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Love to see where the battery is at the 8 year mark.
Tesla will only guarantee this cult car's battery to 70% of the original battery capacity at 8 years.
This means that if the original brand new battery was fully charged and depleted to zero percent for a 300 mile range, then with battery degradation at 70% of the original brand new maximum capacity, its range will have diminished to only ~200 miles.
Now, if we limit charging and discharging to the 20-80% range to lessen battery degradation, then now we only have a 120 mile range!
Many consumers don't understand this at the time of the purchase.
While some owners & fanatics/zealots can accept this, many owners will have long demanded a new battery pack, because that's why they purchased this particular vehicle in the first place.
Always to remember fo factor in the cost of a new battery pack in your running cost calculations; many do not factor this in, including Arthur Driessen above and our very own Hoovey.
This is the principle reason why EV's are dubious for 24 hour long range commercial vehicles with rostered drivers, and one of the main reasons for HFCEV's as a stop gap - until solid state and graphenebattery technology reaches production.
Furthermore, a few battery principles to keep in mind:
Even if a battery sits around doing nothing, it will still degrade due to side chemical reactions.
The faster & more frequent the supercharging, the faster the battery degradation.
The more frequent the maximum range driving - requiring full charging to 100% and discharging to 0%, or part of - the faster the battery degradation.
After 2 years, the average Tesla battery has degraded to the 95% level already.
Fanatics will use extreme examples - rather than use averages...
Love to see where the battery is at the 8 year mark.
Not much data about 8 year Teslas. Here is a 7 year old one. Most are seeing that these batteries have much longer life just because the battery management systems keep them within optimal temps and the chemistry is just better (and more expensive) than the crap you find in your iphone.
7 Year Old Tesla Model S At 98% Battery Capacity Today
In a fresh Reddit discussion, the owner of a 7 year-old Tesla Model S explains that his battery is at 98% battery capacity today. This is another reminder of the reasons Tesla cars are much slower to depreciate in value. Any Model S already has long enough range that its battery can degrade significantly and it’s still a highly practical, no-compromises electric vehicle, but seeing such little degradation is that much better for initial owners and used car buyers.
That said, not all Tesla cars see only 2% loss of range in 7 years. This car is on the more positive side of things. Also, at some point, this car should see a more notable drop in range due to age, because batteries lose capacity from both use and time. That said, there’s no doubt this anecdote is a positive sign.
CarFax notes that a new $45,000 car will drop in value by about $5,000 almost immediately. Their data show that cars can lose more than 10% of their value during the first month after you drive off the lot. And the amount keeps falling. CarFax mentions that, due to current depreciation rates, the value of a new vehicle could drop by more than 20% after the first year of ownership. By the time 5 years have come and gone, your car’s value could be around 40% of the original purchase price. Add in live events such as accidents, having a car stolen, etc. No one’s perfect.
So, yes, a Tesla is going to lose value over time anyway, barring an extreme value boost (like Full Self Driving being implemented and regulations allowing robotaxi service), but Tesla vehicle have historically held their value better than their competitors. Some have wondered if that would change as time went on and batteries degraded more, but stories like this one about a 7 year old Tesla show little sign for worry.
The Redditor noted at the top, “ManhattanTime,” said in his post that he charged the battery up to 90% the night before, as he has always done for the past 7 years. 90% charge gives it 234 miles today. When it was brand new, it would have been 238.5 miles at a 90% charge. This is how he calculated the 98% of the original battery after 7 years of use.
ManhattanTime says he never “babied” the battery — meaning, he used it as he needed to. He always charged it to 90% and has used Supercharges about 50 times, or maybe a bit less than that, but still quite a few times. In his post, one more thing ManhattanTime recalls is the early days where people would scream and panic about the battery. The question was: “What are you going to do in 5 years when your battery is at 50% and you need to buy a new one for $45,000, you idiot?” It’s 7 years later now and the battery is at 98%, not 50%, of ininital capacity.
Tesla has come a long ways when it comes to perfecting its batteries, including its Powerpacks and Powerwalls as well as its automotive batteries. How much further will Tesla go in the next 7 years?
Questions about how durable Tesla's are always come up. At 100k miles, this Model 3 lost about ~3% of his battery but he has also done only Supercharging because he lives in an apartment. Also, has done only tire rotation / replacement on the car as maintenance items (nohting else was done). He had a broken control arm that was replaced for $500 due to hitting something. Of course he saved a boatload on gas savings. Interesting read.
Earlier this year, we contacted several owners with high-mileage Model 3 vehicles and they were all still very impressed by their cars, but now another Tesla owner pushed his Model 3 even further.
Here’s what the first Tesla owner to travel 100,000 miles in his Model 3 has to say about the electric car.
Arthur Driessen reserved a Model 3 on March 31, 2016 – the first day Tesla opened reservations.
Two years later to the day, he took delivery of his Model 3 Long Range.
