Jwconeil

Gas prices will only collapse when it isn’t bought at all. This is because as demand goes down, so will production, and gas will lose its economy of scale. When you make a limited amount of something, it’s costs more to make it per unit, and you need more profit per unit. The less gas the economy needs, the less will be made. The cost of fuel will at best stay the same over a long period of time. It will likely increase. It’s basic economics. Fuel is a worldwide economy of scale. If you kill the mass scale, the price per unit will go up.

Im pro EV, but this is my issue. I have a low mileage 08 and low mileage 13 Lexus. Both are in top shape and could be mistaken for a few years old. As long as fuel and basic maintenance parts are available, my cars will run. For someone like me, EVs make sense from a practicality point of view, but never economically. I can buy used, low
mileage, well cared for 10-12 year old Lexus vehicles and still drive them another 15 years.

A 10-12 year old EV or hybrid isn’t a good deal even with low mileage. It’ll need a battery soon.

Replacing something for a couple grand, I won’t be super mad… but we’re talking about a 10-25k replacement cost here.

xjokerz

If everyone adopts the mindset of charging at night, that won't be good for the electrical grid either. Major improvements and massive spending is going to be needed. By massive we're talking trillions.

LeX2K

You neglected the most critical component, companies and in some cases by extension governments that are reliant on oil revenue. They will keep producing and milking their cash cow for as long as possible even when demand and price is bottoming out. If they keep trying to charge high prices it will push people to cars that don't use petrol even faster.

We'll revisit this at some point see what prediction was correct.

EZZ

Some food for thought.

SW17LS

Thats the point, you will be able to replace these batteries for a couple grand as technology improves and costs come down and an industry selling replacement batteries starts to emerge.

You can replace Prius batteries now for $1,000 or so

JeffKeryk

This is incorrect. Oil company profits are very high; producers could charge less and still make profit.
I suggest you consider "Price Elasticity", which speaks to consumption with respect to price.
Price elasticity of demand is a measurement of the change in the consumption of a product in relation to a change in its price.
Gasoline is highly inelastic, that is we will continue to buy it (consumption), generally because we need it and there are few viable alternatives, even if the price rises.