chip shortage
#31
Lexus Champion
The issue is that other large fabs that do produce on older nodes are also in China like SMIC. Ti is mostly analog chips so they produce their own designs and aren't digital chips like TSMC makes and IBM divested their fabs which became Global Foundries which is a 2nd tier fab. The Other humongous fab besides TSMC is now Samsung but they produce mostly for the worlds consumer electronics like smartphones. Smartphone chips are way more profitable too so understandable that auto chips play second fiddle.
#32
Lexus Fanatic
Originally Posted by EZZ
Fine...you win. Elon is completely stupid for not predicting a chip shortage and not inventing technology that can circumvent the the modern integrated circuit. His genius credentials are now officially revoked
#33
Lexus Fanatic
Thread Starter
iTrader: (20)
After all, he heads a company that actually uses a fair number of them.
#34
Lexus Champion
#35
exclusive matchup
iTrader: (4)
just wondering why, if it's over a year out, why can't car companies design new or repurpose other chips to do what they need? i get that cost is an issue, but heck, apple and google can bring out new phones every year with new custom chips. why do car companies have to just say 'oh well, we'll wait over a year to get the same old chips we've been using for years'... there's got to be some degree of workarounds.
one thing we know is elon musk is demanding and creative... i doubt he'd blame a chip shortage for his spaceships (granted much lower production volume!) - i just have a sense he's going to outflank other traditional makers who are moribund and stuck with huge complex supply chains.
one thing we know is elon musk is demanding and creative... i doubt he'd blame a chip shortage for his spaceships (granted much lower production volume!) - i just have a sense he's going to outflank other traditional makers who are moribund and stuck with huge complex supply chains.
when it comes to automotive industry, due to safety concern, qualification cycle is far longer than phones. from the time they design the system and confirm on choices of chips, it will be at least 4-5 years to go through all the qualifications before those systems are actually used in production vehicles that run on the streets. there is no workaround, they can't risk changing something and rush to the market without going through the whole qualification process again. if anything happens out there, it's crap load of problems for them.
so yes, all the cars you see out there, the systems in there were designed 5 years ago. that goes for mb, bmw, toyota, etc... tesla is no exception either.
you clearly have absolutely no idea about IC chips manufacturing, i suggest you read up on this instead of throwing out random claims. this has nothing to do with whether must is brilliant or not. he is super smart but some stuff simply takes time. tsmc is the world's biggest and most advanced chip manufacturing company and they are at full capacity. they are building new fab in arizona and still it will take time to build the damn place let alone get it into production. what can elon possibly do? collect infinity stones and snap his fingers?
#36
EV ftw!!!
you clearly have absolutely no idea about IC chips manufacturing, i suggest you read up on this instead of throwing out random claims. this has nothing to do with whether must is brilliant or not. he is super smart but some stuff simply takes time. tsmc is the world's biggest and most advanced chip manufacturing company and they are at full capacity. they are building new fab in arizona and still it will take time to build the damn place let alone get it into production. what can elon possibly do? collect infinity stones and snap his fingers?
#37
Lexus Fanatic
you clearly have absolutely no idea about IC chips manufacturing,
........and you do?
#39
Lexus Champion
I'm aware. I had a very long running bet with a friend (10 years!) and Elon on SNL confirmed it.
#40
Lexus Test Driver
What he says is absolutely true and I've worked in the silicon industry for over 15 years so yeah, I absolutely do. IC manufacturing is the most complex manufacturing process ever created and the newest fabs cost about $40B to make. Elon is a genius in many respects such as business and rockets and EVs but that doesn't make him capable of semi manufacturing as that isn't even in his field. To even suggest he can magically circumvent the integrated circuit sounds pretty naive.
#41
Lexus Champion
FABs have insane levels of tech, they are getting close to atom scale lithography. What blows my mind is a die can be made having billions of transistors with essentially zero defects. The industry went the opposite of what many predicted, wasn't long ago it was thought Intel's fabrication superiority could never be surpassed and having your own FABs was the only way to stay on top. AMD eventually surpassed Intel using TSMC, bet you didn't see that one coming 10 years ago.
Will we see a companies start to vertically integrate via their own chip plants? Never say never but not even Apple with their near unlimited resources is doing it. BTW TSMC has a market cap 3x of Intel.
It is very concerning from a national security standpoint that so much silicon comes out of China.
Will we see a companies start to vertically integrate via their own chip plants? Never say never but not even Apple with their near unlimited resources is doing it. BTW TSMC has a market cap 3x of Intel.
It is very concerning from a national security standpoint that so much silicon comes out of China.
#42
Lexus Fanatic
Agreed....but there are reasons for the disparity. Part of it is the much lower level of regulations there, which doesn't affect their economy as much as it does here. And, part, of course, is simply the amount of silicon available as a natural resource....you can't mine or produce what is not there.
#43
Lexus Test Driver
FABs have insane levels of tech, they are getting close to atom scale lithography. What blows my mind is a die can be made having billions of transistors with essentially zero defects. The industry went the opposite of what many predicted, wasn't long ago it was thought Intel's fabrication superiority could never be surpassed and having your own FABs was the only way to stay on top. AMD eventually surpassed Intel using TSMC, bet you didn't see that one coming 10 years ago.
Will we see a companies start to vertically integrate via their own chip plants? Never say never but not even Apple with their near unlimited resources is doing it. BTW TSMC has a market cap 3x of Intel.
It is very concerning from a national security standpoint that so much silicon comes out of China.
Will we see a companies start to vertically integrate via their own chip plants? Never say never but not even Apple with their near unlimited resources is doing it. BTW TSMC has a market cap 3x of Intel.
It is very concerning from a national security standpoint that so much silicon comes out of China.
#44
Lexus Test Driver
Agreed....but there are reasons for the disparity. Part of it is the much lower level of regulations there, which doesn't affect their economy as much as it does here. And, part, of course, is simply the amount of silicon available as a natural resource....you can't mine or produce what is not there.
#45
Lexus Champion
I know, but I don't think it will stay that way for long unfortunately.
I can remember long enough to when TSMC actually sucked they were way behind even AMD's fab. "Real men have fabs" remember that? Or maybe not that was a very long time ago. Back on topic I don't see how Tesla could justify owning their own fab, maybe in 10 years when they are the biggest company on earth.
I can remember long enough to when TSMC actually sucked they were way behind even AMD's fab. "Real men have fabs" remember that? Or maybe not that was a very long time ago. Back on topic I don't see how Tesla could justify owning their own fab, maybe in 10 years when they are the biggest company on earth.