epa estimates ev's will account for 8% of new vehicle sales by 2026.

u.s. govt (admin/pres) want 50% of new vehicles sold to be either BEV or PHEV *by 2023*. (i think that should be 2030, per this: https://www.greencarcongress.com/202...806-biden.html)

so i guess that means 42% of new vehicles will be PHEV? (50 - 8)

sounds delusional to me, but hey what do i know.

of course there's some carve out loop holes for trucks, big vans, suvs, etc.

the video has all the dirt.

 

That's not realistic at all in fact it's flat out ridiculous. We don't need ANY regulations to push electric and plug in electrics people can't get enough of them.

 

From other articles I have seen it was stated 50% of EV and plug-in Hybrid by 2030

 

Wow 8%.that is not a lot. Electric vehicles will continue to be very expensive to buy. .

Toyota will at some point become the #1 plug-in hybrid sales leader.

Completely delusional

Out course....battery electrics are not the solution to every single segment

 

Like it or not, the system cannot go totally BEV at any time in the foreseeable future. Plug-in hybrids, with a small gas engine for recharging, need to be an option. Face it, many people simply don't have (and won't have, and won't be able to have) recharging outlets. Over and above that, the influx of recharging will severely tax the electrical grid....perhaps leading to brownouts and blackouts. We keep hearing promises of "Don't worry.......everything will work out, and it will be fine". Talk is cheap (and I'll admit I've done enough of it LOL) .....but talk won't produce all of the KWH in electricity that those vehicles are going to need.

I'm sorry if this outlook doesn't agree with your EV/Tesla investments, but we have to look at the real world....not pie-in-the-sky forecasts. BEVs are not going to run on Genie-bottles, where you just close your eyes, rub the bottle, and the vehicle's charge-meter automatically jumps to 100%.

 

If they want 50% by 2030, that means they will have to incentive it differently.

Germany will achieve 30% in 2021 because of govt investments into making it happen.

I can see western Europe easily going 50% by 2025 as a whole.

 

"talk is cheaper when the story is good...and the tales grow taller on down the line". REO Speedwagon

Would you ever purchase/lease a battery electric yourself MM?

 

I mentioned that in another thread. Not under the present circumstances or anytime soon.....simply too difficult in my case for a plug-in-recharging....although, if I had a Chevy Bolt, I might be able to do it at my local GM dealership. I would not rule it out, however, if good reliable chargers were available my condo. In the meantime, the alternative is to move and get another house, which would be difficult for me. You have to remember...I am no Spring Chicken, although generally in good health for my age, my back and legs are not the strongest. If GM does a version of the Encore GX (which I love) as a plug-in hybrid with a gas engine, though, my checkbook may be ready in a couple of years.....I will go into that a little more with the 12-month review-update on my own Encore GX coming up in a few days.

 

I lose track sometimes and can't read everyone's opinion all the time.

Move to a new place just so you can buy a EV? A hybrid makes more sense if you don't want to pay for gas

I am not a youngster anymore either. ​​​​​​​

 

"investments" is a euphemism for confiscation. it means spending people's money. as i've said, like you're saying, aggressive govt goals will only be achieved by massive distortion of markets by incentives and penalties.

so that's still only 50% of new vehicle sales, which still means probably 90% of the vehicles on the road are ICE and most of those diesel!

 

With apologies for bringing actual facts into the equation:

• there is no 2023 goal for half of the auto sales to be electric vehicles
• there is a goal to try to incentivize a 50% EV share by 2030
• there is a goal to start to further reduce emissions which starts in 2023
• the 50% sales target is non-binding
• It appears to have support from the industry which wants to move that way anyway and would benefit from federal dollars to help them do so

 

it would be one of the fastest changes in the history of our civilization, one creating completely new industries and opportunities, but I guess you can say "only".
In 2020, I will guess overall bev+phev sales were less than 2% in western europe, for this to go to 50% in only 5 years means all new product and infrastructure was built for it, a massive undertaking.

And yes, goverments have been incentivizing industry forever. Any new factory in USA was built with 35% of goverment money, talking about ICE of course.
Europe and USA incentivizing locally produced energy vs importation of middle east or russian oil is a big step forward in both political and economy sense.

And it can easily happen, it will for sure happen in Western Europe as we can already see markets in Europe accelerating growth of sales of plugins rapidly.
With Tesla, Mercedes, BMW, VW, Stellantis and even Toyota offering more EVs and in more quantities in 2022, I can see this only growing forward. And guess, due to EU planning and investment in charging network, it all works.

Why is Germany doing it? By pushing german manufacturers into change in local markets, where majority of sales and profits are, they ensure their competitiveness worldwide. So in 2022, again - Mercedes, BMW and VW will have over 50 BEV+PHEV models on sale globally, while Japanese will have 5. Who is going to be more competitive in new world, EU manufacturers or Japanese? I think EU did well to increase competitevness, while Japanese and Korean goverments issued PR releases.

US started well, but change of politics hurt them. If not for incentives, Telsa would never exist. And as such, Lucid or Rivian would not either. You really think US industry is worse with Tesla, Rivian and Lucid? Unlike GM and Ford, finally there is innovativness and globally competing product from US manufacturers.

 

thanks, i see that now, so maybe the video had that wrong. https://www.greencarcongress.com/202...806-biden.html

thread title edited.

 

BEV, FCEV and PLUG-in hybrid.

 

filed under #sorrynotsorry

yup, fixed thread title and post, thanks.

seems more than a goal... the video says epa requires cafe to go to 40mpg by 2026 for example. and then more stringent in '27.

indeed... i just don't see it happening that fast.

must be why germany allowed russia to build a gigantic natural gas pipeline into GERMANY recently.

but don't misunderstand me, i'm glad to see german brands aggressively going after ev's. i foresee MASSIVE labor unrest there though, as the giants soon just don't need so many workers building vehicles - it's already becoming a tension point in VW.

agreed.

generally i don't think the govt should be shelling out billions to distort markets and yes, i know this has happened with fossil fuels, and ICE vehicles. i'm just a 'limited govt' guy. it's true there are national imperatives where govt can help (obviously national defense of course), and oil exploration for example, is enormously risky and expensive, so govt loans/subsidies there, in order for the u.s. for example to lessen its dependence on the middle east, makes sense to me, even though we've now abandoned all that.