The Term 'Tesla Killers' Is Dead: OEM Struggles Prove Tesla's Worth
02-04-20, 10:49 AM
#77
Lexus Fanatic
When the stock drops watch the slime monsters crawl out of their holes and declare Tesla finished. Again. The song is dance is both hilarious and pathetic at the same time.
02-04-20, 10:52 AM
#78
Pole Position
The Financial Times has a story today noting Tesla's enterprise value is around 170 bn at the time of writing.
https://www.ft.com/content/087fbe58-...2-9ddbdc86190d
Marketwatch also ran a story today noting that Tesla now has the largest enterprise value of any US automaker (at the time of writing, around 174bn)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/te...lue-2020-02-04
https://www.ft.com/content/087fbe58-...2-9ddbdc86190d
Marketwatch also ran a story today noting that Tesla now has the largest enterprise value of any US automaker (at the time of writing, around 174bn)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/te...lue-2020-02-04
02-04-20, 10:58 AM
#79
Lexus Test Driver
Thread Starter
Originally Posted by swajames
The Financial Times has a story today noting Tesla's enterprise value is around 170 bn at the time of writing.
https://www.ft.com/content/087fbe58-...2-9ddbdc86190d
Marketwatch also ran a story today noting that Tesla now has the largest enterprise value of any US automaker (at the time of writing, around 174bn)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/te...lue-2020-02-04
https://www.ft.com/content/087fbe58-...2-9ddbdc86190d
Marketwatch also ran a story today noting that Tesla now has the largest enterprise value of any US automaker (at the time of writing, around 174bn)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/te...lue-2020-02-04
The enterprise value will normalize once the short squeeze is over (yes, directly tied to market cap). It's overvalued right now.
02-04-20, 01:23 PM
#81
Here, the surge started from the low in the $200 range. 5x run up so far if it reaches 1,000 today. Between $1000-1400 is when it will peak to match previous 7x run up multiple and try to find a new 'normal' between $500-700. Oh well, timing peaks is too hard to do. On top of it is capital gains premium if held less than a year.
It is crazy in light of how GM/Ford/all other auto stocks have flat lined for so long. Everyone does their own thing and I have no position. I admire what Tesla is trying to do. It is redefining the future of 21st century transportation, on top of latest tech and wireless technologies. That is a bold statement pointing towards to an exciting future. No one took them seriously when the roadster was released. Ditto for the Model S and X. These 3 platforms defined the 3 and what potential can be for the Y. Semi and Cybertruck have yet to arrive.
At what point do you not take Tesla seriously? Microsoft made a miscalculation on the iPhone and waited for it to stumble after 5 years of an exclusive with AT&T. It opened the doors for Google/Android to fill the gap for an alternate smart-phone Operating System. When other companies start having a viable 'car operating system', Tesla could very well be up and running with 3-5 more Gigafactories. It's real with things up and running in China. It'll get more real when things are up and running in Germany. Everyone has made a miscalculation for their misfortune to letting Tesla try to prove it against all odds (and nearly failing in production hell).
It goes back to the screaming start to finish of Gigafactory 3 ramp up in as little as 10 MONTHS. Tesla has figured out the whole integration, the supply chain package and the master blueprint for a high volume factory. Simply repeat the Giga recipe and banks and countries will step up big with incentives to finance it. Win-Win At the end of the day, it does matter that its buyers like the product, it works, and willing to be patient and stick it out with Tesla for the long haul than ditch the vehicle after 3 years or when warrantee is up or repairs/maintenance are too high. The whole business model for petrol vehicles is now under scrutiny for it's complexity and short life cycle as a disposable expense. Buyers and manufacturers are taking notice. Governments are forcing the hands of petrol companies out of their comfort zone.
Elon Musk gave the greatest bit of advice to VW/Audi and they ignored it to go all EV than to fix the diesel gate debacle several years back. It may have been a blown opportunity and all they have to show for it is eTron at 100k pricing and no EV product over 50k in yearly unit sales? The margin for error now lies on the petrol vehicle side. Resistance is futile if they do not sort this out over the next 7-15 years.
02-04-20, 02:29 PM
#82
Equity is determined by property, land, building, plant, equipment etc, less liabilities like loans etc.
Market Capitalisation is determined by the stockmarket on share values multiplied by the total number of shares.
Enterprise Value is Market Capitalisation, cash on hand and loans.
Equity is the true hardware value.
Market caps and enterprise value is the stockmarket value.
It's like the example that the stockmarket analyst gave regarding a brand new $100k Maserati that is purchased for $200k vs the same Maserati being purchased for $50k.
Yes, it could have been purchased for $50k or even $200k, such that a very cheap or a very expensive price was paid - but in both cases, whether $50k or $200k purchase price, the Maserati is still only worth $100k!
Ditto the by the minute fluctuations in stockmarket value.
Every minute the stockmarket value fluctuates, but the company's hardware & liabilities is still the same.
Every minute, you are paying more/less for a share of the company, and as little as $179/share in May last year, but the company is still the same company.
The real value is one thing, but the stockmarket value is something else!
Furthermore, just because yesterday saw some 16 million shares transferred at $800 each on average - doesn't mean that a buyer or a group of buyers will agree to actually purchase ALL 184 million shares for $800 dollars/share.
For example, let's say you're a property developer, and you subdivide 1 acre into 100 identical lots, and you sold one lot for $1.5 million dollars - that doesn't mean that you will automatically be able to sell the remaining 99 lots for $1.5 million dollars each too.
