Car Chat General discussion about Lexus, other auto manufacturers and automotive news.

GM to drop ICEs by 2035

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 01-29-21 | 08:34 AM
  #16  
Bob04's Avatar
Bob04
Lead Lap
 
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,706
Likes: 295
From: SC
Default

Again, 3 months ago they were part of a lawsuit against Cali emissions regulations. Now, they have suddenly figured out how to convert their entire business to electric in 15 years when they haven't really been successful doing anything electric.

Yeah, nothing but marketing. They know nobody is going to hold them accountable if they change their mind or just flat fail. It's not like they are bound by a contract or something.
Old 01-29-21 | 08:39 AM
  #17  
EZZ's Avatar
EZZ
Lexus Test Driver
 
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 7,460
Likes: 228
From: CA
Default

Originally Posted by tex2670
Can't tell if you are joking with the winking emoji. My analogy to iPhones had nothing to do with how much electricity they consume. It's the shift in adoption of the technology.

Most of the apps when the iPhone came out were games. No one paid bills by their phones in 2007. No one unlocked their cars or houses. The smartphone technology has caused so many things we do in our daily lives to change in a way that you would not have thought possible in 2006.

And again--I do not believe a public company like GM or a state like CA would set 2035 as a goal like this if they -- looking at all the data, science and industry information that you and I have not studied -- thought it was a "crap shoot" to achieve. They aren't flying by the seats of their pants like we do on internet forums--they are doing the hard work to determine if this is an achievable goal. There's a wide spectrum between "no guarantee" and "crap shoot."
It's not just California. There are many countries that are adopting this timeline. You are right. If the opportunity for revenue is there, someone will take advantage of the opportunity. This is a wealth shift from oil to utilities and you can be damn sure the utilities are salivating to take advantage of this. This shift to EV and autonomous auto will bring in a massive structural change to our transportation ecosystem for sure.
Old 01-29-21 | 08:44 AM
  #18  
mmarshall's Avatar
mmarshall
Thread Starter
Lexus Fanatic
 
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 91,710
Likes: 89
From: Virginia/D.C. suburbs
Default

Originally Posted by Bob04
Again, 3 months ago they were part of a lawsuit against Cali emissions regulations. Now, they have suddenly figured out how to convert their entire business to electric in 15 years when they haven't really been successful doing anything electric.
To be fair, GM's Impact, back in the 1990s, was arguably the first successful BEV in the modern vehicle age. The problem was that they pulled the plug on it too soon (no pun intended).

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you on GM's notorious PR and marketing (I never thought much of it myself, despite the fact that I like most of their products)....but just pointing out that, not only with the Impact but the Chevy Bolt, they would not necessarily be starting from scratch.
Old 01-29-21 | 08:54 AM
  #19  
Bob04's Avatar
Bob04
Lead Lap
 
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,706
Likes: 295
From: SC
Default

Well, GM is smart. Everybody knows green energy is much cheaper. That's why it's gonna takes tens of trillions of dollars to implement. And the hot new idea to tax everyone on every mile they drive isn't paying for that.

But think about that. You are literally going to be taxed for leaving your home. I'm sure GM is looking to get some of that money through government subsidies.

Last edited by Bob04; 01-29-21 at 09:02 AM.
Old 01-29-21 | 09:02 AM
  #20  
Toys4RJill's Avatar
Toys4RJill
Lexus Fanatic
 
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 31,740
Likes: 73
From: ON/NY
Default

Originally Posted by Bob04
But think about that. You are literally going to be taxed for leaving your home.
Of course. It will cost more money to drive a green EV than it would be to drive a ICE at some point. It just hasn’t happened yet.
Old 01-29-21 | 09:03 AM
  #21  
UDel's Avatar
UDel
Lexus Fanatic
 
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 12,274
Likes: 296
From: ------
Default

Originally Posted by EZZ
You don't see rolling blackouts in the middle of the night when 99% of EVs charge. California is planning to upgrade infrastructure to accommodate the EVs...why wouldn't it given its a giant source of revenue. Other states will follow because there is money to be made.
Where is California getting all this money to upgrade infrastructure for them forcing EV's on the population, the middle class/people with money have been/are fleeing Cali in droves so they will want a big government(taxpayer) check of course. It is not just the infrastructure Cali is going to have to upgrade which will cost a fortune, it is also the electric grid, California does not have the electrical grid/capacity to charge millions more EV's and those power needs won't magically come from solar panels, wind mills, or dams. After all that it still won't make any difference with climate and will just create more problems.

