Car Chat General discussion about Lexus, other auto manufacturers and automotive news.

Breaking: California to Ban New Gas-Powered Vehicle Sales Starting in 2035

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 08-26-22 | 09:24 AM
  #76  
SailorTPD's Avatar
SailorTPD
Intermediate
 
Joined: Sep 2021
Posts: 309
Likes: 73
From: CA
Default

I know I am cynical (paranoid), but I wonder about the political agenda behind the ICE ban. Yah, it is dressed up as a benefit for air quality, but what will change in 50 years if the ban is successful. Poor people will eventually not be able to move other than by public transit since ICE vehicles will eventually phase out and be non repairable. Gas stations will disappear (happening already, several N. CA cities won't allow any more to be built). Voting with your feet will become more difficult which will likely stabilize voting districts....Just prior to pandemic, I drove to St. Louis to buy a boat and bring it back to N. CA. 500 mile days, needed big engine for towing...won't be able to do that 50 years from now.

Last edited by SailorTPD; 08-26-22 at 09:28 AM.
Old 08-26-22 | 09:32 AM
  #77  
LeX2K's Avatar
LeX2K
Lexus Fanatic
 
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 21,064
Likes: 3,170
From: Alberta
Default

You don't think battery technology will be improved in 50 years?
Old 08-26-22 | 09:43 AM
  #78  
JeffKeryk's Avatar
JeffKeryk
Racer
 
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,975
Likes: 566
From: CA
Default

People can buy a used ICE, or go outta state for new, I imagine. Plus there will be a ton of used EVs in CA.
EVs are expensive today, but there will be many more choices including a $25K (or whatever) EV.
FYI, you can order a RWD Model Y in Europe now for about $20K cheaper than the AWD. Game changer!
This is a win for Tesla, as they are the big guy, have the charging network which is continuing to grow.

My question is, the aging CA energy infrastructure. Lots to do.
In the Bay Area and SIlicon Valley, condo complexes are facing demand for charging capabilities. Apartments have to be next.
The move to EVs opens up tons of opportunities. Home owners are adding 50A lines to their garages today; many require a new service panel.
In 10 years many people will have 2 EVs; 15 years many more people certainly will. This will require even more electric upgrades.

All I can say is, after owning our Model 3 Mid Range, warts and all, I do not see myself ever buying another new ICE vehicle.


Old 08-26-22 | 09:58 AM
  #79  
AMIRZA786's Avatar
AMIRZA786
Lexus Champion
 
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 14,746
Likes: 2,353
From: California
Default

Originally Posted by SailorTPD
I know I am cynical (paranoid), but I wonder about the political agenda behind the ICE ban. Yah, it is dressed up as a benefit for air quality, but what will change in 50 years if the ban is successful. Poor people will eventually not be able to move other than by public transit since ICE vehicles will eventually phase out and be non repairable. Gas stations will disappear (happening already, several N. CA cities won't allow any more to be built). Voting with your feet will become more difficult which will likely stabilize voting districts....Just prior to pandemic, I drove to St. Louis to buy a boat and bring it back to N. CA. 500 mile days, needed big engine for towing...won't be able to do that 50 years from now.
I really don't like to use the word "poor", but those lower on the income pole will do what they do now, buy used cars. in 20 years the market will have lots of used EV's, and really the most expensive part (among it's limited amount of parts) is the battery pack, which with current technology lasts about 16 years. By then battery packs will be cheaper. Prius battery and other hybrid battery packs were $10K 15 years ago, a couple of years back my friend bought a used Prius and changed the battery pack for under $1000. I was just looking at Nissan Leaf battery pack replacements, and they are under $2K with full warranty.

Anyway I know this is all going to go on deaf ears for most, but I thought it would be worth a shot
Old 08-26-22 | 10:03 AM
  #80  
patgilm's Avatar
patgilm
Lead Lap
 
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 4,194
Likes: 304
From: Maryland
Default

Cali will have to upgrade the grid so the utility companies are going to have to have some pretty big service fees in the future if this is going to work. I’d imaging besides the highest income taxes Cali will probably have highest service charges to recoup the capital outlay the utility companies will have to pay to upgrade the grid. It will be interesting for sure.
Old 08-26-22 | 10:06 AM
  #81  
patgilm's Avatar
patgilm
Lead Lap
 
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 4,194
Likes: 304
From: Maryland
Default

Originally Posted by AMIRZA786
I really don't like to use the word "poor", but those lower on the income pole will do what they do now, buy used cars. in 20 years the market will have lots of used EV's, and really the most expensive part (among it's limited amount of parts) is the battery pack, which with current technology lasts about 16 years. By then battery packs will be cheaper. Prius battery and other hybrid battery packs were $10K 15 years ago, a couple of years back my friend bought a used Prius and changed the battery pack for under $1000. I was just looking at Nissan Leaf battery pack replacements, and they are under $2K with full warranty.

