chip shortage
09-22-21, 04:48 AM
#46
Lexus Champion
Come on, guys....get real. I don't hate the man. I don't hate anybody. Yes, I think he is stubborn, eccentric, quirky, often acts in a strange manner, and I'm not sure I would want to work for him. But if he is as smart as you guys seem to think he is, and can come up with ways to help send civilians in private industry to the moon, then maybe he can come up with a more foolproof way to produce computer chips. After all, he heads a company that actually uses a fair number of them.
09-22-21, 05:06 AM
#47
What he says is absolutely true and I've worked in the silicon industry for over 15 years so yeah, I absolutely do. IC manufacturing is the most complex manufacturing process ever created and the newest fabs cost about $40B to make. Elon is a genius in many respects such as business and rockets and EVs but that doesn't make him capable of semi manufacturing as that isn't even in his field. To even suggest he can magically circumvent the integrated circuit sounds pretty naive.
09-22-21, 06:21 AM
#48
Lexus Fanatic
Thread Starter
iTrader: (20)
Agreed....but there are reasons for the disparity. Part of it is the much lower level of regulations there, which doesn't affect their economy as much as it does here. And, part, of course, is simply the amount of silicon available as a natural resource....you can't mine or produce what is not there.
09-22-21, 06:31 AM
#49
Lexus Test Driver
Originally Posted by Och
If there is anybody that can raise the capital to build a new fab, its Elon. Especially if he is serious about building his own supercomputer parts. We desperately need all sorts of manufacturing to come back to USA, otherwise we are doomed.
09-22-21, 12:06 PM
#50
Lexus Fanatic
And, with that, (although I'm not including you in this statement since, even if we disagree, you are still acting like an adult), I'm out of this thread as of now. I'm tired of the rudeness and arrogance that some posters have exhibited (they know who they are). I don't have time for that nonsense.
09-22-21, 01:15 PM
#51
just happens to be what i do every single day, and i also happen to be dealing with automotive companies about chips in vehicles.
someone already established TSMC is not part of china. fabs in china are mostly crap, they produce some but they are nowhere near where TSMC or Intel are in terms of technology. it's pretty amazing to see how TSMC took over the industry over the past years and how Intel keeps falling behind. a lot of that imho are really on Intel, too much ego and they got lazy. of course still have to give credit to TSMC for their hard work and talents. this doesn't have much to do with regulations or natural resource. silicon fab is not just about money, it's an art and require tons of talents and experience.
FABs have insane levels of tech, they are getting close to atom scale lithography. What blows my mind is a die can be made having billions of transistors with essentially zero defects. The industry went the opposite of what many predicted, wasn't long ago it was thought Intel's fabrication superiority could never be surpassed and having your own FABs was the only way to stay on top. AMD eventually surpassed Intel using TSMC, bet you didn't see that one coming 10 years ago.
Will we see a companies start to vertically integrate via their own chip plants? Never say never but not even Apple with their near unlimited resources is doing it. BTW TSMC has a market cap 3x of Intel.
It is very concerning from a national security standpoint that so much silicon comes out of China.
Will we see a companies start to vertically integrate via their own chip plants? Never say never but not even Apple with their near unlimited resources is doing it. BTW TSMC has a market cap 3x of Intel.
It is very concerning from a national security standpoint that so much silicon comes out of China.
Agreed....but there are reasons for the disparity. Part of it is the much lower level of regulations there, which doesn't affect their economy as much as it does here. And, part, of course, is simply the amount of silicon available as a natural resource....you can't mine or produce what is not there.
I know, but I don't think it will stay that way for long unfortunately.
I can remember long enough to when TSMC actually sucked they were way behind even AMD's fab. "Real men have fabs" remember that? Or maybe not that was a very long time ago. Back on topic I don't see how Tesla could justify owning their own fab, maybe in 10 years when they are the biggest company on earth.
I can remember long enough to when TSMC actually sucked they were way behind even AMD's fab. "Real men have fabs" remember that? Or maybe not that was a very long time ago. Back on topic I don't see how Tesla could justify owning their own fab, maybe in 10 years when they are the biggest company on earth.
09-22-21, 01:43 PM
#52
Lots of information and misinformation here. A new wafer fabrication factory would take 2 to 3 years to build. Probably $3B in bricks and mortar (cleanrooms, lots of stainless to move the toxic chemicals) and $10 to $15B in semiconductor equipment to build a manufacturing line. Deposition, Etch, Metrology, etc.
Mfg lines are designed to build a certain type and level of chip, and the lifecycle of that chip can be as litte as 2 years. Yields are critical. Changeover to a new chip is many millions of dollars. And time...
Automobile chips are not the most dense (technology node) or complex. I believe the biggest car chip fab is Renesas Naka in Japan. There was a large fire in March 2021 which crippled production. They are just getting back to production now. There was also flooding which damaged fabs.
Remember, at the risk of dumbing down chip production, there are 2 major operations: fabrication and programming. Taiwan Semiconductor Company (TSMC) is the biggest fabrication company and NVIDIA is the #1 programming company.