Last edited by UDel; 01-29-21 at 09:14 AM.
Old 01-29-21 | 09:05 AM
  #22  
UDel's Avatar
UDel
Lexus Fanatic
 
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 12,274
Likes: 296
From: ------
Default

Originally Posted by Bob04
Well, GM is smart. Everybody knows green energy is much cheaper. That's why it's gonna takes tens of trillions of dollars to implement. And the hot new idea to tax everyone on every mile they drive isn't paying for that.

But think about that. You are literally going to be taxed for leaving your home. I'm sure GM is looking to get some of that money through government subsidies.
"Green energy" is not cheaper then gas/oil, it is very expensive to make/implement. EV's are very expensive to engineer/make and they don't make as big profits as IC cars unless you price them very high.
Old 01-29-21 | 09:11 AM
  #23  
Lend0's Avatar
Lend0
Intermediate
 
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 346
Likes: 65
From: Las Vegas
Default

Mary Barra continues to be the CEO GM deserves.
Old 01-29-21 | 09:13 AM
  #24  
UDel's Avatar
UDel
Lexus Fanatic
 
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 12,274
Likes: 296
From: ------
Default

Originally Posted by Bob04
Again, 3 months ago they were part of a lawsuit against Cali emissions regulations. Now, they have suddenly figured out how to convert their entire business to electric in 15 years when they haven't really been successful doing anything electric.

Yeah, nothing but marketing. They know nobody is going to hold them accountable if they change their mind or just flat fail. It's not like they are bound by a contract or something.
I would say they were pressured to make this statement/move and are expecting/getting money/favors to do this and if it doesn't work out they will expect a bailout. It is really pointless to make a statement like that unless you are just trying to appeal to certain groups. EV's aside from Tesla's simply aren't selling so this can be a big mistake if most buyers by then still prefer ICE vehicles, then GM, Ford will be expecting another huge bailout from taxpayers if their EV's aren't selling they spent a fortune on. I also have a feeling they will get a carve out in this mandates/moves to still sell their big ICE Pickups and SUV's. Forced EV mandates are going to create more problems then anything it might help with, it is more about control, power, money, politics, optics then actually solving or addressing anything.
Old 01-29-21 | 09:23 AM
  #25  
tex2670's Avatar
tex2670
Lexus Champion
 
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,166
Likes: 11
From: Southeastern PA
Default

Originally Posted by Bob04
Again, 3 months ago they were part of a lawsuit against Cali emissions regulations. Now, they have suddenly figured out how to convert their entire business to electric in 15 years when they haven't really been successful doing anything electric.

Yeah, nothing but marketing. They know nobody is going to hold them accountable if they change their mind or just flat fail. It's not like they are bound by a contract or something.
You can be working toward an EV future, but also try and get MPG thresholds lowered at the same time. Those positions aren't mutually exclusive. For example, lower MPG standards would allow GM to put more R&D funds to EV tech, rather than upgrades to ICE for higher fuel economy.
Originally Posted by UDel
I would say they were pressured to make this statement/move and are expecting/getting money/favors to do this and if it doesn't work out they will expect a bailout. It is really pointless to make a statement like that unless you are just trying to appeal to certain groups. EV's aside from Tesla's simply aren't selling so this can be a big mistake if most buyers by then still prefer ICE vehicles, then GM, Ford will be expecting another huge bailout from taxpayers if their EV's aren't selling they spent a fortune on. I also have a feeling they will get a carve out in this mandates/moves to still sell their big ICE Pickups and SUV's. Forced EV mandates are going to create more problems then anything it might help with, it is more about control, power, money, politics, optics then actually solving or addressing anything.
Public companies can't just say anything they want for "marketing purposes". Forward looking statements can impact stock price.

