here we go...

*** Automotive November Forecast: Seasonality Weakens U.S. Auto Sales After Months of Recovery

ATLANTA, Nov. 24, 2020 – U.S. auto sales for November are expected to show a market that is now weakening after months of recovery from April’s historic low seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). The sales pace for light vehicles is expected to fall to 15.8 million this month, down from last year’s 17.0 million pace, but more importantly down from last month’s 16.2 million level. A decline in November would be the second monthly decline in a row after the market’s post-COVID‑19 peak of 16.3 million in September and suggests the market is weakening heading into the holiday season.

November’s SAAR calculation has large seasonal adjustments this year. There are only 23 selling days compared to last November’s 26, and there are five fewer days than last month. As a result, vehicle sales volume is expected to be down significantly; with the adjustment, a sales volume decline of 8-9% is a “flat” market. This month, sales volume is expected to decrease nearly 15%, but after adjustments, this would represent a 7% decline from last year’s selling pace. This is still a relatively strong level given the headwinds facing the market, including a surge in the pandemic and on-going high levels of unemployment claims.

One market headwind is improving, however, albeit just slightly. According to *** Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough, product availability has improved: “The tight inventory situation, where available products at dealerships were drawn down to very low levels, reached a peak in late summer. However, factory production has improved while sales pace has slowed, and the combination is allowing dealerships to replenish somewhat. Overall, supply still remains far below last year’s levels, and holiday sales may slow if buyers can’t find what they want.”

It’s hard to know if a robust sales pace will continue through December and into 2021 due to so many potential threats and unknowns facing new-vehicle buyers. However, with factories now operating close the pre-pandemic levels, production should not be the hurdle it was earlier in the year. The economic recovery is also continuing to show modest improvements, so there is little reason to expect that the vehicle market will make substantial changes to its current recovery path in the coming months. However, there remain many risks that could hold back sales including a large COVID-19 wave through the winter, a second dip in the economy, and ongoing U.S. politics – all potential disruptions that could hamper vehicle sales.

NOVEMBER 2020 SALES FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS

• New light-vehicle sales are forecast to fall to 1.21 million units, down 14.8% compared to November 2019. When compared to last month, sales are expected to fall around 150,000 units, or nearly 11%.
• The SAAR in November 2020 is estimated to be 15.8 million, below last year’s 17.0 million level, and a decrease from last month’s 16.2 million pace.
• The *** Automotive full-year forecast remains at 14.3 million units, down 16% from 2019. New retail will perform better than fleet, down 9%, while fleet is forecast to come in near 1.9 million, down 42%.

NOVEMBER 2020 SALES FORECAST

All percentages are based in raw volume, not daily selling rate.


*** Automotive November Forecast: Seasonality Weakens U.S. Auto Sales After Months of Recovery - *** Automotive Inc. (coxautoinc.com)

 

From Automotive News:

 

https://www.hyundainews.com/en-us/releases/3210

Hyundai Motor America Reports November 2020 Sales

• Total Sales Increased 4%, Retail Up 1% on a Daily Selling Rate Basis
• Total Sonata Sales Increased 39%
• Combined Green Vehicle Retail Sales Up 18%
  

FOUNTAIN VALLEY, Calif., Dec. 1, 2020 – Hyundai Motor America reported total November sales of 55,171 units, a 9% decrease compared with November 2019. Retail sales were down 11%. There were three fewer selling days and one less selling weekend in November 2020. On a daily selling rate basis, Hyundai total sales were up 4% and retail sales increased 1% year over year.

“We were able to maintain our industry-beating sales momentum despite quirks in the reporting calendar and added COVID-19 challenges,” said Randy Parker, vice president, National Sales, Hyundai Motor America. “We’ve never had a better product lineup and with the all-new Elantra hitting dealerships now and an onslaught of new SUV, performance and eco-friendly vehicles on their way, we are extremely optimistic about the future of Hyundai.”

Hyundai sold 45,690 retail units in November, with SUVs representing 68% of the total retail mix. Retail sales rose for Palisade (+20%), Venue (+322%), and Hyundai’s entire eco-friendly lineup (+18%), including Sonata Hybrid, the Ioniq family, Kona EV and Nexo. Hyundai also sold 8,242 total Sonata units, the best month in 2020 and an increase of 39%, while Kona total sales jumped 43%.