Anyway I know this is all going to go on deaf ears for most, but I thought it would be worth a shot
Someone on the Model S forum bought a used one and the battery went out. Tesla wants $20k and a third party wants about $16k but you have to ship your car to him. That’s a tough nut to crack for anyone. Not sure how I feel about buying used.
Old 08-26-22 | 10:06 AM
  #82  
RNM GS3's Avatar
RNM GS3
Lexus Test Driver
 
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 7,331
Likes: 73
From: New York
Default

Originally Posted by AMIRZA786
​​​​​ California's economy has only grown since the 1960's, exploded in 70's when the technology sector emerged, and continues to grow. Like all economies it will have it's up's and downs. We also are the top contributors in terms of federal tax dollars, and we are the biggest car market (40 million cars), so that gives us certain market advantages, and it most definitely gives us the right to shape car policy
The car policy is hypocritical.
Currently EVs cause much more environmental damage to produce than ICE due to mining needed for battery materials. It takes 50-60k miles for EVs to break even with ICE cars. But this doesn’t take into account all ICE cars that are lightly driven. For example, my M3 is almost 5yrs old but only has 8k miles. Most ppl that own exotics or V8 Mustangs even used them strictly for weekends.

The regular daily drivers that ppl buy NEW today like Camry, RAV4, Civic are really clean running cars that cause little to no pollution and are extremely fuel efficient.

The damage to the earth and environment will be immense due to mining for these batteries. Sure CA will not care because mining will be done in China or some other far away land. But damage to climate will still exist.
Old 08-26-22 | 10:09 AM
  #83  
AMIRZA786's Avatar
AMIRZA786
Lexus Champion
 
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 14,746
Likes: 2,353
From: California
Default

Originally Posted by patgilm
Someone on the Model S forum bought a used one and the battery went out. Tesla wants $20k and a third party wants about $16k but you have to ship your car to him. That’s a tough nut to crack for anyone. Not sure how I feel about buying used.
Poor people aren't likely going to be buying Teslas new or used, at least in the immediate future

Last edited by AMIRZA786; 08-26-22 at 10:17 AM.
Old 08-26-22 | 10:11 AM
  #84  
AMIRZA786's Avatar
AMIRZA786
Lexus Champion
 
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 14,746
Likes: 2,353
From: California
Default

Originally Posted by RNM GS3
The car policy is hypocritical.
Currently EVs cause much more environmental damage to produce than ICE due to mining needed for battery materials. It takes 50-60k miles for EVs to break even with ICE cars. But this doesn’t take into account all ICE cars that are lightly driven. For example, my M3 is almost 5yrs old but only has 8k miles. Most ppl that own exotics or V8 Mustangs even used them strictly for weekends.

The regular daily drivers that ppl buy NEW today like Camry, RAV4, Civic are really clean running cars that cause little to no pollution and are extremely fuel efficient.

The damage to the earth and environment will be immense due to mining for these batteries. Sure CA will not care because mining will be done in China or some other far away land. But damage to climate will still exist.
Most of what you've written here has already been disproven multiple times. BTW I'm not for the ICE ban, just for the record. You can quote me on that
Old 08-26-22 | 10:13 AM
  #85  
LeX2K's Avatar
LeX2K
Lexus Fanatic
 
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 21,064
Likes: 3,170
From: Alberta
Default

Originally Posted by RNM GS3
The car policy is hypocritical.
Currently EVs cause much more environmental damage to produce than ICE due to mining needed for battery materials. It takes 50-60k miles for EVs to break even with ICE cars. But this doesn’t take into account all ICE cars that are lightly driven. For example, my M3 is almost 5yrs old but only has 8k miles. Most ppl that own exotics or V8 Mustangs even used them strictly for weekends.

The regular daily drivers that ppl buy NEW today like Camry, RAV4, Civic are really clean running cars that cause little to no pollution and are extremely fuel efficient.

