Hyundai moving away from hydrogen
12-31-21, 10:28 AM
#76
Lexus Fanatic
so let's suppose in 2021 that 10% global sales were EVs (i haven't looked it up so i don't know). that's still NINETY percent ICE. we are a LONG way from an inflection point where 50+% of global sales are EVs. could it happen in 5 years? i highly doubt it. could it happen in 10, possibly, but a lot can happen in 10 years (including wars, maybe over lithium 
) so none of has any idea and again, straight line extrapolation is usually wrong.
) so none of has any idea and again, straight line extrapolation is usually wrong.Remember nearly every major automaker has said they will develop nothing but and sell nothing but EVs by a specific date. So...thats clearly going to mean that a large majority of new vehicle sales will be EV...since thats all that will be for sale.
12-31-21, 10:29 AM
#77
Hydrogen fuel cell is most certainly too complex to be practical. I am more interested in hydrogen ICEs, they are not much different from regular ICEs, but I wonder about their reliability. I don't know the temperature of hydrogen combustion or its lubricating properties and how they affect the engine.
12-31-21, 10:50 AM
#78
Lexus Champion
wow, lots of complacent assumptions and doomsaying... just because we are where we are today, the future is never a straight line extrapolation so no guarantee that in a decade or so ICE is done, BEV is everything. and govt wishing that were so doesn't make it so.
and when i can get a Mr Fusion for my car, everything will be obsolete.
you seem conflicted between EVs and enjoying a V6
right now i have a 2.5T 4 and a 5.0 V8. left brain, right brain.
where i think the inflection point comes is if pure EVs come down in price, but we're a long way from that. but in 5-10 years BEVs could well cost less than PHEVs for example, and with other cost savings or little to no maintenance, it's a win. but telling someone who makes $30K a year "hey, just buy this $50K EV and you'll 'save money' " doesn't help.
and when i can get a Mr Fusion for my car, everything will be obsolete.
you seem conflicted between EVs and enjoying a V6
right now i have a 2.5T 4 and a 5.0 V8. left brain, right brain.
where i think the inflection point comes is if pure EVs come down in price, but we're a long way from that. but in 5-10 years BEVs could well cost less than PHEVs for example, and with other cost savings or little to no maintenance, it's a win. but telling someone who makes $30K a year "hey, just buy this $50K EV and you'll 'save money' " doesn't help.
I've driven several variations of the 2.0 and 2.5L na and turbos versions, and although some of them generate more power than many V6's and V8's, if I stay with ICE, it will only be V6 or V8. I would rather spend the money on gas. With EV, I don't have to compromise, that's why I keep saying "V6, V8, EV or nothing"
12-31-21, 02:48 PM
#79
Lexus Fanatic
iTrader: (20)
#holyoversimplification #detailsmatterabout the 70s gas crisis, it DID impact a LOT of people's lives. did the country survive? sure, but that doesn't mean there weren't painful impacts, just like the pandemic now.
On the first point, hell yeah! Can't wait for those fusion drives! On the other point, just because I'm moving towards EV's doesn't make me conflicted. I love V6's and V8's, they are fun to drive, I love the way they sound and feel. My move towards EV's is more practical. I live in an area where there is plenty of charging infrastructure and I can charge at home and work. The monthly cost of driving my IS350 11 miles a day to work, not including maintenance is around $200. The cost of driving an EV ranges from free to $30 a month at the most. As far as keeping my IS350 and an EV, it's a possibility, but then I have to park it in my backyard and keep a cover on it and find a way to keep the mice out of the engine (my wife has already turned the garage into "her" place so that's not an option). My nieces husband just offered me $19K for it, that would pay more than 2 years of my PoleStar lease, so as much as I love that car, at least it will go to someone I know will take care of it.
