I won't click on it for monetization reasons. The movement is now focused on self-driving cars and synthetic meat and it's part of an absurd dystopian plan.

Suffice to say, gas can reach $10.00 per gallon and it won't affect my driving habits. It will, however, crush the middle class but that's probably part of the push for UBI.

 

True. But not just replaced. Completely redesigned and replaced. People keep thinking that solar and wind are huge benefits, but a lot of that energy is wasted due to the fact that there is very little storage on the current grid.

What is going to happen is the greenies are going to demand control of our appliances and only let you use them when they think you should use them. Demand side management will be a bigger part of the solution than most believe, and people won't be happy with it.

 

Banning the sale of any ICE would essentially destroy the auto industry, so the power grid can handle the lower than expect usage. Hybrid sales have only taken off the last 2yrs, even at Toyota and this could just be the beginning once more and more people realize that it really is the best of both worlds. It will be well beyond 2035 before a full transition into EV. Heck maybe Hydrogen will start to take off by then. Reality is, all this talk of what happens 10 to 20yrs down the road is a moot point.

 

i finally watched the video... nice presentation but i'm not convinced in the math. would have to take more time to break it down, but when he says stuff like we increased our electric production 5x since 1960 but we 'only' need 30% more to have everyone drive EVs that's problematic sleight of hand. he says in 2000 we produced 3.8TKWh electricity (vs. 0.76 in 1960). he says we need 30% more, so that's 30% of 3.8 which is an additional 1.14TKWh. but that doesn't factor in:
- include increased demand due to population increases
- economic growth
- likely more PUBLIC transportation moving to EVs as well (and its recharging needs)
- the 'peakiness' of demand and the need to have THAT capacity (not average)
- the need to mitigate outages / lowered output from solar and wind in foul weather (hello TX right now?)

bottom line - nice presentation but we are DECADES away from some kind of 'everyone driving an EV' dream.

and all that demand though WILL drive up utility bills.

he mentioned average EV owner would see 50% increase in residential electric usage. well for me that would add about $150 to my electric bill. i do NOT spend that much on gasoline today!

 

To be fair, you are in Florida so there comes a point where solar pay back becomes enticing due to owning an EV. Also, 1 EV driven 12k miles per year adds about $60 per month in expensive California. I guess if you add in 2 cars, it would be $120 per month. To supply more EVs, the utilities have to run at full capacity even at night. You can't have peaks and valleys like they currently have. The demand will be more steady through the entire 24 hours. Our utility current has heavy incentives to drive usage to 12am-6am and they've figured out how to manage the EV load fairly easily with pricing. You can't imagine how many Teslas are in suburban California right now and they are managing well even though they had no clue this EV onslaught was upon them. Of course there are infra upgrades coming soon as they know the demand will get higher but they are salivating at this new revenue opportunity.

Overall though, the US doesn't have to worry for another couple decades. Plenty of time to plan for this transition.

 

Going all electric with cars is going to require a big increase in base load capacity, most of which is nuclear and fossil fuel powered. Unless something changes drastically, it will take 15 years from start to finish to get a new nuclear plant online. So, no, 20 years isn't plenty of time.

And don't believe the lies that base load capacity can be provided by renewables. They are nowhere near capable of doing so now, and won't be for a long time.

 

In 20 years, you'll see maybe half and half sales of EV to ICE. I don't think anyone believes the entire fleet can transition to EVs by 2035 (which isn't realistic). In 20 years, i don't even know if we'll be allowed to drive our cars anymore with autonomous cars coming .

 

so in other words, the video, while interesting, is irrelevant.

 

To be fair you are in California, probably by a big city like LA, SF, SD I assume so your situation/where you live is totally different from the rest of the US. EV's and Solar Panels/power for housing is not popular in the rest of the US and unrealistic in many parts which is why it should not be forced/mandated on the country, let the market decide if it wants EV's and other(pricey) forms of energy and the extra costs, problems, taxes, regulations it will bring for almost no real benefit.

 

In the US I don't think you will see half the sales of vehicles being EV unless they are unfortunately forced/mandated on the population, we heard similar things about hybrids when they first started appearing and that never happened, even Prius sales have fallen in the last few years.

 

Hybrids were a fad that pretty much played out and mostly went away, in many ways thanks to proper EVs such as Tesla.

 

if you're thinking of prius then maybe, but more mainstream recenty entrants like crv hybrid, rav4 hybrid, various hyundai hybrids, camry, accord, and corolla hybrids, etc., are selling in very large numbers.

 

I think it will be half the sales because of regulations. You can't force a transition this massive without the government driving the change. This in turn will force auto makers to improve on EVs and others to build infrastructure. Also, if many other countries adopt EVs, the momentum will force the US to do the same. They all go hand in hand.

 

That is the big problem and why it shouldn't be done and why it is troubling there is going to be a attempt to do it. There are far greater problems that need to be addressed and have money spent on then politicians/gov forcing people into EV's mainly for politicians/certain players benefit and giving them more power/control over us. Forcing is normally a bad thing especially when it involves gov./politicians.

Right now Texas is having major rolling power outages because "green" windmills are freezing up and inoperable, thank god they did not rely on windmills/"green" energy for all their energy and other sources can supplement it, 20% or so was enough to cause major issues, people can and will die because of this, on mass scales if we listen to politicians and let them force it on people. In Germany power is having to be supplemented by non renewables because solar panels are covered with snow and windmills are frozen, again thank god they have not implemented a full "green new deal" to rid non renewables or else many people would be freezing to death but sadly that is where we are heading when politicians/gov force this on people for their own agenda's.

 

Texas is having power outages not JUST because wind turbines are failing, natural gas lines are having issues due to freezing. As for wind power I am 100% against it I think turbines are ugly, unreliable and don't deliver enough energy given the cost. Also the wind turbines used in Texas have no built in deicing system unlike versions that are used in cold climates. Either way I hate wind power it is a stain on the landscape.

You will no doubt see a meme (or have already) of a helicopter deicing a turbine and will be told that is happening right now. It's not, the picture is from 2016 but we live in a post truth world so it won't matter.