5 years was a conservative estimate. I do remember you agreeing with me. $600 is a magical number to ring the bell of GM/Ford/FCA into transformation for a better future or become a dumb car zombie. Some kind of market pressure is going on now to cover the billions shorted a while back. It is not my daily cup of tea to get involved on the trading. Parabolic moves are not sustainable and the market is full of history of correction to find a new base of buyers and sellers. Stay in the trend of strength and ongoing noteworthy successes. It worked well for Apple since 2002.

I really do admire an American success story and many naysayers were against Tesla for the longest time (other automakers dont want them infringing on their turf and sales). Strategically, the decision to do Model S, then X was brilliant over 5 years. It set up the framework to turbo accelerate production of Model 3 and Y and define a niche as a global automaker. Going global at such a break neck pace disrupts the norms of what it takes to produce a car. Model S and X was not a global threat product. Model 3 and Y and soon to come CyberTruck could add up to million units sold combined globally yearly once Gigafactories 1-4 are operational. It will not take much to add additional capacity in the US/China/Europe for Gigafactories 5/6/7. Honestly how can GM/Ford/FCA mount a realistic challenge to this momentum? There is a way forward and the next 1-2 years will define who's in the game for the long haul. I've already answered this in a separate post (main gist of it is enable your petrol car's to be 80% of what Tesla can do and smartly integrate the tech/hybridization to be around for the long haul, not until 100k miles and done. This approach will not need a charging infrastructure or massive battery mfg operation). We know computers have advanced significantly over 25 the last years -- car tech will also evolve, and so will the batteries as a power source. The day we see 400, 500, 750, and 1000 mile range EV's with quicker recharge capabilities will signal a gradual death of internal combustion engine complexity in favor of something simpler and needing 70% fewer parts (which also means 70% reduction in supply chain).

Now what we may be seeing is the start of a gradual shift to permitting Tesla to sell and service in all states, and modernizing dealer and franchise infrastructure. It's a global phenomenon now and Tesla has earned it on the hardest of paths you can travel to gain legitimacy and market share in the Auto biz. Everyone else before them tried to be too cute design wise (bolt, volt 1, volt 2, i3, mirai) that it wasn't really serviceable as a vehicle to have for the long term. There's far more $$ to be made on selling used cars and Teslas because they are likely to be around on the used market a lot longer than most petrol vehicles (100k ? no problem, 200k? no problem -- why is a 90k mile Tesla 2013 Model S commanding $35k used) The China EV adoption and integration will set the stage for the world to follow. Cleaning up the air in Bejing would be HUGE and a positive impact on the environment. GM/FCA/Ford and Europe have lost control of this zero emissions narrative for a greener planet.

 

Wow, did this thread ever go off-topic.

 

It will be interesting to watch the roll out of this new settlement. Hopefully it will be a relatively smooth process for buyers. I'm sure that some work arounds to the process will surface.

 

I was reading where there is no tax payment for transfers in Michigan. Makes Michigan look even dumber than usual.