Tesla stock on an absolute tear (C'mon haters!)
12-18-19, 03:34 PM
#31
Tesla ramp up is also aided by record build of GigaFactory in China. It uses a manufacturing process that is even more optimized than Fremont CA. Tesla simply beat Trump's Tarif madness and on track to aid global sales numbers to a new record in 2020. One look at this report will show some obvious market shifts. Look closely... you can even spot the GS languishing in marketshare ( find the bar chart and the 3113 number... SAD! ).
https://interestingengineering.com/t...-car-in-the-us
Also a reason for Tesla to be on a tear is this news published only yesterday....
https://electrek.co/2019/12/17/tesla...gigafactory-3/
Just couple these news, and you have a very solid short burn taking place (stock holders who were hoping price would fall). in 12-18 months, Gigafactory 4 in Berlin will clone the successes of what was done in China. No OEM Vehicle manufacturer can ramp up like Tesla is able to. It will be on track for a million vehicles cumulative in 2020, and hit the 2 million mark by 2022-23. Any sedan/compact SUV will not move the needle compared to what Tesla is doing.
What does the auto industry look like if Tesla is firing on all cylinders with sales in 5 disruptive market segments.. Sedan (Model S, Model 3), SUV (Model X, Model Y), Semi, CyberTruck, and Electric ATV's. I could include the updated roadster. It's too much of a niche product. The variations of the CyberTruck are the wildcard -- for both commercial, utility, and consumer space. Everyone else in the business has no real answer in EV/Battery solutions and true integration with AutoPilot/Navigation/Surround Sensing. At the end of the day, who are you going to trust... someone who has been around the block and learning curve with ongoing updates for 3-5 years or a first generation product of a OEM heavy weight who really does NOT have all the EV integration done properly.
Lets give Tesla props for becoming a global transportation company. Maybe by 2025 it's valuation should be worth as much as the Big 3 combined.
https://interestingengineering.com/t...-car-in-the-us
Also a reason for Tesla to be on a tear is this news published only yesterday....
https://electrek.co/2019/12/17/tesla...gigafactory-3/
Just couple these news, and you have a very solid short burn taking place (stock holders who were hoping price would fall). in 12-18 months, Gigafactory 4 in Berlin will clone the successes of what was done in China. No OEM Vehicle manufacturer can ramp up like Tesla is able to. It will be on track for a million vehicles cumulative in 2020, and hit the 2 million mark by 2022-23. Any sedan/compact SUV will not move the needle compared to what Tesla is doing.
What does the auto industry look like if Tesla is firing on all cylinders with sales in 5 disruptive market segments.. Sedan (Model S, Model 3), SUV (Model X, Model Y), Semi, CyberTruck, and Electric ATV's. I could include the updated roadster. It's too much of a niche product. The variations of the CyberTruck are the wildcard -- for both commercial, utility, and consumer space. Everyone else in the business has no real answer in EV/Battery solutions and true integration with AutoPilot/Navigation/Surround Sensing. At the end of the day, who are you going to trust... someone who has been around the block and learning curve with ongoing updates for 3-5 years or a first generation product of a OEM heavy weight who really does NOT have all the EV integration done properly.
Lets give Tesla props for becoming a global transportation company. Maybe by 2025 it's valuation should be worth as much as the Big 3 combined.
12-18-19, 03:50 PM
#33
Big 3 as in the Detroit 3... GM, Ford, Chrysler... sorry I needed to clarify.
Wanna Bet? Who ever thought Apple will become a trillion dollar company. It can be on pace to be come the first 2 trillion dollar company. This tech space is so disruptive.
The real wild card is how our battery tech can evolve to better designs and lower costs. The Iphone is only possible because of advances in PC tech and integrated electronics + software.
Tesla is not possible without integrated electronics and software. Even the battery components can be replaceable and upgradeable to better designs as tech advances. Quicker recharge times, more miles out of the same battery weight. It's such a dynamic future that ICE car's are dead on arrival with a 4-8 year life cycle topping out at 100-130k miles. It defies conventional thinking. Even Trump cut short EV credits or any interest in having these benefits for cars extended. There's going to be some hatred stewing within the auto industry for how Tesla is faster, quicker, first to the punch on all things EV. In the next few years, it will be all about the sales numbers and ramping up to getting to a million vehicles sold per year...and who's going to be the auto version of 'Google' equivalent to Tesla? Everyone wants to do their things and all of em getting into the same bed together EV wise is hard to fathom.
Wanna Bet? Who ever thought Apple will become a trillion dollar company. It can be on pace to be come the first 2 trillion dollar company. This tech space is so disruptive.
