As a data point, I did a look last week (before committing on an incoming base 300h) and there were no 2023 ES luxury or ultra available in any of the great state of Texas. I also could not find any ML sound system upgrades.

I personally think the chip disruption will continue and especially impact cars that have a lot of electronic options. It certainly is today - it is harder to find well equipped cars as well as hybrids - both having more electronics. I don't know how Lexus decides which cars to make and have no historical perspective, but in my recent shopping experience, I was a bit surprised to see no Luxury (or UL) options - for a few reasons - there isn't much of a price difference between a reasonably equipped base ES (with say the premium package) and a Luxury - I would have thought features that were only available on the Luxury or UL - especially the actual leather vs nuluxe would make it a much more popular car and that they would make more of them. Also - I will end up at around 50K MSRP on mine - and the UL with leather, window shades, all the same add-ons as the one I am getting, AND adding on the ML stereo, is only 5k more ... which to me is like a no brainer to spend the extra money on UL. Why wouldn't Lexus make more of the higher margin, more desirable cars that really aren't that much more expensive than a reasonably equipped base, if they could?

Finally, when I asked my magic 8 ball the question if the chip shortage is going to continue to next year, it responded: As I see it, Yes. So there you have it.

 

The irony is that your magic ball’s guess is probably just as good as ours!

 

I have a great deal of confidence that the magic 8 ball was right.

 

Historically, premium packages and F Sports are the highest volume output/sellers, but the lack of Lux. and Ultra Lux. is due to production issues. In terms of how production is determined and what vehicles are allocated to dealers is more simple than the overall process of Mix Planning that goes on with Toyota/Lexus. It can get very complicated, but one less detailed explanation of how vehicles are allocated is based on several factors. First, based on sales and the allocated vehicle templates are based on what sells the best for each dealer, or at least this is one way it's determined what vehicles that dealership gets. With the low inventory levels, Lexus vehicles-- especially ESs, the stock doesn't sit long. There are no shortages of customers that will ****** up whatever the dealership has available. Often cars are sold before they even hit the lots.

Your magic eight ball is just as good as anyone's guess when things will turn around. But, unfortunately, at every turn, there is a different challenge to complicate further and frustrate.

 

What often makes me shake my head, though, is how sometimes a dealer will be sent 4 or 5 of the same model in the same color and only, therefore, be able to offer a choice between two or three colors. Makes me feel badly for the dealer. Must be purely unfortunate coincidence.
I also recall many years ago, I was in the market for a new Miata. Called all over the region for the one I wanted. No luck. Then, just to be complete, I called a Nissan/Miata dealership in poor, rural PA, on the edge of Appalachia. Sure enough they had one of the rare special M edition models I wanted, left over from previous model year. Ran down there immediately. Owner complained that Mazda had shipped him this loaded, beautiful car and it was the last car in the world he wanted there. He sold mostly Mazda trucks, vans and used cars in that rural, economically stressed demographic. This car had been pathetically sitting on his showroom floor, gathering dust for 7 months and he just wanted rid of it! It was a 1995 model in spring of 1996. He gave me a terrific deal and we were both thrilled! I've enjoyed this wonderful and beloved Miata, now 27 years old, to this day!
I guess the dealers have their share of headaches, too!

 

I like how it was when I bought my ES and the dealer was chasing me for a month or two to close the deal

 

And Lexus threw in a $1500 rebate on a new 350 ES to incentivize me!

 

I keep hearing that we have a surplus of chips now but a lack of chips is holding back automotive production? I guess there must be specialty chips for these cars with limited production.

 

I tend to think the auto dealerships (all of them) are still on a high of supply/demand. Eventually the supply is going to keep increasing and the interest rates will ensure demand slows down. Add the fact that October has seen repossession totals eclipse other years on current cars, which will flood the used car market. I myself have no problem waiting for the right car under the right conditions. Dealerships have been way too spoiled and it will slowly be correcting soon IMHO.

 

White with black, pano roof.

https://www.augustalexus.com/invento...dz1b12pu141436

2022 UL

https://www.augustalexus.com/invento...fz1b16nu137170

Iridium with pano

https://www.augustalexus.com/invento...dz1b12pu139766

 

A New Ultra Luxury and all I can do is fixate on Auto Butler

 

Perhaps because like a lot of things, all chips are not all the same or usable across product lines. Many are designed for specific uses and tasks and can't be easily substituted for. The news media - and worse, our legion of moronic on air pundits - like everything to be be super simple, black and white, we have chips or we don't have chips. You see the same with oil. Not all oil out of the ground is the same and not every refinery can use every type of oil, quite the contrary actually, yet you'd never have an inkling of that from the "news" where a barrel of oil is a barrel of oil.

 

I was also noticing the $599 deal closing fee ...

 

The party is just about over for used car dealers. Condolences to those that own Carvana shares.

 

I didn't have any Carvana shares but I sold two of my cars (2013 Volvo and 2015 Corolla) to them rather than trade at the dealer. They were far more generous than the Lexus dealer's offer when I bought my new 350 ES and were a pleasure to do business with. Breath off fresh air. I will miss them.