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I won't formally take sides in the ICE-efficiency debate....IMO both you and Steve have some valid points. But I will point out that from the sources I've seen, most of today's ICE engines are around 40% efficient in terms of the amount of fuel burned, with the best maybe at 50%. So, yes, there may be room for improvement, but at what cost?..and would it be cost-effective?
No, I believe its around 25% energy efficiency for most ICE, with around 40% for the most efficient ones. There is room for very marginal improvement, maybe another 5%, and the cost of incredible complexity and loss of practicality, but certainly nothing drastic.
The technology of the BEV is not in its infancy, thats nonsense, BEVs are just about as old ICEVs. And the efficiency of EVs is not static, it depends on where and how the electricity is being generated and delivered, and there is credible evidence that all things considered BEVs are not anymore efficient and cause more harm to the environment.
Disagree. In the next couple years, you're going to see the manufacturing costs come way down due to process improvements and design decisions that will significantly impact BEV improvements. Things like structural battery chassis will save noticeable weight along with far better cooling mechanisms will enable significantly better performance in heat / cold mgmt and thermal efficiency. The 4680 cell has already been validated with the performance targets and they are ironing out the manufacturing bugs. Tesla hasn't even gone 800V yet and their new Model S design uses a better BMS system to mitigate any performance loss during increased battery output and recharge. Have you forgotten about the carbon sleeve rotors that enable much higher rpms with very limited back EMF that enables the Plaid to keep the 1020hp throughout the rpm range...this wasn't possible a short while ago. I see all these innovations that occurred in the last couple years and you say its tapped out...lets revisit this in 5 years and see where we are.
No amount of money will make the gas engine come anywhere near the efficiency of a BEV. Toyota got over 40% with battery assist there is not much else that can be done at best there is a few more % to squeeze out.
Well of course not, but they can be made to be more efficient than they are now.
Originally Posted by mmarshall
That was exactly the attitude that prevailed in the 60s and early 70s before the OPEC price/supply disasters hit in late 1973. I know....I lived through it.
And you know what? Everything worked out fine.
Originally Posted by Och
You said "dramatic improvement" of ICE efficiency, and that's just not possible. Manufacturers have already made engineering choices to get ICEs to the current stage of efficiency at the expense of reliability and any further possible improvements would to be marginal and impractical from the point of cost, reliability and serviceability. Adding EV tech is not making ICE itself anymore efficient.
Much the same goes for the EV tech, electric motors and battery tech that are available now have pretty much peaked out in terms of efficiency and capacity, and without some breakthrough new tech, there is not much room for improvement.
So we've already advanced as far as is possible for us to advance? We'll have to agree to disagree. People have thought that all throughout history and they have been wrong, as you are. Of course there will be many breakthroughs in new tech.
So we've already advanced as far as is possible for us to advance? We'll have to agree to disagree. People have thought that all throughout history and they have been wrong, as you are. Of course there will be many breakthroughs in new tech.
We have advances as far as possible on some of the currently available techs. Of course there are going to be breakthrough new technologies, perhaps a whole new source of energy, computer chips not in silicon, etc. I simply stated there is not much room to further improve ICE and electric motors in terms of efficiency, but more importantly the current battery tech has reached practical limits.
Disagree. In the next couple years, you're going to see the manufacturing costs come way down due to process improvements and design decisions that will significantly impact BEV improvements. Things like structural battery chassis will save noticeable weight along with far better cooling mechanisms will enable significantly better performance in heat / cold mgmt and thermal efficiency. The 4680 cell has already been validated with the performance targets and they are ironing out the manufacturing bugs. Tesla hasn't even gone 800V yet and their new Model S design uses a better BMS system to mitigate any performance loss during increased battery output and recharge. Have you forgotten about the carbon sleeve rotors that enable much higher rpms with very limited back EMF that enables the Plaid to keep the 1020hp throughout the rpm range...this wasn't possible a short while ago. I see all these innovations that occurred in the last couple years and you say its tapped out...lets revisit this in 5 years and see where we are.
When it comes to the 4680 cell battery, I'll believe it when I see it. And even then, it's not exactly breakthrough, with only 15-20% improvement over current tech it's a marginal stop gap measure until (and if) we get solid state batteries.
Everything else you've described are costly measures that result in marginal improvements. Look at some new EVs that are out from MB, Porsche, Audi - they can't even match Teslas range from 5-6 years ago, and then cheaper EVs such as the new Mini have a range that barely practical. The tech hasn't quite topped out, but it's very mature and in desperate need of a major break through.
......after we has THIS for much of 1973-74 and again in 1979. It was even worse, in some ways, in 1979......there were more vehicles on the road, vehicle sizes had shrunk, and that meant more cars fitting ito every square foot of space.
I was actually unemployed for a good part of 1974, before I got my Federal career.....it was so hard to get gas (many stations opened up, pumped 1000 gallons or so, and shut down for another delivery) that it was difficult to get around for job-interviews.....you couldn't do things, back then on the Internet.
......after we has THIS for much of 1973-74 and again in 1979. It was even worse, in some ways, in 1979......there were more vehicles on the road, vehicle sizes had shrunk, and that meant more cars fitting ito every square foot of space..
