Lexusel

In between my lust for the LS (2014/2015 CPO)... I keep going back to buying a new ES. I currently have a 2009 Pilot touring with 192K miles... it has served me well driving the kids everywhere. Now I have two teens and I am ready to get back into a car. My dilemma is whether to get one of the great deals on a 2017 UL or wait until the redesign in 2019. Any thoughts or hints on what the changes may include? Is anyone else having the same debate?

lesz

https://www.clublexus.com/forums/es-...-lexus-es.html

BradTank

I would find a used ES 350 that's in clean shape. Then you can decide if you like the 2019+ ES models and sell the previous ES and not take as big a hit on it. Or just keep it.

I came really close to a new ES350 but found one in really nice shape for about literally half the price and it was still under the manufacturer's warranty.

I do like the grill on the newest models but otherwise its essentially 98% the same car for this entire generation.

lesz

I wouldn't consider buying a Generation 6 ES, whether it be a new 2017 or a used one that was a few years old, unless I was pretty confident that I'd be keeping it for at least 3 or 4 years because, as soon as the 2019s hit the showrooms, any 2013-2018 ES will immediately take a bigger than normal depreciation hit to its value because it will no longer be the current generation of the ES.

Also, with regard to waiting to buy a 2019 ES, buyers should expect to pay substantially more than they would be paying for a 2017 ES now. With the current discounting and rebates, people are now buying 2017 ESs for 18-20% off from MSRP. When the 2019s hit the showrooms, not only will there likely be an increase in MSRP over that of the 2017s, but discounting will be much more modest until well into the 2019 model year. I'd expect, for example that a 2019 UL ES, because of the higher MSRP and the lower discounting, will cost, well into 2019, somewhere in the range of $7000-8000 over what people are currently paying for a 2017 UL ES

So, for me, the bottom line is that, if I thought I'd be keeping the car for several years, now is a great time to be buying an ES. On the other hand, I don't think that I'd be inclined to buy a Generation 6 ES, either new or used, now and to trade it for a 2019 ES 18 months from now because the limited discounting on the 2019s and the hit that a Generation 6 ES will take in its value as soon as the 2019s are available will mean paying a premium price to move to the 2019. Instead, if I thought that I'd really want a 2019 ES, I'd just stick with the car I have now and wait for the 2019s to arrive.

BradTank

Any late model car is going to take a hit with time, but I don't think you're going to see it fall off a cliff in value.
Lexus models tend to do much better than other cars in that regard even when new generations are introduced. I still see $15k+ 5th generation ES models on the used market, and we're almost completely through with the 6th generation now.

But if you're unsure, a used model at least hedges you bet some so you don't take as big a bath on it. If you buy a brand new 2017 and decide to sell it and get a 2019 model, it's a bigger hit in total dollars.

I think though the OP though might be happier with a used LS.

bc6152

I have a beautiful pristine 2013 with 12,738 miles on it. No scratches, scrapes or dents. Everything works. This baby is going bye-bye when the 2019's hit the showroom. Wish it was this year...

autotech13

bc6152, I too have a pristine 2013 ES 350 Cerulean Blue with 6,000 miles on her. Right now it's the garage queen until I get a new 2018 RX.

lesz

I'm going to stick with my assertion that there is a significantly larger depreciation hit for a used car when it is no longer the current generation for the particular model.

For example, I just checked the trade-in values of the 2012, 2013, and 2014 ES on KBB. The difference in value between a 2013 and a 2014 ES (both Generation 6) with the same equipment and condition is only $1100, but the difference between the value of a 2013 ES (Generation 6), and a 2012 ES (Generation 5) with the same equipment and condition is almost $4000.

A similar difference in values can be seen when you compare the current values of the 2006 Generation 4 ES to those of the 2007 Generation 5 ES.

Once a car is no longer in the current generation, its demand and, subsequently, its value drop significantly. I'm confident that the values of Generation 6 ESs will take a similar hit when the 2019 Generation 7 ES hits the dealer showrooms, not only because the demand for Generation 6 ESs will be lower, but, also, because, when the 2019s arrive, many Generation 6 ES owners will be trading them in, which will increase the supply of Generation 6 ESs on the used car market. Lower demand and higher supply always translates into depressed prices.

Coulter

I would disagree, there will be a small hit, but it's not usually significant on these types of cars. Where you'll sometimes see a big fall off if its a car that has a specific following like a Corvette.


There's just spots of depreciation on all car brands regardless of the model cycle that fall off quickly because after a certain age and/or mileage.

So what are you think a used 2018 ES350 will be worth with the 2019's come out? Right now a 1 year old ES 350 is like $28-$30k depending on options. My guess is a 2018 will be worth about the same when the 2019's come out. It's certainly not going to crater to like $20k, people will be scooping them up if it's that "significant" of depreciation for a 1 year old Lexus.

lesz

No, the used value of a 2018, when the 2019s arrive, won't drop by $8000 more than it would have if the 2019s weren't a new generation, but I'm confident in guessing that the used value of a 2018, when the 2019s arrive, will drop by $2000-3000 more than it would have dropped had the 2019s still been Generation 6 cars.

In 2008, I bought I used 2006 ES. The reason why I chose to buy the 2006 (last year for Generation 4) was because the prices on those used 2006s dropped significantly when the 2007 (first year for Generation 7) became available, and the difference in price between the used 2006s and used 2007s was a good $2500 greater than what you would have expected had the 2006 ES and 2007 ES been of the same generation.

Those of us who own a Generation 6 ES may not want to have to accept the reality that our cars will take a bigger than normal hit in their values when the Generation 7 ES becomes a reality, but the law of supply and demand virtually assures that that will happen.

Freds430

I am negotiating right now on a 2017 ES300h with a great discount. Back of my mind I am thinking I should wait one year for the new 2019. Hoping for heads up display, wireless charging pad and Android Auto.

Gekko

wait for the all-new 2019 redesigned model - otherwise you may regret it. new model will be unveiled in ~6 months and available in ~12 months. time flies it will be here before you know it.

sderman

And then the question is do you want to buy the first year of production? I usually wait for the second year (e.g., my 2014 ES and 2017 RX) when at least some of the bugs are worked out and the prices are more negotiable once the early adopters are out of the picture. In addition, once the first year is out, I get a better idea of the options that I want based on the forum conversations and recommendations.

Coulter

$2,500 is not "significant" in my book, that's about the price of a single extra option like navigation on these cars. Having the "wrong" color can make a price swing by that much.

You make it sound like some massive hit in resale and everybody better steer clear and not have a 6th generation ES in their possession because the bottom is going to fall out.

I certainly wouldn't strategically "not buy" an ES or sell it early over something like a new ES model being introduced.

Lexusel

Thanks for the responses. I tend to keep my cars which makes me lean towards waiting. That being said, I keep getting swayed by the goof pricing right now.