Bulk purchases often have a much lower price.
.
Last edited by peteharvey; 02-04-20 at 02:52 PM.
02-04-20, 03:08 PM
#83
Lexus Test Driver
Thread Starter
Rubbish.
Equity is determined by property, land, building, plant, equipment etc, less liabilities like loans etc.
Market Capitalisation is determined by the stockmarket on share values multiplied by the total number of shares.
Enterprise Value is Market Capitalisation, cash on hand and loans.
Equity is the true hardware value.
Market caps and enterprise value is the stockmarket value.
It's like the example that the stockmarket analyst gave regarding a brand new $100k Maserati that is purchased for $200k vs the same Maserati being purchased for $50k.
Yes, it could have been purchased for $50k or even $200k, such that a very cheap or a very expensive price was paid - but in both cases, whether $50k or $200k purchase price, the Maserati is still only worth $100k!
Ditto the by the minute fluctuations in stockmarket value.
Every minute the stockmarket value fluctuates, but the company's hardware & liabilities is still the same.
Every minute, you are paying more/less for a share of the company, and as little as $179/share in May last year, but the company is still the same company.
The real value is one thing, but the stockmarket value is something else!
Furthermore, just because yesterday saw some 16 million shares transferred at $800 each on average - doesn't mean that a buyer or a group of buyers will agree to actually purchase ALL 184 million shares for $800 dollars/share.
For example, let's say you're a property developer, and you subdivide 1 acre into 100 identical lots, and you sold one lot for $1.5 million dollars - that doesn't mean that you will automatically be able to sell the remaining 99 lots for $1.5 million dollars each too.
Bulk purchases often have a much lower price.
.
Equity is determined by property, land, building, plant, equipment etc, less liabilities like loans etc.
Market Capitalisation is determined by the stockmarket on share values multiplied by the total number of shares.
Enterprise Value is Market Capitalisation, cash on hand and loans.
Equity is the true hardware value.
Market caps and enterprise value is the stockmarket value.
It's like the example that the stockmarket analyst gave regarding a brand new $100k Maserati that is purchased for $200k vs the same Maserati being purchased for $50k.
Yes, it could have been purchased for $50k or even $200k, such that a very cheap or a very expensive price was paid - but in both cases, whether $50k or $200k purchase price, the Maserati is still only worth $100k!
Ditto the by the minute fluctuations in stockmarket value.
Every minute the stockmarket value fluctuates, but the company's hardware & liabilities is still the same.
Every minute, you are paying more/less for a share of the company, and as little as $179/share in May last year, but the company is still the same company.
The real value is one thing, but the stockmarket value is something else!
Furthermore, just because yesterday saw some 16 million shares transferred at $800 each on average - doesn't mean that a buyer or a group of buyers will agree to actually purchase ALL 184 million shares for $800 dollars/share.
For example, let's say you're a property developer, and you subdivide 1 acre into 100 identical lots, and you sold one lot for $1.5 million dollars - that doesn't mean that you will automatically be able to sell the remaining 99 lots for $1.5 million dollars each too.
Bulk purchases often have a much lower price.
.
02-04-20, 04:39 PM
#85
A company's worth isn't based on the value of its assets today. This is where you are completely wrong. A company's worth is on the expected cash flows it will generate int he future. The stock market is an attempt to VALUE that cash stream in the future. Its the inherent worth of the company which is based on FUTURE CASH FLOW. Balance Sheet Equity value only captures what the value of its assets - liabilities are today which does not in any way, shape or form calculate the VALUE of the company. ENTERPRISE VALUE is based on FUTURE CASH FLOWS because it is literally Market Cap + liabilities - debt. Again, you don't understand how companies are valued and what TRUE value means.
There is more to life than just the stock market.
Like that Maserati we were talking about.
It is worth $100k, but it can be purchased at a bargain for just $50k, or someone can be totally ripped off for $200k.
02-04-20, 04:46 PM
#86
Lexus Fanatic
02-04-20, 05:09 PM
#87
Lexus Test Driver
Thread Starter
Originally Posted by peteharvey
You're thinking of money & value on the stockmarket again.
There is more to life than just the stock market.
Like that Maserati we were talking about.
It is worth $100k, but it can be purchased at a bargain for just $50k, or someone can be totally ripped off for $200k.
There is more to life than just the stock market.
Like that Maserati we were talking about.
It is worth $100k, but it can be purchased at a bargain for just $50k, or someone can be totally ripped off for $200k.
02-05-20, 09:52 AM
#88
Pole Position
So yesterday's stock gain is given back, reportedly as a Tesla exec made some comments that China deliveries may be a bit delayed by the epidemic. But a lot will be due to profit taking.
But that's OK. Wiser heads were not over-excited by the big gain, and will not be worried by the (expected) corresponding drop. The trend is what matters, and TSLA has more to give IMO.
But that's OK. Wiser heads were not over-excited by the big gain, and will not be worried by the (expected) corresponding drop. The trend is what matters, and TSLA has more to give IMO.
02-05-20, 10:40 AM
#89
What are you talking about. Unlike a Maserati, you can't buy Tesla stock for less than the market is asking. That is the difference. The market is efficient. Personal sales of cars are not. If you think you can buy stock at a discount vs market, you can't. You may think it's overvalued but all you can do is not buy the stock. Completely difference context.
(Shorts are sorta doing something similar by betting that a stock price will go down so they can buy back for less than they paid but it's still not at the same moment in time)