mmarshall

Oh, like I said, we have indeed come a long way....I'm not disagreeing with that part of your statement. But a major roadblock, at least outside of California, seems to be the lack of an adequate EV charging-system. No matter how good Teslas (or any other EVs) get, or how much high-tech they have, it will do little good if we can't regularly re-charge them on a long trip...and I don't see very much action on the part of most jurisdictions to get the ball rolling on new charging stations.

EZZ

Charging infrastructure has to be a fraction of the gas stations out there. It only has to supply energy to the ones on road trip or emergency fill ups. The vast majority will simply plug in at home for their daily commute. I have no doubt the ICE is on its last legs. Just a matter of time now as the entire automotive model and landscape will change with BEVs. What will dealerships do when cars no longer need routine maintenance? Good riddance to dealerships.

peteharvey

If you could charge your Tesla in 5 minutes, and you did so repeatedly, you will severely diminish the long term lifespan of your battery from 8 years down to just 4 years or worse etc.
Right now, for rapid refuelling and long range, the way to go is hydrogen fuel cell powered electric.
You can refuel your ugly Mirai very quickly, and you have a huge range, but because hydrogen fuel cell requires extra steps, you must be prepared to lose efficiency, speed, and pay a bit more.
A solid state battery with 5 minute high speed charging, and long range like 500 miles - is still a long long way away.

Statistically, something like 90% of trip are under 50 miles, or whatever.
Not only will the vast majority be charged at home, but the vast majority will be "topped-up" on a "daily" basis, as opposed to traditional gasoline refilling once a week.

The question is not IF, but WHEN BEVs will outnumber ICEVs.
When will BEV sales outnumber ICEV sales?

Will that be:
2020 - I doubt it.
2025 - I still doubt it.
2030 - I still doubt it?
2035 - This could be roughly the year???
2040 - BEV should have outsold ICEV by now?
2045 - ?
2050 - BEV should have definitely outsold ICEV by now.

It's not that critical to predict the actual year when BEVs will outsell traditional ICEVs.
What's more important is to realize that BEVs will outsell ICEVs in the near future.

As the traditional experienced major players like Benz, Audi, BMW and Lexus etc - who can both design & assemble motor vehicles properly, unlike Tesla - start BEV production, BEV sales will boom!

Thus, presently back on topic, there is still decent time for TMC to use Mazda RWD platforms and Mazda in-line sixes - though the sales of this type of vehicle will be greatly diminished due to increasing sales of BEVs - and that's the very reason why TMC is rebadging, as opposed to building their own motor vehicle, esp for cars like the GT86, Supra, and RC that sell in such small numbers.

As far as this thread is concerned, for TMC to rebadge Subarus, BMWs & Mazdas is presently a very very smart move - due to the electrification of the motor vehicle industry....

.

Toys4RJill

I do not agree. It will be just as costly to charge/drive your EV if not more compared to a gas engine as the future approaches. ICE have a really long way to go.

EZZ

You can argue with my electric bill of $500 per year for 15k miles vs my Is350 of roughly $3k using premium. My 2yr expected maintenance on my Model 3 will be $200. My IS350 total maintenance was roughly $2k in that same period. My purchase price of the model 3 was $55k (with rebates) vs $50k for my IS350 and it completely annihilates my old IS in every performance metric.

So I can't agree with you on the cost of electricity vs gas as I have definitive proof that my running costs are significantly lower with my BEV.

Toys4RJill

But what happens to the missing tax revenue from gasoline when more and more electric cars enter the marketplace. What happens when more and more electric vehicles add load to the electric grid? How does the state or area pay for the roads or manage the load infastructure?

mmarshall

Don't kid yourself. There are plenty of taxes collected on electricity.....at least here in the U.S. A large part of the monthly bills from electric utilities are taxes and surcharges/fees.

Toys4RJill

Who is kidding themselves? I don't get it.

The taxes and fees will increase as more people link their cars to the grid.

peteharvey

Yes.
Very true.
Plenty of new electricity taxes in the pipeline, else new taxes can always be created.

mmarshall

What I meant was that government revenue from electricity will probably not be an issue....they collect enough taxes and fees from it as it is.



That's why hybrids will, IMO, continue to remain popular.....let the engine do the charging instead of the electric grid, although, I'll admit, one is paying for the gas the engine uses in the recharge process. Still, it's only a small amount of gas.

Toys4RJill

So are you suggesting that the government will not increase taxes on electricity to off-set the lose of revenue as ICE leave the the roads and no longer use gas?

mmarshall

First, they might not need to. If you have a lot more people paying into the system, they are going to be collecting a to more revenue even without raising the tax rate per kilowatt-hour. Second, if they raise the rates anyway, they will have to answer to those who elect them. Third, we're getting somewhat off topic.....Toyota using Mazda-sourced platforms and engines.

IS350jet

I think the more important question is; what happens to the oil companies? Don't worry about taxes, they'll be generated every which way.

peteharvey

Whatever happened to Kodak.

EZZ

Good riddance.