The damage to the earth and environment will be immense due to mining for these batteries. Sure CA will not care because mining will be done in China or some other far away land. But damage to climate will still exist.
Are you intentionally posting misinformation? Especially...

cars that cause little to no pollution
I'm going to go ahead and say you know full well this is false.
Old 08-26-22 | 10:24 AM
  #86  
AMIRZA786's Avatar
AMIRZA786
Lexus Champion
 
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 14,746
Likes: 2,353
From: California
Default

Let me put myself on the record here. I am not for the ICE ban. I don't really believe California is going to ban ICE vehicles, and if I have to vote on it, I will vote against an ICE ban in an instant. I believe the markets will determine the death of ICE because once most people (people not named Stiker223 ) start getting their hands on EV's, they will determine for themselves how much better they are. Right now in California there is no ICE ban, yet the rate of EV adoption is doubling every year. And if I'm wrong, than again, the market will determine that I'm wrong
Old 08-26-22 | 10:36 AM
  #87  
SailorTPD's Avatar
SailorTPD
Intermediate
 
Joined: Sep 2021
Posts: 309
Likes: 73
From: CA
Default

Originally Posted by AMIRZA786
I really don't like to use the word "poor", but those lower on the income pole will do what they do now, buy used cars. in 20 years the market will have lots of used EV's, and really the most expensive part (among it's limited amount of parts) is the battery pack, which with current technology lasts about 16 years. By then battery packs will be cheaper. Prius battery and other hybrid battery packs were $10K 15 years ago, a couple of years back my friend bought a used Prius and changed the battery pack for under $1000. I was just looking at Nissan Leaf battery pack replacements, and they are under $2K with full warranty.

Anyway I know this is all going to go on deaf ears for most, but I thought it would be worth a shot
Poor is a good word; it describes in one syllable what you took 6 words to say. If you consider it offensive, that's in your head--can't seem to wrap my head around why folks get offended by reality. In any event, if you honestly think batteries will get cheaper, you may be right, but I'm skeptical (as well as cynical and paranoid (that's in my head)). I still consider the ban a political stunt designed to stabilize voting districts so they don't have to keep gerrymandering boundaries.
Old 08-26-22 | 10:45 AM
  #88  
AMIRZA786's Avatar
AMIRZA786
Lexus Champion
 
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 14,746
Likes: 2,353
From: California
Default

Originally Posted by SailorTPD
Poor is a good word; it describes in one syllable what you took 6 words to say. If you consider it offensive, that's in your head--can't seem to wrap my head around why folks get offended by reality. In any event, if you honestly think batteries will get cheaper, you may be right, but I'm skeptical (as well as cynical and paranoid (that's in my head)). I still consider the ban a political stunt designed to stabilize voting districts so they don't have to keep gerrymandering boundaries.
I guess you are right, I just don't like put people in a certain category. Yes, it's definitely a political stunt. In the end I don't believe California is going to ban ICE. As an owner of two EV's and as you can tell an advocate of EV's, I say let the market determine the fate of either ICE of EV. But By the way EV's are being adopted out here, I believe strongly ICE sales will just die on their own. If I'm wrong, then I'll accept that and people can go back and pull this from the archives.

Batteries can only get cheaper. That is the nature of almost every product produced. I just bought a TV for for $1300 that was $5K when it first came out. The market sets prices in the end
Old 08-26-22 | 10:45 AM
  #89  
RNM GS3's Avatar
RNM GS3
Lexus Test Driver
 
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 7,331
Likes: 73
From: New York
Default

Originally Posted by AMIRZA786
Most of what you've written here has already been disproven multiple times. BTW I'm not for the ICE ban, just for the record. You can quote me on that
Please advise which part was disproved? The mining for rare earth materials for production of MILLIONS of batteries annually will cause huge damage to the earth.
The current EVs at 0 miles have caused way more pollution compared to new ICE vehicles at 0 miles.

Originally Posted by LeX2K
Are you intentionally posting misinformation? Especially...


I'm going to go ahead and say you know full well this is false.
See above and watch this educational video:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=S1E8SQde5rk
Old 08-26-22 | 10:49 AM
  #90  
AMIRZA786's Avatar
AMIRZA786
Lexus Champion
 
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 14,746
Likes: 2,353
From: California
Default

Originally Posted by RNM GS3
Please advise which part was disproved? The mining for rare earth materials for production of MILLIONS of batteries annually will cause huge damage to the earth.
The current EVs at 0 miles have caused way more pollution compared to new ICE vehicles at 0 miles.
Everything you said here is easily disproved, but I have to ask you, do you really care about the environment? I mean, do you really care or only in the case of EV's care? Does mining for millions of batteries that damages the earth keep you awake at night? I suspect not



All times are GMT -7. The time now is 02:20 PM.