The semiconductor chip shortage hurts everyone. Tesla has a distinct advantage in that, as a high technology company, the have their own programmers that write the software (firmware) for chip functionality. No other car manufacturer does this; they tend to rely on the giant NVIDIA.
Expect the shortage to last well into 2022.
Mfg lines are designed to build a certain type and level of chip, and the lifecycle of that chip can be as litte as 2 years. Yields are critical. Changeover to a new chip is many millions of dollars. And time...
Automobile chips are not the most dense (technology node) or complex. I believe the biggest car chip fab is Renesas Naka in Japan. There was a large fire in March 2021 which crippled production. They are just getting back to production now. There was also flooding which damaged fabs.
Remember, at the risk of dumbing down chip production, there are 2 major operations: fabrication and programming. Taiwan Semiconductor Company (TSMC) is the biggest fabrication company and NVIDIA is the #1 programming company.
The semiconductor chip shortage hurts everyone. Tesla has a distinct advantage in that, as a high technology company, the have their own programmers that write the software (firmware) for chip functionality. No other car manufacturer does this; they tend to rely on the giant NVIDIA.
Expect the shortage to last well into 2022.
09-25-21, 07:03 PM
#53
Lexus Fanatic
Thread Starter
iTrader: (20)
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/c...es-170203.html
09-26-21, 08:43 AM
#54
Lexus Fanatic
Thread Starter
iTrader: (20)
meanwhile, tesla china alone will have made 300K cars in first 9 months this year!
https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...es-2021-09-26/
https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...es-2021-09-26/
09-26-21, 09:04 AM
#55
meanwhile, tesla china alone will have made 300K cars in first 9 months this year!
https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...es-2021-09-26/
https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...es-2021-09-26/
Perhaps the newer companies such as Polestar, Rivian and Lucid are doing the same; I don't know. And perhaps the great legacy companies will follow suit.
But make no mistake; Tesla is weathering the chip shortage better than most but is still affected by both lowered production and cost.
09-27-21, 02:05 PM
#56
Driver School Candidate
No...they are hurting. They aren't at peak capacity and they spoke of this during the earnings call. The chip shortage has definitely affected them and they believe it won't recover until sometime 2022. Even though they use unique chipsets, they also use standard stuff to control airbags and other functions of the car.
I do believe they aren't hurting as much as the others because their volumes are so low. I hope this supply shortage ends soon as that new tax credit is going to get me to buy a new EV
I do believe they aren't hurting as much as the others because their volumes are so low. I hope this supply shortage ends soon as that new tax credit is going to get me to buy a new EV
09-28-21, 01:15 PM
#57
And China's recent power outages are not helping the situation at all...
https://www.businessinsider.com/chin...y-chain-2021-9
https://www.businessinsider.com/chin...y-chain-2021-9
Power outages in China threaten to add another snag to an already snarled global supply chain.
The power shortage has forced several key suppliers for major companies like Apple and Tesla to suspend production. Key manufacturing and shipping hubs in China have been hit by energy-use restrictions as the Chinese government works to make President Xi Jinping's carbon neutral goals a reality. The power shortage comes at a time when coal and gas prices are surging in the country as demand for Chinese products booms.
The power shortage has forced several key suppliers for major companies like Apple and Tesla to suspend production. Key manufacturing and shipping hubs in China have been hit by energy-use restrictions as the Chinese government works to make President Xi Jinping's carbon neutral goals a reality. The power shortage comes at a time when coal and gas prices are surging in the country as demand for Chinese products booms.
09-29-21, 10:55 PM
#58
Pole Position
https://fortune.com/2021/09/17/chip-...tor-stone-age/
Not sure if this was posted previously, but as someone in tech, pretty astounding to see automakers live on old process node chips....
Not sure if this was posted previously, but as someone in tech, pretty astounding to see automakers live on old process node chips....
09-30-21, 05:27 AM
#59
It is explained right there in the article - "Most systems in cars are safety-critical and need to perform in practically every situation regardless of temperature, humidity, vibrations, and even minor road debris. With so much at stake, tried and true is better than new and improved. "
Engine management computers do not need a lot of processing power. They can operate on older, slower CPUs that do not need active cooling, and can reliably operate when its cold, hot, humid and dusty.
Engine management computers do not need a lot of processing power. They can operate on older, slower CPUs that do not need active cooling, and can reliably operate when its cold, hot, humid and dusty.
09-30-21, 07:03 PM
#60
there are TONS of chips in a car. for a lot of functions, like Och mentioned, doesn't require a lot of processing power. Manufacturers care more about being proven and reliable (and most importantly cost). Staying with old chips make a lot of sense.
But still, for the main brains of modern cars, those units are on much more recent technology and they are improving a lot from generations to generations. with so many sensors / cameras plus all the infotainment information / screen displays, old processors can't handle
But still, for the main brains of modern cars, those units are on much more recent technology and they are improving a lot from generations to generations. with so many sensors / cameras plus all the infotainment information / screen displays, old processors can't handle