November Total Sales Summary
Nov-20

Nov-19

2020 YTD

2019 YTD

Hyundai

55,171

60,601

555,991

624,051



November Product and Corporate Activities

• Tucson North American Debut: Hyundai unveiled its innovative 2022 Tucson SUV
• SUV Blitz: Hyundai will introduce 12 new or enhanced SUVs in the U.S. through 2021
• N Expansion: An exciting cadence of seven new N and N Line models in sports, sedan and SUV segments will come to the U.S. through 2022
• Eco-Focused Lineup: Hyundai will offer 10 electrified, eco-focused vehicles by the end of 2022, including seven SUVs and three car models
• Best SUV Brand: S. News & World Report named Hyundai as the 2021 Best SUV Brand
• AEB Achievement: During the past year, 96% of the Hyundai vehicles produced for sale in the U.S. offered Automatic Emergency Braking (AEB) as standard equipment
• Sonata Residual Value: The2021 Sonata won the prestigious ALG Residual Value Award
• Racing Wins: Hyundai drivers in the Hyundai Veloster N TCR won the IMSA Michelin Pilot Challenge Drivers’ Championship, while Hyundai took home the Manufacturers’ Championship
• Leadership Awards: Automotive News named Olabisi Boyle, Claudia Marquez and Angela Zepeda among the 100 leading women in the auto industry and selected José Muñoz and Zepeda as All-Stars.

 

https://insidemazda.mazdausa.com/pre...les-results-2/

Mazda Reports November Sales Results

December 1, 2020

IRVINE, Calif. (Dec. 1, 2020) – Mazda North American Operations (MNAO) today reported total November sales of 21,752 vehicles, a decrease of 10.8 percent compared to November 2019. Year-to-date sales totaled 247,768 vehicles; a decrease of 1.7 percent compared to the same time last year. With 23 selling days in November, compared to 26 the year prior, the company posted an increase of .09 percent on a Daily Selling Rate (DSR) basis.

CPO sales totaled 5,115 vehicles in November, an increase of .04 percent compared to November 2019, and achieved its best November.

Mazda Motor de Mexico (MMdM) reported November sales of 5,768 vehicles, a decrease 6.9 percent compared to November last year. Year-to-date sales decreased 23.8 percent, with 41,274 vehicles sold.



Mazda North American Operations is headquartered in Irvine, California, and oversees the sales, marketing, parts and customer service support of Mazda vehicles in the United States and Mexico through approximately 620 dealers. Operations in Mexico are managed by Mazda Motor de Mexico in Mexico City. For more information on Mazda vehicles, including photography and B-roll, please visit the online Mazda media center at InsideMazda.MazdaUSA.com/Newsroom.

Follow MNAO’s social media channels through Twitter and Instagram at @MazdaUSA and Facebook at Facebook.com/MazdaUSA.

 

Leave it to Mazda to have double digit declines on their SUVs.

 

Most for November expect to see declines due to the calendar changes. Look at their Year to Date. CX-9 is up, despite being well into its lifecycle. CX-5 seems to have take a slight hit, likely some cannibalization by the new CX-30 that has proven to be a far stronger draw than the CX-3. So overall their SUV's are up year to date, which given all the challenges with sales and production this year around the globe is fairly remarkable.

 

https://acuranews.com/en-US/releases...-sales-results

American Honda Reports November Sales Results

• Release

December 1, 2020 American Honda Total

102,614
-23.4%
Cars

39,830
-26.9%
Trucks

62,784
-21%
Total

11,891
-17.9%
Cars

3,245
-17.5%
Trucks

8,646
-18.1%
Total

90,723
-24.1%
Cars

36,585
-27.7%
Trucks

54,138
-21.4%


See accompanying spreadsheet for complete results.

 

https://media.subaru.com/pressreleas...ber-2020-sales

December 1, 2020 , Camden, N.J. -

Subaru of America, Inc. Reports November 2020 Sales

• Best-ever November for Crosstrek
• Seventh consecutive month of 50,000+ vehicle sales in 2020

Subaru of America, Inc. today reported 50,413 vehicle sales for November 2020, an 11.4 percent decrease compared with November 2019. November also marked the seventh consecutive month of 50,000+ vehicle sales for the automaker in 2020.

As the top performing carline by volume, Outback sales increased 3.5 percent in November 2020 compared with the same month a year ago. Crosstrek achieved its best November ever with 12,841 sales, a 23.7 percent increase over the same month in 2019. BRZ posted a 12.2 percent increase, while WRX/STI posted 14.2 percent increase in November.

“In a sales month that was shorter than usual, our retailers rose to the challenge to deliver steady sales during this time of uncertainty,” said Thomas J. Doll, President and CEO, Subaru of America, Inc. “We look forward to the December holiday season and another month of opportunity to deliver the safest, most reliable and family-friendly vehicles on the market.”

