What you are failing to acknowledge is the length of time and cost it took to implement the SpaceX program. Genius or not, you are acting like Musk can just tell his COO to start making chips, and the next week, it's done.

 

If there is anybody that can raise the capital to build a new fab, its Elon. Especially if he is serious about building his own supercomputer parts. We desperately need all sorts of manufacturing to come back to USA, otherwise we are doomed.

 

sorry mmarshall... neither of your points here are true. china is no longer a 'third world' country, it has highly complex regulations, and as far as the amount of silicon... this white stuff is very abundant...

 

It's about IP rights too and it's all owned by several key players in the industry. Companies like Intel and TSMC and Samsung own all of it. How are you going to build a fab when you have no idea how to build it? None of it is commoditized. Even if you somehow got blueprints to build it, you'd be litigated into oblivion by the big 3 above. That's why currently, even the Chinese can't replicate the technology and are years behind because these are closely held secrets.

 

I did not say that China is a Third World Country.....they certainly don't have a Third World economy or military.

And, with that, (although I'm not including you in this statement since, even if we disagree, you are still acting like an adult), I'm out of this thread as of now. I'm tired of the rudeness and arrogance that some posters have exhibited (they know who they are). I don't have time for that nonsense.

 

just happens to be what i do every single day, and i also happen to be dealing with automotive companies about chips in vehicles.

someone already established TSMC is not part of china. fabs in china are mostly crap, they produce some but they are nowhere near where TSMC or Intel are in terms of technology. it's pretty amazing to see how TSMC took over the industry over the past years and how Intel keeps falling behind. a lot of that imho are really on Intel, too much ego and they got lazy. of course still have to give credit to TSMC for their hard work and talents. this doesn't have much to do with regulations or natural resource. silicon fab is not just about money, it's an art and require tons of talents and experience.

 

Lots of information and misinformation here. A new wafer fabrication factory would take 2 to 3 years to build. Probably $3B in bricks and mortar (cleanrooms, lots of stainless to move the toxic chemicals) and $10 to $15B in semiconductor equipment to build a manufacturing line. Deposition, Etch, Metrology, etc.
Mfg lines are designed to build a certain type and level of chip, and the lifecycle of that chip can be as litte as 2 years. Yields are critical. Changeover to a new chip is many millions of dollars. And time...

Automobile chips are not the most dense (technology node) or complex. I believe the biggest car chip fab is Renesas Naka in Japan. There was a large fire in March 2021 which crippled production. They are just getting back to production now. There was also flooding which damaged fabs.

Remember, at the risk of dumbing down chip production, there are 2 major operations: fabrication and programming. Taiwan Semiconductor Company (TSMC) is the biggest fabrication company and NVIDIA is the #1 programming company.

The semiconductor chip shortage hurts everyone. Tesla has a distinct advantage in that, as a high technology company, the have their own programmers that write the software (firmware) for chip functionality. No other car manufacturer does this; they tend to rely on the giant NVIDIA.

Expect the shortage to last well into 2022.

 

this article covers why chip companies blame car makers now for stupidly never upgrading from ancient chip tech.

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/c...es-170203.html

 

meanwhile, tesla china alone will have made 300K cars in first 9 months this year!

https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...es-2021-09-26/

 

This speaks to the advantage of being a tech company. Tesla is the only car company that programs its own chips.
Perhaps the newer companies such as Polestar, Rivian and Lucid are doing the same; I don't know. And perhaps the great legacy companies will follow suit.
But make no mistake; Tesla is weathering the chip shortage better than most but is still affected by both lowered production and cost.

 

heard some say even as long as 2023-24 but I doubt that long.

 

And China's recent power outages are not helping the situation at all...

https://www.businessinsider.com/chin...y-chain-2021-9

 

https://fortune.com/2021/09/17/chip-...tor-stone-age/

Not sure if this was posted previously, but as someone in tech, pretty astounding to see automakers live on old process node chips....

 

It is explained right there in the article - "Most systems in cars are safety-critical and need to perform in practically every situation regardless of temperature, humidity, vibrations, and even minor road debris. With so much at stake, tried and true is better than new and improved. "

Engine management computers do not need a lot of processing power. They can operate on older, slower CPUs that do not need active cooling, and can reliably operate when its cold, hot, humid and dusty.

 

there are TONS of chips in a car. for a lot of functions, like Och mentioned, doesn't require a lot of processing power. Manufacturers care more about being proven and reliable (and most importantly cost). Staying with old chips make a lot of sense.

But still, for the main brains of modern cars, those units are on much more recent technology and they are improving a lot from generations to generations. with so many sensors / cameras plus all the infotainment information / screen displays, old processors can't handle