During the first 6 months of ownership, Driessen went on a couple of road trips and racked up 20,000 miles on the electric vehicle.
That’s more than most people, but it’s actually nothing compared to what he did over the last year.
Driessen, who is based in Los Angeles, ramped his traveling up and he has recently surpassed 100,000 miles on his Model 3 – likely becoming the first person to do so.
He has driven the car all over North America and he has been documenting his experience on Twitter and his blog.
Electrek interviewed him to get an idea of his overall experience with the car and how it has held up after that much mileage.
First off, what everyone wants to know: what kind of repair and maintenance did he have to do over those 100,000 miles?
It turns out that the car held up extremely well and the only repairs that had to be done were related to Driessen “beating the car to death” in his own admission.
He said:
“For maintenance and repairs, this is my favorite part. If I was not beating the car to death, all I would have had serviced is tires. I’m averaging 25,000 miles per set when properly rotated.”
As for the repairs due to the “beatings”, it’s nothing too crazy.
Driessen told Electrek about the repairs:
“Other than tires, I drove the car through a valley stream and had to get a control arm replaced afterward. I also was out on the Bonneville Salt Flats when the winds were high speed. They slammed my door to its limit and shattered a piece inside of the hinge.”
He said it ended up costing less than $500 to replace those parts.
Another popular question for longtime Tesla owners, or in Driessen’s case, a Tesla owner who managed to put a lot of mileage on his car in a short period of time, is “how does the battery pack hold up?”
He said that he now gets a max range of 302-308 miles, which is about a 2.5% loss on his original 310 miles of rated range when he bought the vehicle.
However, Tesla did release a software update to increase the range of the Model 3 Long Range to 325 miles earlier this year, but it didn’t affect all vehicles the same way.
Driessen’s Model 3 battery pack appears to be holding very well and it’s particularly impressive considering that he has been exclusively charging it through Supercharging.
A lot of his mileage is done on road trips, which Tesla’s Supercharger network enables, and he lives in an apartment in Los Angeles without a home charging solution.
While it has been known that DC fast-charing is not ideal for battery health, we haven’t seen many real-world examples of it and Driessen’s Model 3 is certainly not one of them.
Although, he has some very good charging habits:
“I have only gone below 10% (state of charge) two handfuls of times. I have never left my car plugged in longer than it has been charging. If there is a supercharger close enough, I don’t charge over 60%. I am immediately hitting the road, so the car never sits with a high percentage of charge in it either.”
Speaking of Supercharging, despite the fact that he has to pay for it like most Model 3 owners, he believes that he saved a lot of money in gas.
He broke down in a message to Electrek:
“Compared to a civic, which is what I drove before, in my base of Los Angeles where the gas is always high, I saved about $7,000 just on gas. Oil changes would be another thousand or more. That’s using an average of 30mpg and $3.75 per gallon as well as $50 per oil change.”
so he got the car mar 31, 2018 so that's almost 19 months.
100k mi. in 19 months is 5263 mi. a month (a lot of driving!)
his range is 310mi. but he only charges to 60% and recharges at 10%, so he only gets 50% of the range, or 155 mi.
that means he charges 34 times a month, or more than once a day on some of the days. and he doesn't charge at home.
what a pain in the ***
he may have saved money, but he's surely wasted a vast amount of time at superchargers.
so he got the car mar 31, 2018 so that's almost 19 months.
100k mi. in 19 months is 5263 mi. a month (a lot of driving!)
his range is 310mi. but he only charges to 60% and recharges at 10%, so he only gets 50% of the range, or 155 mi.
that means he charges 34 times a month, or more than once a day on some of the days. and he doesn't charge at home.
what a pain in the ***
he may have saved money, but he's surely wasted a vast amount of time at superchargers.
From 10-60% is about ~12-15 minutes so not that bad. He can make it work but I'd rather have a garage. The reason he charges to 60% is because that is where you begin to see the charging speed decline. Its almost optimal to only charge to 60% as it could take you twice as long to charge to 80%.
Tesla will only guarantee this cult car's battery to 70% of the original battery capacity at 8 years.
doesn't matter what they guarantee, as you say, evidence is important.
most people take 8 years to drive 100,000 miles and now Arhur Driessen has done it in 19 months (doesn't really matter how long it takes, it's how far it's driven) and his battery life has dropped from 100% to 97%, not to 70%.
After 2 years, the average Tesla battery has degraded to the 95% level already.
Fanatics will use extreme examples - rather than use averages...
don't know where that graph is from, but it says after 6 years on average it will be about 93.5%. seems unlikely 2 more years will take it to 70%, no?
From 10-60% is about ~12-15 minutes so not that bad. He can make it work but I'd rather have a garage. The reason he charges to 60% is because that is where you begin to see the charging speed decline. Its almost optimal to only charge to 60% as it could take you twice as long to charge to 80%.
good info, but still, if i had a gas car i could only drive 155 mi. between fill ups, i wouldn't keep it long!