I've driven several variations of the 2.0 and 2.5L na and turbos versions, and although some of them generate more power than many V6's and V8's, if I stay with ICE, it will only be V6 or V8. I would rather spend the money on gas. With EV, I don't have to compromise, that's why I keep saying "V6, V8, EV or nothing"
I've driven several variations of the 2.0 and 2.5L na and turbos versions, and although some of them generate more power than many V6's and V8's, if I stay with ICE, it will only be V6 or V8. I would rather spend the money on gas. With EV, I don't have to compromise, that's why I keep saying "V6, V8, EV or nothing"
i understand the garage issue! i'm lucky to have a 3 car garage used only for cars. before i got the suv though we were a 2 car household and the third spot was used for a crappy old golf cart i use for cleaning up my place and getting around (several acres). so recently i got an 8x16' shed and put the golf cart in there. so now i have the suv and the coupe. but two cars for you is not an option is seems, so you have to choose. when my suv lease is up (feb 24) i'll most likely replace with an ev (ioniq 5 / ev6 / gv60 look like great options so far but a lot will happen in 2 more years).i took the LC out today and it's really a joy to drive (and i own it, not leased) so likely a keeper.
12-31-21, 02:55 PM
#80
Lexus Fanatic
iTrader: (20)
To argue that BEVs are somehow not going to take over would mean you have to believe that every carmaker who has completely shut down their ICE development and has made commitments to be 100% EV by a date ~ 2030-2035 are somehow going to reverse course. Thats just not going to happen...the industry at this point is all in on EV tech...there isn't any turning back.
Remember nearly every major automaker has said they will develop nothing but and sell nothing but EVs by a specific date. So...thats clearly going to mean that a large majority of new vehicle sales will be EV...since thats all that will be for sale.
Remember nearly every major automaker has said they will develop nothing but and sell nothing but EVs by a specific date. So...thats clearly going to mean that a large majority of new vehicle sales will be EV...since thats all that will be for sale.
12-31-21, 03:00 PM
#81
Lexus Test Driver
Originally Posted by bitkahuna
stopping development is different than stopping selling. i don't see any car company stopping sales of ICE/hybrid/PHEV vehicles even if they've stopped 'development' because i don't see demand dropping off like a rock, unless govt continues to distorts with incentives/subsidies and punishments (for ICE, gas taxes, etc).
12-31-21, 03:05 PM
#82
Lexus Champion
all life is temporary and we'll all be dead in the end. #holyoversimplification #detailsmatter
about the 70s gas crisis, it DID impact a LOT of people's lives. did the country survive? sure, but that doesn't mean there weren't painful impacts, just like the pandemic now.
good post. i understand the garage issue! i'm lucky to have a 3 car garage used only for cars. before i got the suv though we were a 2 car household and the third spot was used for a crappy old golf cart i use for cleaning up my place and getting around (several acres). so recently i got an 8x16' shed and put the golf cart in there. so now i have the suv and the coupe. but two cars for you is not an option is seems, so you have to choose. when my suv lease is up (feb 24) i'll most likely replace with an ev (ioniq 5 / ev6 / gv60 look like great options so far but a lot will happen in 2 more years).
i took the LC out today and it's really a joy to drive (and i own it, not leased) so likely a keeper.
#holyoversimplification #detailsmatterabout the 70s gas crisis, it DID impact a LOT of people's lives. did the country survive? sure, but that doesn't mean there weren't painful impacts, just like the pandemic now.
good post.
i understand the garage issue! i'm lucky to have a 3 car garage used only for cars. before i got the suv though we were a 2 car household and the third spot was used for a crappy old golf cart i use for cleaning up my place and getting around (several acres). so recently i got an 8x16' shed and put the golf cart in there. so now i have the suv and the coupe. but two cars for you is not an option is seems, so you have to choose. when my suv lease is up (feb 24) i'll most likely replace with an ev (ioniq 5 / ev6 / gv60 look like great options so far but a lot will happen in 2 more years).i took the LC out today and it's really a joy to drive (and i own it, not leased) so likely a keeper.
12-31-21, 03:08 PM
#83
I see it another way. Most of the development was about squeezing every last mpg out of the engines to meet the strict requirements of the different governments. Since they will be selling way more EVs, they won't have to do that so they don't need to develop efficiency in their ICE to the nth degree. They may even have more freedom to offer the V8s because their overall fleet efficiency numbers will be way up given EVs have insane MPGe.
