We must always remember to factor in the cost of a new battery pack every 8 years or so.
Such that after 1 year, we factor in 1/8th depreciation for the cost of a brand new battery pack.
Below is a graph of Model S/X degradation over time, and these two models have only been widely used on the market for the past several years - hence only limited data is available now.
Presently, no long term "independent" battery degradation data is available.

Don't worry about degradation over mileage, because this is more applicable to taxi drivers.
Don't worry about degradation over recharge cycles either.
Focus on degradation over time.

With current levels of technology, batteries inherently degrade, at great replacement cost, and great carbon emissions to produce.

 

Completely inaccurate. Your graph shows that after 6 years, the average degradation is 5%. The batteries themselves are warranties at 8 years, 120k miles. Tesloop had fleet vehicles that reached over 350k miles that needed battery replacement but nothing on the age of the battery indicated 8 years was the maximum life. Tesla battery chemistry is different than the crap in your phone so no one know the true life of these batteries in years. So far, they keep going on till about 350-500k miles at which the battery starts to die...I will never kept a car that long anyway.

 

Presently, the bulk of the independent data available is only for 730 days etc - and NOT 6 years as you constantly optimistically claim.
They have lost 5% after 2-3 years.

You are finally unbiased when you state that [prsently] no one knows the true life of these batteries in years.

No one said that presently, you should keep away from EV's.
In fact, early adopters like yourself should be encouraged to move into EV's, esp to help fund and provide valuable real life feedback data for the new tech.

Battery degradation is a common omission when factoring long term running costs.
Short term, owners say it is so cheap to run - until they pay for the next battery pack...
.

 

You're the one who indicated we should depreciate the battery 1/8th which implies an 8 year life. In terms of mileage, Teslas have already blown right past the 120k mile mark (warranty period) and haven't seen much degradation. Is degradation a function of time or use? If its a function of use then you're getting over 300k without needing a new pack. As I said before, nobody knows how Tesla's battery chemistry will stand the test of time.

 

With the limited data presently available, it is prudent to factor ~1/8 the cost of a new battery pack.
Batteries WILL degrade over time.

What are the costs of Model 3 replacement battery packs including labour?

 

1/8th is your estimate. it could be 1/16th, 1/32nd? Nobody knows. The battery pack most likely may outlive the car if its use dependent and last to 300k miles. Why do we factor in battery??? Do ICE's factor in transmissions at 1/8th or 1/16th? An auto tranny only lasts about 150-200k miles before it blows up and cost at least $2k or more...your entire argument is silly....the battery is a component of the car and like any other drivetrain part such as engine, tranny, other.

The battery cost is currently ~$5-7k. Labor is kinda unknown as the batteries that have been replaced have all been under warranty.

 

1/8 is a rough idea based on current data.
Better than NOT factoring in battery degradation at all.

It is great to realize the benefits of EV, however being a fanatic is unwise.

 

I just like to stop the FUD before it gets out of hand. There is no reason to base the life of the battery on 8 years. None at all...its just the warranty period of the battery. Implying 8 years as the lifetime of the battery is FUD. Fake news. I'm just informing everyone who reads this of these FACTS.

 

Regrettably, batteries, do degrade.
And if it does not degrade as quickly as common household lion, it will at least degrade in 8 years.
There is no point biasedly turning a blind eye and sweeping battery degradation under the carpet.
It is important to be realistic.

In the graph below, the faster the charging rate, the more rapid the battery degradation.

 

Again, you show a complete your lack of understanding on the Tesla batteries. You show 500 cycles which is not time dependent, but use dependent which i've outlined in many many posts above. Tesla S (old model) was rated at 1000-1500 cycles. At 300 miles per cycle, its roughly 300,000 miles to 450,000 miles of USE not TIME. Batteries have shown to degrade on use and i have never argued against that. You are basing it on time which isn't how battery degradation is measured on. You should rate it against mileage so after 8 years, if you've driven 100,000 miles, you still have 200,000 miles left. You should then discount the battery life by 1/3rd.

 

your own chart shows 6% degradation after 2190 days which is 6 years, so no idea what you're basing the what "we must always remember" as if it's a fact when it isn't.

as far as limited data, how about the fact that the Tesla S was launched SEVEN years ago, and while i'm not saying it hasn't happened i've not heard of any battery packs having to be replaced (unless they're defective).

are you basing this 'advice' on that one chart?

your usual electric car bashing. the nissan leaf, of which there are more of (EV) than anything else, was introduced in 2011. has battery replacement been a big issue, since that's the magic 8 years you claim?

it would be prudent if you had any data to back that up, but you don't, so you use it as an assertion as to why EVs are bad. false strawman.

being an unnecessarily negative curmudgeon is not wise either.

facts and assertions with no data.

what is the source of this graph? is it even about EVs at all?

 

The first sentence in my post in red font should tell you that:
1) Battery degradation must be factored in.
2) "8 years or so" implies a rough estimate.
It is very common for posters to forget about the battery degradation factor.

My 2nd graph illustrates the point that the more a battery is rapidly supercharged, the greater the battery degradation.
It is clearly stated in the sentence above the graph if you read properly.
The graph does NOT purport [lay claim] to be that of Panasonic 18650 cells at all; just common household Lions as stated in the paragraph above the graph.
https://www.clublexus.com/forums/car...l#post10608695

As usual, you make all these assumptions about what I said including:
1) That the graph provided is a fact, when it isn't - well, it's meant to be a survey is it not?
2) That I am basing advice on one chart - well, commonsense should tell you that it is only there to give a rough idea - what evidence do you have of how long batteries last?
You keep making all these assumptions when I have never laid such claims.

I am not against EV's at all.
In fact, EV's are the way to the future; my rough estimate is that by 2035, EV's will outsell ICEV's - remember that's only a rough estimate, so don't start making more assumptions.
However, optimistic one-sided slanging by biased posters is not the way to go.

Presently, very little is known about the long term of these vehicles.
Decent [statistically significant] large volumes of data have only been recorded by independent groups from about 3 years ago.
.

 

just because you wrote "or so" doesn't add any greater validity to what you posted. it could be 8 years, it could be 20 years. we don't know. your graph does not, in any way, show any correlation to 8 years unless you can explain that. and you ignored my point that your graph does show (red line) an average of 6% degradation after 6 years (no big deal).

and it's very common for you to forget that we don't know anything really about the longevity of these battery packs. so are owners rolling the dice if they intend to keep their cars a LONG time? i guess so, but that's no different than ANY vehicle where expensive repairs (transmission, etc.) become needed. and battery packs will likely only get cheaper over time.

so your graph is about household lithium ion batteries... ok, so i'm going to ignore it as irrelevant compared to sophisticated car battery packs.

i disagree... tesla s has been around 7 years. and of course hybrids and phev's have been around over a decade although most of those are NiMH.

 

Longevity has been proven time and time again with high mileage Tesla's. The battery packs in terms of mileage last greater than 300k miles. The time component is unknown so quantifying it with the number of years is completely invalid. Degradation is correlated with charge cycles which is directly proportional with mileage. After 8 years, you should still have more than half of your battery life remaining given a 15k mile per year usage.

 

is that right? reason i ask is if an EV driver drives just say 20mi. a day but then recharges every night, they'd be doing a ton of recharging with very little milaege.