But...everything worked out fine. All challenges are temporary and it all works out in the end.
fuel cell is a glorified battery, you use a large amount of energy to in the end create an electric current to run an electric motor. The exact same thing a battery does. Skip the middle man BS and energy intensive process of trying to get elemental hydrogen and just use the electricity to charge a battery instead. Ranges are similar, hydrogen can refuel faster but if you thought EV infrastructure was bad, look at hydrogen infrastructure. At least you can recharge an EV at home, unlike hydrogen
The next level of complexity which will be coming to BEV soon is the 2 Speed axle transmission, which is simple compared to the modern 6, 8, or 10 speed or DCT transmissions. These should make EV's more efficient at high speed cruising
wow, lots of complacent assumptions and doomsaying... just because we are where we are today, the future is never a straight line extrapolation so no guarantee that in a decade or so ICE is done, BEV is everything. and govt wishing that were so doesn't make it so.
Originally Posted by Motorola
Those still clamoring for hybrids also seem to believe that 6 and 8 cylinders will somehow still be kept alive in hybrid form, when in truth only 4 cylinder turbo hybrids have any feasibility of making it into the future. And I would much rather take an EV over a 4 cylinder.
i pretty much agree with that. i think hybrid tech will actually still evolve and improve in the next few years, because you don't need to change the ICE part significantly or at all, it's basically down to the power split, electric motors, batteries, and software. i believe a LOT can still be done there. it may turn out to be for nought in the long run but may prove to be a lower emission stepping stone to majority emission free cars.
Originally Posted by LexsCTJill
Hydrogen internal combustion engines are already developed for large trucks, the engines are ready.
so when do you think they will see actual use?
While I think Hyundai gas cars are total trash..
ah, finally what we've all known you thought for years.
Originally Posted by SW17LS
Exactly, BEV is a train at this point, it’s a foregone conclusion. Makes no sense to be the small nice tech biting at the heels and makes way more sense to get with the program.
so let's suppose in 2021 that 10% global sales were EVs (i haven't looked it up so i don't know). that's still NINETY percent ICE. we are a LONG way from an inflection point where 50+% of global sales are EVs. could it happen in 5 years? i highly doubt it. could it happen in 10, possibly, but a lot can happen in 10 years (including wars, maybe over lithium ) so none of has any idea and again, straight line extrapolation is usually wrong.
Originally Posted by AMIRZA786
But, when battery tech improves, it will make hydrogen obsolete
and when i can get a Mr Fusion for my car, everything will be obsolete.
Originally Posted by AMIRZA786
I briefly switched to a 4 cylinder turbo and came back a year later. I've driven the Honda Accord 2.0t Sport, and although it drives nice, has more power and is faster than it's 3.5L V6 it replaced, I would take take the 8th or 9th Gen Accord V6 over it any day.
you seem conflicted between EVs and enjoying a V6
right now i have a 2.5T 4 and a 5.0 V8. left brain, right brain.
Originally Posted by Och
Correct, solid state batteries would be considered a major break through in battery tech, although it still doesn't solve the issue of charging. Ironically, Toyota is heavily invested in the development of solid state batteries, yet certain Tesla fluffers on this board constantly badmouth Toyota for trying, saying they will never succeed, and only Tesla is doing it right by building battery packs stuffed with thousands of laptop batteries. Ditto with hydrogen, many correctly dismiss it (for now) due to pragmatic reasons, but others dismiss it simply because it goes against their Tesla religion.
Lets just be objective, EV or ICE tech are nothing new, and even hydrogen ICE is not much different from petrol ICE. Hydrogen fuel cell tech is something drastically different, but at the same time its a convoluted clusterpluck. All these technologies ultimately rely on burning fossils, directly or indirectly. We don't live in a free market world, and the government agenda greatly affects which way the market sways and there are entire industries, such as solar, that would not exist without government subsidies. If the government decides to prop hydrogen in the future, most of those who are dismissing it now will quickly jump on the bandwagon.
That being said, I see a small potential for hydrogen in Germany, out of all places. Their government has gone completely off the rails, they are closing up all the nuclear and coal electric plants in the name of "saving the planet", while consumer electricity costs are absolutely skyrocketing. It seems that in the future they will have two choices - buy electricity from neighboring countries that have not yet reached the same level of hysteria, or buy hydrogen from Russia, where they can extract it in abundance by burning excessive amounts of natural gas, and pretend that its "green".
excellent post! the hubris and hypocrisy all around the world are in excess.
Originally Posted by EZZ
I don't think gas will ever be banned.
not for 50 years at least i'd guess.
Originally Posted by SW17LS
As an example, we couldn't fathom what the addition of hybrid tech would do for vehicle efficiency. We never thought we would see 450 hp 4 cyls that got 30 MPG. Of course the possibilities are not limitless...but to say they can't be further improved is silly.
It would require extensive hybridization and addition of EV tech, but you could make ICE engines more efficient sure, it just gets to a point where it doesnt make sense to keep doing so vs just moving to EV.
well it will make sense for a while at least, for consumers who can't own an EV (can't charge, drive long distances, can't afford!!).
Originally Posted by LeX2K
Are you for real? Petrol engine can't get much more thermal efficiency it's not going to happen no matter how the fuel is injected into the engine.
possibly, but hybrids can still improve i think. especially plug in hybrids, if they provide more ev range, then they offer the best of both worlds. the new NX450h+ apparently has a range of 550 mi! only 18 on battery only, but for errands that's fine for a lot of people who will then charge at home and rarely add gas.
where i think the inflection point comes is if pure EVs come down in price, but we're a long way from that. but in 5-10 years BEVs could well cost less than PHEVs for example, and with other cost savings or little to no maintenance, it's a win. but telling someone who makes $30K a year "hey, just buy this $50K EV and you'll 'save money' " doesn't help.
12-30-21, 06:51 PM
) so none of has any idea and again, straight line extrapolation is usually wrong.