The real wild card is how our battery tech can evolve to better designs and lower costs. The Iphone is only possible because of advances in PC tech and integrated electronics + software.
Tesla is not possible without integrated electronics and software. Even the battery components can be replaceable and upgradeable to better designs as tech advances. Quicker recharge times, more miles out of the same battery weight. It's such a dynamic future that ICE car's are dead on arrival with a 4-8 year life cycle topping out at 100-130k miles. It defies conventional thinking. Even Trump cut short EV credits or any interest in having these benefits for cars extended. There's going to be some hatred stewing within the auto industry for how Tesla is faster, quicker, first to the punch on all things EV. In the next few years, it will be all about the sales numbers and ramping up to getting to a million vehicles sold per year...and who's going to be the auto version of 'Google' equivalent to Tesla? Everyone wants to do their things and all of em getting into the same bed together EV wise is hard to fathom.
12-18-19, 03:54 PM
#34
Lexus Champion
No, you're good. I knew exactly what you meant. Tesla worth more than GM, Ford, and FCA combined? In a timeframe of 5 years?
Are you serious?
12-18-19, 04:22 PM
#35
Pole Position
Thread Starter
So.... Tesla market cap is $70 billion today. That makes them bigger (in value) than Ford and FCA combined as we sit here today. It won't take 5 years.
12-18-19, 09:57 PM
#37
Racer
Well, I think you state some facts. Not all facts.
1) Competition coming from almost every auto maker: Not really. Name a competitor that offers a car with similar range to a Tesla model. No one has delivered a car with the same range, same performance, for anywhere near their price point. Recent example: Porsche. Now I'm reading about Ferrari's "Tesla Killer". Give me a break. It'll cost $250k and I am well-versed on how you buy Ferrari's. You have to earn your way into buying certain models, so only a select group of existing Ferrari buyers will even have access to their EV.
2) High insurance negates cost savings: not true. I spend $250 minimum each month in gas. I called my insurance and got quotes on moving to a Model 3 or a Model S and keeping my exact same coverage as on my 2010 LS. It was an extra $100/month maximum. Numerous owners of Tesla on this forum have debunked the claim about crazy insurance prices and shared the exact car they switched from.
3) Model X and Model S sales are down 50%. I'm not sure if this percentage is accurate, but they both should be down. Musk knew he would cannibalize the S and the X when he came out with the true mass-market vehicle of the Model 3. Read his master plan - originally inked 13 years ago (August 2006). It clearly spells out that he wanted to come out with expensive cars first - and then get to a mass market car (phase 3 of his 4 step plan, with phase 4 having nothing to do with cars -- solar power).
4) They will be operating at a loss for 4th quarter - how can this be a fact when it is forward-looking?
5) Consumer Reports- when they stop defining reliability with things like broken cup holders, nav units not acting as they should, etc. I'll pay attention to them. For Tesla, 80% of issues can be fixed without you having to drive anywhere (software or on-site service), so if something is wrong, it's more convenient to fix a Tesla than any other brand I'm aware of.
Link to Musk's 10 year update on his 2006 master plan, explaining how the Model 3 and the upcoming Model Y would cannibalize other models. https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux And notice this line: "The reason we had to start off with step 1 was that it was all I could afford to do with what I made from PayPal. I thought our chances of success were so low that I didn't want to risk anyone's funds in the beginning but my own."
1) Competition coming from almost every auto maker: Not really. Name a competitor that offers a car with similar range to a Tesla model. No one has delivered a car with the same range, same performance, for anywhere near their price point. Recent example: Porsche. Now I'm reading about Ferrari's "Tesla Killer". Give me a break. It'll cost $250k and I am well-versed on how you buy Ferrari's. You have to earn your way into buying certain models, so only a select group of existing Ferrari buyers will even have access to their EV.
2) High insurance negates cost savings: not true. I spend $250 minimum each month in gas. I called my insurance and got quotes on moving to a Model 3 or a Model S and keeping my exact same coverage as on my 2010 LS. It was an extra $100/month maximum. Numerous owners of Tesla on this forum have debunked the claim about crazy insurance prices and shared the exact car they switched from.
3) Model X and Model S sales are down 50%. I'm not sure if this percentage is accurate, but they both should be down. Musk knew he would cannibalize the S and the X when he came out with the true mass-market vehicle of the Model 3. Read his master plan - originally inked 13 years ago (August 2006). It clearly spells out that he wanted to come out with expensive cars first - and then get to a mass market car (phase 3 of his 4 step plan, with phase 4 having nothing to do with cars -- solar power).
4) They will be operating at a loss for 4th quarter - how can this be a fact when it is forward-looking?
