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Old 12-18-22 | 01:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Striker223
That plus they can't raise it much past 5% even if then wanted to, they would not be able to service interest payments past that.
It doesn’t help that the energy policies in the developed world are now too restricting and punitive.
Old 12-18-22 | 01:13 PM
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Originally Posted by SW17LS
These things don’t just happen out of the blue, there are precursors and causes. There is nothing in the economy that would cause an economic downturn like we saw in 2008. Bear in mind the economy is still growing and adding jobs despite the high inflation, and inflation is cooling not continuing to rise.
We were staring at the abyss in 08 after Lehman per Bernanke. I don't think anyone sees that happening again.

Jobs are different. Philadelphia Federal Reserve says 10K jobs were added in the US in Q2, NOT 1 million. The labor market is so screwed up. The fact one of the Fed branches even published this report is shocking.

Last edited by LH1; 12-18-22 at 01:25 PM.
Old 12-18-22 | 01:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Striker223
Normal target is 2% and 3.5+ is bad for the currency long term
Thats the target, but average inflation over the past 60 years is between 3.5-4%.

Originally Posted by LexsCTJill
I would like to see them crush inflation. No soft landing. Paul Volcker type. This would be the reality check everyone needs including the politicians.
That would needlessly hurt many people. Not going to happen.

Originally Posted by LH1
Rates will hover in the 5%-6% range next year. There's no Volcker stuff coming.
Exactly.
Old 12-18-22 | 01:26 PM
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Originally Posted by LH1
Rates will hover in the 5%-6% range next year. There's no Volcker stuff coming.
So they say. Remember when we were told inflation was “transitory” or remember when we were told it was because of “supply chains” and once they got corrected inflation would come down.
Old 12-18-22 | 01:30 PM
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Oh I definitely remember when Powell said "transitory" and we all laughed.
Old 12-18-22 | 01:35 PM
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Originally Posted by SW17LS
Thats the target, but average inflation over the past 60 years is between 3.5-4%.



That would needlessly hurt many people. Not going to happen.



Exactly.
I'm aware of that and if you look at just the last 20 years you can see why that has been an issue. Half of normal purchasing power is gone
Old 12-18-22 | 01:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Striker223
I'm aware of that and if you look at just the last 20 years you can see why that has been an issue. Half of normal purchasing power is gone
Yet for most of the last 20 years we had extremely low inflation...
Old 12-18-22 | 01:38 PM
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Originally Posted by SW17LS
Yet for most of the last 20 years we had extremely low inflation...
‘From 1983 to 2022…inflation never exceeded 5%. Now it’s over 5%

Originally Posted by LH1
Oh I definitely remember when Powell said "transitory" and we all laughed.
Also the strategic petroleum reserve was released. So energy is a little cheaper than it would be if left untouched. Inflation would tick higher
Old 12-18-22 | 01:42 PM
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they are offering MSRP for my bro now, but have lame add ons instead like $3500 for xpel front bra, tint and door jams
Old 12-18-22 | 01:47 PM
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Originally Posted by SW17LS
Yet for most of the last 20 years we had extremely low inflation...
if you use the post 1980 calculations of what govt used to measure inflation at, its not low. Of course the new adjustments always result in lower than what it would've been previously, convenient

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate...flation-charts
Old 12-18-22 | 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted by SW17LS
Yet for most of the last 20 years we had extremely low inflation...
No it's been higher than ideal, the core figure doesn't account for overall money supply introduced by certain types of loans but I won't get into that since this isn't the place.
Old 12-18-22 | 01:50 PM
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Originally Posted by LexsCTJill
‘From 1983 to 2022…inflation never exceeded 5%. Now it’s over 5%
And it will go back down.
Old 12-18-22 | 01:58 PM
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It's going to be funny this time next year when Dealers are saying "can you please come in and buy this car?"
Old 12-18-22 | 01:58 PM
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Originally Posted by SW17LS
And it will go back down.
or it can get stuck.
Old 12-18-22 | 01:58 PM
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Originally Posted by LH1
Rates will hover in the 5%-6% range next year. There's no Volcker stuff coming.
We all have a crystal ball, so we shall see how it goes. Things can change very quickly.



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