12-31-21, 03:18 PM
#84
Lexus Champion
Unlikely, but we can only dream for this to come true, especially if they can not only offset the economy requirements, but also emissions requirements, and build non neutered V8s. However, even if they do do that, the cars they put these glorious engines are still bound to be molested by all the tech that takes away from the emotional experience.
12-31-21, 05:01 PM
#85
Lexus Fanatic
all life is temporary and we'll all be dead in the end. #holyoversimplification #detailsmatter
about the 70s gas crisis, it DID impact a LOT of people's lives. did the country survive? sure, but that doesn't mean there weren't painful impacts, just like the pandemic now.
#holyoversimplification #detailsmatterabout the 70s gas crisis, it DID impact a LOT of people's lives. did the country survive? sure, but that doesn't mean there weren't painful impacts, just like the pandemic now.
stopping development is different than stopping selling. i don't see any car company stopping sales of ICE/hybrid/PHEV vehicles even if they've stopped 'development' because i don't see demand dropping off like a rock, unless govt continues to distorts with incentives/subsidies and punishments (for ICE, gas taxes, etc).
You yourself said "the S Class will be around 5 years and be gone", well which is it?!
12-31-21, 05:31 PM
#86
Lexus Champion
There are always painful aspects of these kinds of things. We're talking about the transition to EVs though, hardly the same thing...there won't be any pain. The market will move to EVs in time as they become attractive to them and their options otherwise become more limited. Him comparing this to the gas crisis and saying that we may not "be fine" is just absurd. You yourself said that nothing excites you except EVs...
So you're saying they're going to keep selling the same old ICE models alongside brand new EV models? I find that hard ti believe. Most carmakers have said they will only sell EVs within the next 10-15 years.
You yourself said "the S Class will be around 5 years and be gone", well which is it?!
So you're saying they're going to keep selling the same old ICE models alongside brand new EV models? I find that hard ti believe. Most carmakers have said they will only sell EVs within the next 10-15 years.
You yourself said "the S Class will be around 5 years and be gone", well which is it?!
12-31-21, 06:34 PM
#88
Lexus Fanatic
iTrader: (20)
Him comparing this to the gas crisis and saying that we may not "be fine" is just absurd. You yourself said that nothing excites you except EVs...
So you're saying they're going to keep selling the same old ICE models alongside brand new EV models? I find that hard ti believe. Most carmakers have said they will only sell EVs within the next 10-15 years.
about car makers still selling the 'same old ICE models' maybe engines, but that doesn't mean they can't evolve in infotainment and safety alongside the EVs for example.
You yourself said "the S Class will be around 5 years and be gone", well which is it?!
01-01-22, 06:36 AM
#90
this feels like political debate... There is big change incoming thanks to legislation, I can see Lexus sales being 90% BEV in 2030, easily.
Lexus sells well in USA, China, Western Europe, Japan and some richer southeast asian countries. These markets can get a lot of BEV traction by 2030 for luxury vehicles, yes even 90%. It requires legislation like Western Europe.
However worldwide, no, not all cars will go BEV by 2030 or even 2040. Simply because a lot of car sales are in market where there are no chargers at all and goverments are not planning to do anything about it, today. Markets like South America, Africa, Arab countries, huge parts of Asia, India, are not even planning public infrastructure or benefits for owning a BEV, so nothing will happen there by 2030. These are markets where Toyota sells 50% of their vehicles, while Lexus sells only 5%.
Lexus sells well in USA, China, Western Europe, Japan and some richer southeast asian countries. These markets can get a lot of BEV traction by 2030 for luxury vehicles, yes even 90%. It requires legislation like Western Europe.
However worldwide, no, not all cars will go BEV by 2030 or even 2040. Simply because a lot of car sales are in market where there are no chargers at all and goverments are not planning to do anything about it, today. Markets like South America, Africa, Arab countries, huge parts of Asia, India, are not even planning public infrastructure or benefits for owning a BEV, so nothing will happen there by 2030. These are markets where Toyota sells 50% of their vehicles, while Lexus sells only 5%.