5) Consumer Reports- when they stop defining reliability with things like broken cup holders, nav units not acting as they should, etc. I'll pay attention to them. For Tesla, 80% of issues can be fixed without you having to drive anywhere (software or on-site service), so if something is wrong, it's more convenient to fix a Tesla than any other brand I'm aware of.
Link to Musk's 10 year update on his 2006 master plan, explaining how the Model 3 and the upcoming Model Y would cannibalize other models. https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux And notice this line: "The reason we had to start off with step 1 was that it was all I could afford to do with what I made from PayPal. I thought our chances of success were so low that I didn't want to risk anyone's funds in the beginning but my own."
Sure, build quality isn't up to Lexus, or even Toyota, standards, but neither are other EVs up to Tesla battery, performance, and range standards. I can confidently say our Model S is better now than when we purchased it four months ago, thanks to a series of OTA updates that have brought new features, improved performance, and increased range! Tesla is on a role and my biggest fear now is the popularity of the Model Y in a few short months, and how crowded Supercharging stations will become.
12-19-19, 05:53 AM
#39
Pole Position
Thread Starter
Our insurance went up $57.50 per month on a new 2019 Raven Model S. It still saves us over $200/month on gas. Of course, it will still take many years to offset the cost of the Tesla compared to keeping our previous 2013 LS 460, but there's also less maintenance costs involved too. To me, the insurance increase is quite modest and not worth mentioning because I'm sure insurance would have increased too had we bought a 2019 LS instead, just without any gas savings.
Sure, build quality isn't up to Lexus, or even Toyota, standards, but neither are other EVs up to Tesla battery, performance, and range standards. I can confidently say our Model S is better now than when we purchased it four months ago, thanks to a series of OTA updates that have brought new features, improved performance, and increased range! Tesla is on a role and my biggest fear now is the popularity of the Model Y in a few short months, and how crowded Supercharging stations will become.
Sure, build quality isn't up to Lexus, or even Toyota, standards, but neither are other EVs up to Tesla battery, performance, and range standards. I can confidently say our Model S is better now than when we purchased it four months ago, thanks to a series of OTA updates that have brought new features, improved performance, and increased range! Tesla is on a role and my biggest fear now is the popularity of the Model Y in a few short months, and how crowded Supercharging stations will become.
12-19-19, 07:10 AM
#41
Lexus Test Driver
They just released a $2000 software upgrade called Boost mode that will get your AWD Model 3 to go 0.5 seconds faster to 60mph (4.1 -> 3.6). People downloaded it as soon as it was available and already verified that the upgrade works as advertised. Such a unique company.
12-19-19, 07:20 AM
#42
Super Moderator
12-19-19, 07:21 AM
#43
72Billion USD market cap already. Shorts must be getting squeezed or cutting their losses for the 2019 year.
Tesla really does has the cutting edge automation working for them. It may not be as finely polished like the Germans (Merc, BMW, Audi). They bought out a German company which makes the machines that builds the machines. Detroit Big 3 has the union and internal management in the way of each other to respond to the market aggressively. A 1.5 billion plant upgrade to an existing operation will never outpace a highly optimized automation shop like Tesla is rolling out with GigaFactory 3, 4, 5 etc.... with capability to get production to 5k-10k vehicles per week. The more Teslas are on the road, it requires more charging stations and smart service centers to spring up. The 2020-29 decade will have us marveling how unique their buyer oriented service operations are (eg the service comes to you, or the car's autopilot takes the car in for service by itself). The era of a "SMART" vehicle has arrived and the 2020 decade will be defining it and making it desirable. The 2010-19 decade was a wake up call about EV possibilities, smartphone + advanced tech integration.
Tesla really does has the cutting edge automation working for them. It may not be as finely polished like the Germans (Merc, BMW, Audi). They bought out a German company which makes the machines that builds the machines. Detroit Big 3 has the union and internal management in the way of each other to respond to the market aggressively. A 1.5 billion plant upgrade to an existing operation will never outpace a highly optimized automation shop like Tesla is rolling out with GigaFactory 3, 4, 5 etc.... with capability to get production to 5k-10k vehicles per week. The more Teslas are on the road, it requires more charging stations and smart service centers to spring up. The 2020-29 decade will have us marveling how unique their buyer oriented service operations are (eg the service comes to you, or the car's autopilot takes the car in for service by itself). The era of a "SMART" vehicle has arrived and the 2020 decade will be defining it and making it desirable. The 2010-19 decade was a wake up call about EV possibilities, smartphone + advanced tech integration.
12-19-19, 07:27 AM
#45
Lexus Test Driver
Originally Posted by mmarshall
That's just what the Model 3 needs....more power LOL.