The November 2018 Restructuring Has Claimed Multiple Products In The Pipeline

https://www.musclecarsandtrucks.com/...e-suv-program/

 

So GM had a Bronco competitor on the table AND it was a unique GMC product to boot and they've already given it the axe. What a shame

 

The fact that even GM itself considered a true, proper Bronco competitor shows that even they may have admitted, like I said, that the current Blazer was a mistake. Now, cancelling a proper Bronco competitor just compounds that mistake.

 

IMO and the way I see it. I think all the major auto makers are not sure what to expect going forward. So GM is pulling forward on their plans for autonomous and an electric future. In addition, an economic downturn is coming. So with the uncertainty of the future for electrics, and an economic downturn on the horizon, these large companies will have a very hard time coming out of the downturn once things get better, and the industry change when that happens. It’s probably the correct move to cancel these developments.

 

One cannot state that, with a very high degree of confidence, anytime soon. Recessions are notoriously hard to predict....especially in this age when so many people have money the stock market, whether directly (stock/fund-shares) or indirectly though IRA and 401K plans, and the general Dow/NASDAQ averages seem constantly up. Even harder to predict is how recessions, when they do happen, will affect the auto market. Vehicle-purchases are not as elastic as a many people think, because old vehicles wear out and have to be replaced, regardless of economic conditions. People can only put off replacing old, worn-out Betsy for so long.

 

If you think an economic downturn is not coming, then that is fine. GM’s recent closure of plants, and this new cancellation of body of frame development is definitely in anticipation of a slowdown coming. I also believe Toyota’s reluctance to update their trucks and SUVs are also of this reason and s well. I guess opinions differ.

 

No....what I am saying is that modern economics make it very difficult to predict future trends. I simply don't know if a recession is coming or not.....and I'm not going to stick my neck out with a prediction.


Given the current strong market for trucks, I'm not sure one can make that statement. GM, like mostly other manufacturers, is just sold on unibody crossover designs.

There might (?) be one exception, though to that general policy. If Silverado sales continue to play second-fiddle to the Ram, we might see another all-new one sooner than would otherwise be the case.

 

But these big mega corporations do think like this. GM has said their plant closures and restructuring is in anticipation of a slowdown for the future. But also in relation to a change in consumer habits. They are downsizing now, so they are prepared for later.


The current economic expansion is one of the longest ever, maybe even the longest. So, I will predict, an economic downturn will come.

 

Of course another one will come....that's a given. But I think it is a mistake to tag a prediction like that simply to X-number of years of economic expansion. And, as far as how it affects auto companies, I've seen too many bad decisions made by auto marketers that came back to bite them. GM, for one, I think, when they see the Bronco's sales potential, is going to wish they had marketed a different Blazer.

 

i think you're right, this goes along with my thread about toyota tightening things, being very conservative, and hoarding money.

the bottom line is there's too much supply of cars and trucks, so when the music stops, all car makers will be affected. but wait, it's worse... europe has an ENORMOUS problem with their politicians etc. screaming 'green, green!' yet europe still makes mostly diesel cars. so many will just hang on to what they have and wait for a decent electric car to show up. fca is losing a fortune in europe, supported only by ram/jeep in the u.s. even mb/bmw are feeling it.

between student loans, healthcare costs, rising rents, etc., the u.s. has a SERIOUS problem with young people not able to afford much of anything.

boomers in the u.s. continue to buy nice vehicles in huge numbers and families buy suvs. businesses buy loads of trucks. but we still have loads of oversupply and that's why ford and gm have been changing their line-ups and capacity, and quickly. they don't want to get caught like they did in '08.

 

I don't see how that is anything new. Toyota has been cutting costs on their vehicles (particularly on some Lexus products) for the last 15 years.

Despite VW's well-publicized record of cheating on diesel-emissions, I don't see most typical automotive diesels as being a major source of pollution. One must only compare the awful diesels of 30-40 years ago, belching black soot/pollutants, and with all of their other starting/running problems, to today's diesels, which not only start and run like sewing machines, but thanks to advanced urea-solutions, also pollute very little. In the mad rush to electric-conversion, it must also be remembered that some forms of generating electricity, themselves, also pollute. So, when you recharge your Tesla or other BEV/plug-in hybrid, you may be polluting in simply a more indirect way.

Don't want to stray too far off-topic here, but you do have a valid point with some students (assuming that Mom and Dad aren't paying for college) getting into serious student-loan debt. In fact (here, Jill, I might agree with one of your predictions), if ANY economic bubble is going to burst soon, the student-loan debt will probably be the most likely one, just like mortgages collapsed 10 years ago and Tech-stocks 20 years ago.

But I don't see the other two (rents and health-care) as currently being big issues for your people, because, by law, they can be on their parents' Health insurance until they are 26 years old, and many of them reliving at home with their parents anyway, either paying no rent or maybe a token rent just to help their parents out a little.

Totally agree. Despite the obsession in the auto industry with youth-oriented vehicles, much of the new-car business is, in fact, with Boomers and/or older adults. They are simply the ones that have most of the money, having worked many decades in higher-paying careers and saved much more than today's young people, which, sad to say, are often just not getting the same opportunities outside of living at home.

Of course, to be honest, not all older adults have a lot of money to spend. For various reasons, some are on only a small fixed-income or Social Security, with little else. But, as a whole, the Boomers are quite well-off compared to many others.


What's likely going to happen is that, in their rush to convert sedans to SUVs/CUVs, they are simply going to trade one oversupply for another. People who don't want SUVs aren't going to be forced into them, and a number of them will simply hold onto those older sedans and repair them (or buy in the used-car market instead of new).

 

Thanks. I am glad you see what I mean. When the downturn hits, I think you will see Toyota wait until the downturn hits rock bottom before they spend on certain things. As the downturn starts to improve, you then get a better outlook of how to invest resources. Tundra, 4Runner, LC, and Sequoia are all gravy trains for Toyota, so spending the money now for the plant, the platforms, the forecasting for build totals at peak sales, will end of being a big money loser once a crash happens...and once the crash is over, certain segments will be vastly different.

2007 196,555
2008 134,249
2009 79,385
2010 93,309
2011 82,908
2012 101,621
2013 112,732
2014118,493
2015 118,880
2016 114,489
2017 116,285
2018 118,258

Above are the Tundra sales, I used them as an example as Toyota spent a lot of money before "great recession" and the sales just tanked. Then they had to move Tacoma production to the Tundra plant once they realized sales would never get back to pre-recession days...My guess is that Toyota lost a lot money in the 09-12 years and they won't spend it now because they know another slowdown is coming.

Back to GM body on frame, releasing a new mid size body on frame model is not in the best interest long term.

Agreed. We are already seeing huge layoffs in anticipation of a slow down. I doubt there will another bailout if any of the big three were to need one

 

During the great recession. Vehicle sales went from 16 million to less than 10 million.

Credit and cash dry up during a recession. Many people simply cannot buy a new car. People tend to hold onto things when there is a downturn

 

Although the recession was not entirely without effect, the main reason Tundra sales tanked during that period was because of publicity on build-quality issues of the 2Gen version....the C-Channel frame aft of the engine, tailgate-bending from heavy loads, and flimsy plastic trim that often broke.

(to be honest, though, those negatives were countered by an excellent drivetrain, good road-manners/refinement, and a still-good reputation for reliability).

 

Me thinks you are incorrect.

Dodge Ram sales went form

358.295 in 2007

to

177.268 in 2009

The recession hurt everyone.

4Runner went from 87,000 in 2007 to just 14000 in 2009