At work I was part of the team to choose the next company vehicle for some of our US based staff. We currently have a a fleet of Toyota Camry's. When it came to picking the next car I immediately thought of the Model 3's and wouldn't mind one for my 90 mile round trip commute when I go into the office, unfortunately Tesla does not do fleet as we would be buying 40 cars at once. We ended up going with the Prius simply because it was the cheapest to own per mile followed by the Camry Hybrid and Rav4 Hybrid. I must say I was a little disappointed with the no fleet option for Tesla and I would much rather have that than a Prius. Either way having a Supra and Prius in same household does make me giggle somewhat.
don't know where that graph is from, but it says after 6 years on average it will be about 93.5%. seems unlikely 2 more years will take it to 70%, no?
I'll find the link to the webpage for that graph for you.
We are treading on uncharted waters, so there is a lot of "don't knows".
The reason why I used the 2 year mark is because the highest "sample numbers" are at the 2 year mark.
In the 3rd year, the sample number is moderate.
In the 4th year, the sample number is dwindling.
While at 5 years, the sample number is too small.
As sample numbers dwindle, data and extrapolation becomes inaccurate.
Furthermore, most batteries have a complex sigmoidalS-shaped degradation curve over time with two (2) bends, as opposed to a more favorable simple C-Shaped curve with only one (1) bend.
In an S-shaped curve, battery degradation will speed up over time - as the 2nd curvature kicks in.
The graph above is for Model S & X data only, so the Model 3 will bring far more data [sample numbers], but statistically significant numbers of Model 3's have only been on the market for a very short time.
However, because the Model 3 has a smaller battery capacity than flagship Models S/X - Model 3's battery will have far more battery degradation stress!
Presently, lots of don't knows.
It will be interesting to see how the much larger sample numbers of Model 3's with its smaller battery capacity & concomitantly greater battery stress & degradation perform over time....
.
At work I was part of the team to choose the next company vehicle for some of our US based staff. We currently have a a fleet of Toyota Camry's. When it came to picking the next car I immediately thought of the Model 3's and wouldn't mind one for my 90 mile round trip commute when I go into the office, unfortunately Tesla does not do fleet as we would be buying 40 cars at once. We ended up going with the Prius simply because it was the cheapest to own per mile followed by the Camry Hybrid and Rav4 Hybrid. I must say I was a little disappointed with the no fleet option for Tesla and I would much rather have that than a Prius. Either way having a Supra and Prius in same household does make me giggle somewhat.
I assume the new Corolla Hybrid wasn't available? That would be the lowest cost to own. Almost matches Prius MPG and cheaper to buy. Also the benefit of looking like a "normal" car, depending on personal preferences.
I'll find the link to the webpage for that graph for you.
We are treading on uncharted waters, so there is a lot of "don't knows".
The reason why I used the 2 year mark is because the highest "sample numbers" are at the 2 year mark.
In the 3rd year, the sample number is moderate.
In the 4th year, the sample number is dwindling.
While at 5 years, the sample number is too small.
As sample numbers dwindle, data and extrapolation becomes inaccurate.
Furthermore, most batteries have a complex sigmoidalS-shaped degradation curve over time with two (2) bends, as opposed to a more favorable simple C-Shaped curve with only one (1) bend.
In an S-shaped curve, battery degradation will speed up over time - as the 2nd curvature kicks in.
The graph above is for Model S & X data only, so the Model 3 will bring far more data [sample numbers], but statistically significant numbers of Model 3's have only been on the market for a very short time.
However, because the Model 3 has a smaller battery capacity than flagship Models S/X - Model 3's battery will have far more battery degradation stress!
Presently, lots of don't knows.
It will be interesting to see how the much larger sample numbers of Model 3's with its smaller battery capacity & concomitantly greater battery stress & degradation perform over time....
.
you didn't respond to the more important point that is that driver did 8+ typical years of driving in a tesla and his battery life dropped a whopping 3%.
and model 's have been out there for what, 7 8 years now and i haven't heard of disastrous degradation. maybe you need more data, but obviously a lot of people are convinced at this point.
By my definition of a cult car, I'd agree with the Wrangler, Outback, Model 3, and Mustang...not sure about the Civic and Tacoma. Older Civics and Integras are popular with slammers, but I wouldn't consider them cult.
As far as other (possible) cult-cars, I'd add 1955-57 Chevys, 1955-57 two-seat Thunderbirds, the original 60s-vintage Jaguar XKE, street-rod 1932 Ford "Deuce" coupes with 1950s/60s-vintage Chevy V8s, the original Pontiac GTOs, the 1963 split-rear-window Corvette Sting Ray, the 1970 Plymouth Hemi Barracuda, the Honda CRX, the BMW 2002, the 50s-vintage Mercedes gull-wing SL, and the Chrysler PT Cruiser.
10-21-19, 12:47 PM