Last edited by tex2670; 01-29-21 at 09:26 AM.
Old 01-29-21 | 09:28 AM
  #26  
Bob04's Avatar
Bob04
Lead Lap
 
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,706
Likes: 295
From: SC
Default

Originally Posted by UDel
"Green energy" is not cheaper then gas/oil, it is very expensive to make/implement. EV's are very expensive to engineer/make and they don't make as big profits as IC cars unless you price them very high.
I was being factious. The only way it will be cheaper is if the gov steps in and forces oil/gas to be higher artificially. As EVs naturally (or unnaturally) become a large percentage of the market, I could see gas at less than a $1 a gallon due to increased supply and dwindling demand. That will slow the transition to EVs unless people are forced to go to them.

I don't think it will matter anyway. I think we are headed to a financial collapse that will rival the great depression, and we will laugh about the tens of trillions we were dreaming about spending. It was coming anyway, but COVID and other recent development have accelerated it.
Old 01-29-21 | 09:31 AM
  #27  
EZZ's Avatar
EZZ
Lexus Test Driver
 
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 7,460
Likes: 228
From: CA
Default

Originally Posted by UDel
Where is California getting all this money to upgrade infrastructure for them forcing EV's on the population, the middle class/people with money have been/are fleeing Cali in droves so they will want a big government(taxpayer) check of course. It is not just the infrastructure Cali is going to have to upgrade which will cost a fortune, it is also the electric grid, California does not have the electrical grid/capacity to charge millions more EV's and those power needs won't magically come from solar panels, wind mills, or dams. After all that it still won't make any difference with climate and will just create more problems.
Why would California pay for a private sector utility? The utilities will do what they always do and raise debt to build out infrastructure. California also charges an EV tax to offset the gas tax so no money lost there. If there is an opportunity to make a lot of money through additional infrastructure investments economics dictates someone will take advantage of the opportunity it. This will happen.
Old 01-29-21 | 09:36 AM
  #28  
EZZ's Avatar
EZZ
Lexus Test Driver
 
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 7,460
Likes: 228
From: CA
Default

Originally Posted by UDel
"Green energy" is not cheaper then gas/oil, it is very expensive to make/implement. EV's are very expensive to engineer/make and they don't make as big profits as IC cars unless you price them very high.
EVs are much much cheaper to develop than ICE. Thats why you see a gazillion startup EVs springing up. The most expensive part of ICE is the drivetrain development and EVs have that portion already taken care of with off-the-shelf components. The only barrier to high margin is battery cost and Tesla's 4680 cell will drive down cost by 50% at the pack level. Thats $75/kwh which will make it cheaper than an equivalent ICE in a couple years (magic number of equivalency is $100 / kwh). Tesla already has higher gross margins (cost to make vehicle) than most other traditional ICE OEMs. Once you get to scale, EVs are far cheaper.
Old 01-29-21 | 11:14 AM
  #29  
Bob04's Avatar
Bob04
Lead Lap
 
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,706
Likes: 295
From: SC
Default

Originally Posted by EZZ
Why would California pay for a private sector utility? The utilities will do what they always do and raise debt to build out infrastructure. California also charges an EV tax to offset the gas tax so no money lost there. If there is an opportunity to make a lot of money through additional infrastructure investments economics dictates someone will take advantage of the opportunity it. This will happen.
If solar is the answer and the world is at risk, why do we have a 55% tariff on Chinese solar cells?
Old 01-29-21 | 11:27 AM
  #30  
EZZ's Avatar
EZZ
Lexus Test Driver
 
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 7,460
Likes: 228
From: CA
Default

Originally Posted by Bob04
If solar is the answer and the world is at risk, why do we have a 55% tariff on Chinese solar cells?
To protect the rest of the players. LG and Panasonic make far better panels at higher cost though. I guess you don't want them going out of business due to their cost structures being way higher. Everything with China and tariffs is political too so can't really go into deep arguments on that subject here.




All times are GMT -7. The time now is 06:25 AM.