“Our Subaru retailers again delivered a successful result and brought us a step closer to exceeding our forecast of 600,000 units this year,” said Jeff Walters, Senior Vice President of Sales. “December car-buyers have an extra incentive to choose Subaru this holiday season thanks to our thirteenth annual Subaru Share the Love® Event. With every new Subaru purchased or leased at participating Subaru retailers nationwide, Subaru will donate $250 to the customer’s choice of charity.”

Following eleven consecutive years of sales records, Subaru reported year-to-date sales of 548,384, a 14 percent decrease compared to the same period in 2019.
Carline Nov-20 Nov-19 % Chg Nov-20 Nov-19 % Chg
MTD MTD MTD YTD YTD YTD Forester 12,211 16,386 -25.5% 160,990 163,743 -1.7% Impreza 3,174 5,686 -44.2% 39,658 60,675 -34.6% WRX/STI 1,714 1,501 14.2% 19,210 20,277 -5.3% Ascent 5,231 7,545 -30.7% 60,931 73,678 -17.3% Legacy 2,192 2,801 -21.7% 24,718 31,648 -21.9% Outback 12,921 12,481 3.5% 136,022 164,517 -17.3% BRZ 129 115 12.2% 2,096 2,203 -4.9% Crosstrek 12,841 10,378 23.7% 104,759 121,012 -13.4% TOTAL 50,413 56,893 -11.4% 548,384 637,753 -14.0%
Moving into the final month of the year, the Subaru Share the Love® Event will run through January 4, 2021. Subaru of America will donate $250 for every new Subaru vehicle purchased or leased to the customer’s choice of the following national charities: The American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals® (ASPCA®), Make-A-Wish®, Meals on Wheels America and National Park Foundation or a hometown charity selected by participating Subaru retailers. In the program’s thirteenth consecutive year, Subaru and participating retailers hope to exceed a grand total of $200 million donated to charities since the Subaru Share the Love Event started in 2008.

 

I'm not sure it is a 1 month thing. Every month I have the same thought every time I see their sales numbers. Honda is in the same boat with the Pilot. They cant seem to get consistent growth or just stability.

 

But their total year over year still speaks to what they're doing in the bigger picture. I don't think you can expect to see any sort of normal or "stable" results this year. And that's true out of anyone. I think they're doing pretty well given the situation of this year.

 

All the analysts seem to be in the agreement that this was just a slight decline. YOY markets resilient.

1) Less selling days
2) Low inventory
3) Higher Gross
4) low incentives

The sole marker I think thats better in analyzing markets right now are incentives; lease rates, aprs, and incentives. Right now incentives match the analysis. If we see mfgs pour those in on MY21s, forget about resilience.

 

https://www.kiamedia.com/us/en/media...increase-of-83

KIA MOTORS AMERICA’S MOMENTUM CONTINUES WITH SELLING-DAY ADJUSTED YEAR-OVER-YEAR SALES INCREASE OF 8.3-PERCENT

12/01/20 ID: 16820Kia Makes Gains Despite Fewer Selling Days in November and a Declining U.S. Market; Telluride SUV Posts Best-Ever November Sales

IRVINE, Calif., December 1, 2020 – Building upon record breaking sales in October, Kia Motors America announced November sales of 47,897 units in a month that saw fewer selling days and consumers increasingly staying home due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Kia’s wide range of light trucks – Soul, Seltos, Sportage, Sorento, Telluride and Sedona – accounted for 65-percent of November retail sales volume. November also saw an uptick in midsize sedan sales performance, with the all-new K5 posting an 8.1-percent year-over-year increase in a segment that experienced an 11-percent decrease in sales year-over-year.

“Despite increased restrictions imposed nationwide due to the pandemic, Kia sales were brisk throughout November,” said Bill Peffer, vice president, sales operations, Kia Motors America. “And just like with Telluride, dealers are reporting that 2021 Sorento models are being sold before they are unloaded off delivery trucks. As we move into the last month of 2020, we are confident that the increased attention generated by Sorento and the entire Kia model line-up will propel Kia well into the first quarter.”

 

The only vehicle that moved the needle up from Nov 2019 over Nov 2020 has been the IS. Every single other model has a drop in the Lexus lineup

Partly due to I assume generation clearance and attractive incentives for purchase or lease.

 

Aside from the usual suspects like the LS, it's not due to lack of demand. Lexus has been suffering inadequate supply issues the whole year due to COVID.

 

I have read that too but I have to question what does that really mean.