales numbers slumping much. It shows that you can have your cake and eat it too. In fact MB did very well with its ML SUVs from the 90s onwward, which Benz now calls the GLE. The E class didn't feel much pain there despite the fact that there was an in house SUV competing for sales.

And look at BMW's X5 from its debut two decades ago; by its second year it posted numbers that kept going up and up. Yet the 5 series sedan kept selling very well through all this. It's probably a similar situation at Audi. Whatever's going on with luxe sedan numbers, the German trio are not feeling too bad about it. They've got other products that are very successful.

 

One idea that i'm not sure has been brought up here is Lexus cannibalizing sales from its own line. In my area, I see A LOT of older folks in ES's (and Avalons as well). I think someone mentioned that the formula for the ES hasn't changed where it seems like the formula for the 5LS seemingly changed. I also feel like the Avalon has remained the same big, floaty-boaty ride it has always been.

I recall seeing lots of ads for the 5LS while Marvel's Black Panther movie was coming out showing the main star with the Lexus voice-over stating "The New LS500, fit for a king." It appealed to me as a younger buyer but it seemed like a much different type of marketing ploy than in the past when the 2013 4LS was being marketed.

When I was last at the dealership in late 2018, there was a black 2019 ES and a black 2018 LS sitting next to each other (poor planning from the dealership if you ask me) as the two looked almost identical from the front. The LS was $81k and the ES was $46k. My pops was with me and he liked the LS but didn't like the price (he currently drives a 3GS).

He thought a fully optioned out ES was a better value around $50-55k. He would also consider an RX350 which makes no sense because he never has more than two passengers, nor needs the cargo room, nor has he ever complained about visibility / field of vision...its basically because SUVs are trending which creates that appeal to him as an older buyer.

tldr: My personal thought is that some of the LS folks have defected to other cars in the Lexus lineup (ES ultra lux, RX lux pkg) that appeal from both a financial/practical standpoint. They may be more likely to hold on to their current LS especially since the 5LS may not appeal to them.

 

I think you are correct.

But the formula for the ES has changed. It's gotten bigger and more luxurious. It's no longer a Camry with a nicer interior. It's an Avalon with a nicer interior, and that added space and luxury put it within striking distance of the LS. And now that the LS has taken a completely different direction, it's starting to suffer.

The difference between a 2005 ES and 2005 LS was substantial from just about every perspective. Like you said, the difference between the 2019 ES and 2019 LS is not so cut and dry. The ES appears to be a much better value.

 

So, is the CT6 an ES or LS competitor? Are it's sales relevant to this discussion?

 

This is not meant to be inflammatory. I have never understood why some people use lease and purchase interchangeably.